Support, Resistance & Chart patterns

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slipshod
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Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns

Post by slipshod »

madwt wrote:Edit: How do you show your trades on the chart?
I use a few scripts to drag/drop onto the chart to move stops, TP levels and close out entries - for some reason when that happens it draws the line & arrow the same as you see with EA backtesting (if you've ever done that), and in this case I closed out all my positions on friday before going to sleep hence the lines.
Edit 2: You mention compression. E.g. On GBPUSD you say there is lots of compression in the rise, which means it could fall in a heap. Can you elaborate on that?
Compression is a term I picked up recently from www.acegazette.com (great site, you should check it out), which basically means a lot of retracing/backtesting throughout a move. What that tends to do is eliminate any areas of pent-up demand (if its an upwards move) as the frequent retraces give opportunity for everyone to go long who wants to.

So when a reversal comes, there's no big block of pending orders there to stop it in its tracks, it can just smash straight through. GU over the last week is a great example.

Conversely, if the price just flies in series of big candles without a pause, that can be just as fragile - a reversal can do just the same thing in return. Look at UCAD's bouncing up & down in its 80 pip range last week as an example.

What you want to see is a short pause in a strong rise/fall where the move was challenged, followed by a strong breakout move in the same direction. For this to happen, big money has to have decided to chase the price a bit, and their presence overwhelms opposition to the move. This is the kind of thing Sam Seiden describes & its what I identify on my charts as Supply/Demand levels as distinct from the more traditional Support & Resistance. Usually the first or 2nd retrace to a Supply/Demand level will provide a great entry, assuming big money still have a bunch of orders there waiting to be executed.

Almost lunchtime here, will look at your charts later on, thanks for posting them :)
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slipshod
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Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns

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Very nice use of trendlines on your charts madwt, certainly some touches there I wouldn't have thought to look for. I'll be fascinated to see how you trade them. Its all good price-action analysis that doesn't depend on indicators other than the one between our ears :)

Btw one chart I should have shown but didn't was AUDNZD. Right at supply, I shorted it earlier today, at about 30 pips in profit as is an EU long. Nothing else running though, except a UJ short that hit the stoploss. An AUDCAD short is looking very tempting...

Edit: AC tempted me enough to short it, and risked a long on GBPAUD as well seeing as it looked like holding firm off support. Basically I've traded on the basis of the AUD losing strength on most of the cross rates after its bounce-ish gains last week.
madwt
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Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns

Post by madwt »

Slip, Valid WW for long GBPAUD?
If so, can you provide an example on how you might consider entry?
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Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns

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Yes I actually had that marked on my chart, and it helped influence my decision to long it earlier today - but it wasn't a long I was comfortable with. My thoughts in the chart below, hope it makes sense...
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Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns

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Here's another bearish Rising Wedge / Wolfe Wave - EURCAD H4. Its running into a resistance zone formed on the Daily, however while its so strong I wouldn't think of standing in its way with a short. I'd need to see hesitation (doji) H4 or Daily candles or a couple of shooting stars - something to indicate the presence of big selling opposing the move.
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madwt
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Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns

Post by madwt »

Slip, am I understanding you correctly?
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slipshod
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Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns

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Yes your pictures are perfect. Btw to me it really doesn't matter if there's a clear 5 point pattern or not - if there is then great, but if its still clearly a wedge shape then I look to trade it. Case in point - look at EU on daily or H4 in April this year. A definite wedge rising into both a supply zone and a descending trendline with a great bearish reversal off it, yet picking out a proper wolfe wave would be very difficult.

Not sure what you mean about "For Trend up, you stick away from descending wedge" ... ?
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Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns

Post by madwt »

slipshod wrote:Here's another bearish Rising Wedge / Wolfe Wave - EURCAD H4. Its running into a resistance zone formed on the Daily.....
Where you showed EURCAD was the high. Enjoying your charts.
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Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns

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One thing I haven't addressed is, what creates a falling or rising wedge, and why is it a reversal pattern when it looks like such a strong & building trend?

The best I can explain it is that the wedge forms when there's passive resistance to a move. Let's say its an up trend and a rising wedge forms. The lows are rising higher, but successive higher highs are less impressive. It shows there's plenty of enthusiasm & effort being expended to drive the price up, but its running into a bit of a wall - not a brick wall that stops it dead, but a tire wall that gives a bit on impact but nonetheless is stopping the out of control racecar.

If the price has already rallied quite a distance before this wedge forms, and it's into an area previously identified as Supply or Resistance on the chart, you'd have to question who it is that's doing the buying, and who the passive sellers are. By passive I mean that they're taking opportunity on every rise to sell, but they're not interested yet in driving down the price, hence the higher lows each time.

A Wolfe Wave forms when the price succeeds in blowing out the top of the wedge, and usually its the last frenzied effort from the bulls as they appear to have broken through the resistance. In reality this effort exhausts them, and the big money sellers are now free to take over and mark the price sharply down having used the wedge to gradually load up their short position.

The other time the wedge can form is off a base - lets say the price has been falling, hits an area of support and starts to bounce. As it rises, it immediately forms an ascending wedge. Do you short on the assumption that its a reversal pattern signifying that the previous downtrend will continue? This is always a tough one. A wedge like this can form because big money are loading up long but trying hard not to drive up the price, but the small-fry sellers are thinning out & the price is starting to run despite their best efforts. When this happens there's no reversal, but instead a strong upwards spike - that's why I try and avoid trading wedges in that context.
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Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns

Post by madwt »

slipshod wrote:....Not sure what you mean about "For Trend up, you stick away from descending wedge" ... ?
Hi Slip,

In the example you provided, there is one aspect that was not 100% clear, so that is what I was trying to clarify with that statement. I have boxed the words in the picture below that is not 100% clear.
ww.png
In essence, when you enter a trade (range trading aside), you are either entering with a trend (joining the trend), or you are entering counter trend. What I think you are saying is that you use a wolf wave to enter counter trend as those are the best trades. And you prefer not to use a wolf wave to join a trend.

For example...

You posted a chart of GBPAUD and it has two orange wedges. The descending wedge broke point 5 and you entered a long trade (which then closed soon after as it could be breach the last supply zone). In my view, GBPAUD is currently in an up trend, the entry was joining the trend, not counter trend.

Is that what you were trying to say? Apologies if I am confusing something simple.
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