10.2a Oct. 2012 Edition

[POH]

story of my life in one picture here, just hit sl now.. its always 1 step forward 2 steps back with these pips. Trade lasted 9 mins from entry to sl.. even with everything going the right way never have i made pips that quickly. I keep trying and trying and I still just can't win.

[atharmian]

Bob,

Newbie here, demo training since Sep 4, but in plus somehow; started reading your thread here after having jumped from other fora (FF, TSD, ...)

What I like much about your 10.2A (after having read all the docs on 10.2 and 10.2A update) is that things are really simple with 10.2A- just align the DWM pivots and trade with a price crossing up/down the alignment.

1. However, what I see is that you don't always care about the DP>WP>MP line up for buys (and vice versa). I assume this is your own developed instinct?

2. I am curious to know whether anyone you know has actually coded your observations on currency groups which are very nicely laid out (their volatility, Pivots, SR1 and SR2 behavior and overlaps, much as folks here are coding your trading strategy as EAs?

(I am citing your 3. WEEKLY AND MONTHLY PIVOT LINES booklet for 10.2.) This background info looks very critical in live trading.

For example, in either the current indys or an EA, one could bring up a template of currency pair comparisons and behavior in a particular pair chart; for helpful suggestions t likelihood rules, e.g. Group 4 gbpjpy- 300 pips /week or more 50-75% of time. Best plays outsides SR2, pivot cross also good trade etc., and aligning such comments with the specific price and P, SR points reached.

Above would be very helpful since most traders cannot remember such guidelines on the spot ! This could provide for some very powerful trading, as more rules can be added and edited.

3. Coolncalm has started his own CTS thread for lower TFs. What are your thoughts on any common approaches ?

High Regards,
Athar.

PS. My engineering professor taught at UColorado-Boulder some years ago, and loved the area. Rocky Mountain high !

[nanningbob]

Bob,

Newbie here, demo training since Sep 4, but in plus somehow; started reading your thread here after having jumped from other fora (FF, TSD, ...)

What I like much about your 10.2A (after having read all the docs on 10.2 and 10.2A update) is that things are really simple with 10.2A- just align the DWM pivots and trade with a price crossing up/down the alignment.

1. However, what I see is that you don't always care about the DP>WP>MP line up for buys (and vice versa). I assume this is your own developed instinct?

2. I am curious to know whether anyone you know has actually coded your observations on currency groups which are very nicely laid out (their volatility, Pivots, SR1 and SR2 behavior and overlaps, much as folks here are coding your trading strategy as EAs?

(I am citing your 3. WEEKLY AND MONTHLY PIVOT LINES booklet for 10.2.) This background info looks very critical in live trading.

For example, in either the current indys or an EA, one could bring up a template of currency pair comparisons and behavior in a particular pair chart; for helpful suggestions t likelihood rules, e.g. Group 4 gbpjpy- 300 pips /week or more 50-75% of time. Best plays outsides SR2, pivot cross also good trade etc., and aligning such comments with the specific price and P, SR points reached.

Above would be very helpful since most traders cannot remember such guidelines on the spot ! This could provide for some very powerful trading, as more rules can be added and edited.

3. Coolncalm has started his own CTS thread for lower TFs. What are your thoughts on any common approaches ?

High Regards,
Athar.

PS. My engineering professor taught at UColorado-Boulder some years ago, and loved the area. Rocky Mountain high !

My wife is from Ft. Collins and my brother is a teacher in Woodland Park. I do get to Colorado a couple of times a decade. The kind of research this takes is very time consuming and takes a lot of painstacking work. I admire guys who have done that. I did a volatility chart on about 25 pairs but the info is probably a bit old now but probably still valid. I have attached my studies on how often each pair will range in one week. How often it will go over 300 pips, 600 pips, 900 pips etc. and their biggest known move in the last 5-10 years. The second study is a volatility rating I gave each pair since Oct. 2008 and after April 2009. I dont know if this will meet your needs but you can look at them and see. I know it is not quite what you were looking for but many of my trading theories came out of those studies.

1. However, what I see is that you don't always care about the DP>WP>MP line up for buys (and vice versa). I assume this is your own developed instinct?

I will take trades also based on my understanding of fundamentals. For example last year with all the bad news in Europe and the Greece thing I did not even try a buy trade on any Euro pair for over 6 months. Right now I will not take any buy trades on any aud or nzd pair because of the slowing down of China's economy. I have done OK with the AUD but have struggled with the NZD. I got blind sided this summer when the CHF bank refused to let traders use CHF as a safe haven currency so the NZD became one by default. This has kept its price up even though fundamentally it should be giving some by now. Hasnt happened yet but I still expect it too. My thinking is the NZD and AUD have gone about as high as they possibly can go so their only direction will be down or holding. AUD has slipped NZD has not. So yes I will trade outside the system if I think the fundamentals are right.

For example if Spain starts becoming big news then I will not do any buying on the Euro but will just sell when I see opportunity. So that is the experience part of trading. I hate fundamentals though because they can be interrupted at anytime by govt, national bank action, or some other crazy event. How was I suppose to know that the NZD would become a safe haven currency. Sheeeeeeeesh.

[nanningbob]

story of my life in one picture here, just hit sl now.. its always 1 step forward 2 steps back with these pips. Trade lasted 9 mins from entry to sl.. even with everything going the right way never have i made pips that quickly. I keep trying and trying and I still just can't win.

Not a whole lot of action going on out there. I have had just one really good trade in two days and that was the cad/jpy for almost 40 pips so really not much out there. With the big storm in the USA and elections it seems the market just wants to sit until something happens. I hope it doesnt stay like this all the way to the USA elections.

[atharmian]

Bob,

Thanks for the zip file which I will look at carefully... unluckily I am not a coder myself, but am sure someone will notice over the next couple days and at least put these facts in some kind of matrix that pops up alongside as trading notes and alerts to pending trades or warnings not to trade !

Re: your fundamentals observations, cannot agree more !!! Looking at my audusd (sell for 2 weeks) and nzdjpy (buy for 1 week) and both show unrealized losses, even though there is so much noise about BOJ depressing the Yen and a weak US$.

So I guess that even after the RBA rate cut, the fact is that the AUD still has the highest interest rate, and the NZD is probably looking at a potential rate cut even though the new NZ governor has issued clarifications after his earlier conference where he implied rate cuts. Overall the theme is that with US doing QE3+ and US corporate earnings finally peaking after 4+ years, the traditional risk-on, carry trade is still going on with AUD, and NZD is a short term question.

Well, the problem is that there is trouble everywhere... I noticed that CBOE VIX has gone up, almost doubled since its halcyon VIX= 12 August days, and is now above its 200 day average. I wish someone could code, along the lines of Currency Strength an overall currency market intraday volatility readings (very different from stock and futures markets volatility with forex's 24/5 and $4T/day operation) with standard deviations in mind, much as VIX is calculated, as a handy tool.

Regards,
Athar.

[atharmian]

...oops I meant a stronger USD in the 2nd paragraph, re: AUDUSD Sell.

[thelearner]

Slowwww market again today....T_T Just hit my PO at EA and EG sell....probably too early since the h4slope not telling to sell. Tight TP and SL for these ones. Yawn.....i think we should just take a nap

[nanningbob]

Go look at 10.3 I was bored so I invented a scalping/range system.

[atharmian]

Bob,

Where is 10.3 located? Looks like a major upgrade after the 10.2x series?

Athar.

Go look at 10.3 I was bored so I invented a scalping/range system.

[mobthehop]

Atharmian - in case you haven't located it yet - http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... f=38&t=919