10.2a Oct. 2012 Edition

[wBear]

Ohhhh ok, I was so confused when you said bear candle and I was looking at the 4H. Makes a lot more sense now. I will need to start confirming with 1H time frames for a try.

Yes, sorry. I quickly edited my reply the moment I realized it myself. Please please do watch the PA & currency strength if you do take the trade. We'll never know what may happen. If it doesn't work out, then we should already know the next course of action.

[thelearner]

AUDUSD and AUDJPY is really confusing since yesterday... keep retracing back to DP. any idea on where to put the SL?

[wBear]

AUDUSD and AUDJPY is really confusing since yesterday... keep retracing back to DP. any idea on where to put the SL?

Agree. Many pairs were as well. Today looks to be the same??

And now, both pairs are doing a run upwards. SL -- hmm, for me, if PA can cross WP, that's the maximum I'm prepared to lose. So, for me, SL is just slightly above WP.

[wBear]

Here's what I think (Bob, by all means please do correct me if my reading is off in usage of 10.2a):

Ever since Oct 2, neither pair did retrace above DP but never crossed WP. Hence, I believe SL for me is slightly above WP. Whether one looks at H1 or H4, both TF says the same thing. We have a medium impact BOJ Shirawaka's Speech soon & Machine Tools Orders (YoY) data release the hour after this.

Hence, even with current run upwards against my taken trades, I'm expecting PA to resist first at H4 resistance and then at WP. If not, it's SL time as I didn't take the 6pips profit just now.

[nanningbob]

I was looking at some 5-15 pip profits this morning and decided to let them ride. I hope they dont turn into losers now. Sometimes you just take what the market gives you which wasnt very much this morning.

SL is such an arbitrary thing. In ranging markets you can always wait them out to get back to 0. Only becomes a problem if price takes off. In ranging markets I always will counter trade a second position and come back to 0 so I dont set SL in ranging markets. If price takes off against me with 2 positions it depends what is moving it. In this market price keeps coming back so not a problem. If a big news then I might just eat the loss. I usually dont decide on a SL until I am faced with my third position and then I make a decision. I almost always take a loss if I go to a 4th position. I dont believe in martingaling so the 4th position requires me to close the first position. That is how I trade. I seldom take losses trading like that since most of my losers are covered by a winner.

If I do set a single stop loss I try to take what I think is the best position for the moment. Outside the WP is my favorite, sometimes the Monthly and sometimes the previous high/low. Depends on how I think the market is doing. Like the eur/usd trade I took two days ago. Tried to play the WP bounce but it didnt happen so took the 20 pip loss. I thought that was the best way to handle the trade at that point.

[nanningbob]

Another example is fundamentals if they are strong. I dont care where euro is going on a sell I know sooner or later the Euro is coming down. When they stop borrowing like crazy to solve their problems then maybe I will use a SL on a sell. Buys however I will cover my rear end with a SL because I dont know when it will come back up again.

AUD and NZD same thing but this time sells. Until Chinese economy picks up again I　know aud and nzd are not going any higher. So sells are very safe but buys are not.

The other currencies I dont know what they will do so I will protect my self more closely on those. That is the discretionary stuff in SL that is hard to teach and understand.

[gustav213]

Right now I just don't see trades I would take. Might skim the charts in a few hours closer to the U.S. open but I don't think I will find something. Overall I don't like forcing trades rather sit on the sidelines than loose pips.

[gustav213]

Another example is fundamentals if they are strong. I dont care where euro is going on a sell I know sooner or later the Euro is coming down. When they stop borrowing like crazy to solve their problems then maybe I will use a SL on a sell. Buys however I will cover my rear end with a SL because I dont know when it will come back up again.

AUD and NZD same thing but this time sells. Until Chinese economy picks up again I　know aud and nzd are not going any higher. So sells are very safe but buys are not.

The other currencies I dont know what they will do so I will protect my self more closely on those. That is the discretionary stuff in SL that is hard to teach and understand.

I do agree with Bob on this, AUD, NZD and EUR will definitely be going lower in the near future so I feel relatively safe doing sells on them right now. I can do a buy but will be a small scalp at the most.

[wBear]

AUDCAD, EURCHF, EURGBP, GBPCHF -- PA is going way away to some "I-don't-know-where land" after looking at each of the individual chart ever since morning till now at Europe open. Those "mixed" can be tricky. Personally, I'm not touching them. For now.

[gustav213]

10-10-2012 2-19-37 AM.png

Everything seems to be ranging so unless I get some big moves I will be out. I'm thinking with talks in Europe and it being a holiday Monday and also the first week of the month, the markets are just calm.