nanningbob wrote:have placed 7 trades for today
usdcad waiting to enter
usdchf took this trade off the board, went the wrong way no entrance
euraud +5
eurnzd +33
gbpnzd open trade
gbpaud open trade
gbpchf. off the board not taken
gbp/cad +23
chf/jpy
So a little of everything no jpy so far though.
I did not fair as well last night. I set up 7 trades after JPY open and before going to bed (I'm running this on Cowboy IBFX right now so my open in like Bob's on that crim.) Several triggered right away and some after bed. All hit s/l
Lesson for me is I think I entered the trades too early, before any retracement could happen and then got taken out on the retracement. Have to see if I can get some recovery trades this morning.
I'm new here (but not new to trading) and I too have been bored waiting on the market and was looking for a day trading system. Luckily I decided to check my mailbox here and found this! Since there is some confusion reading the posts as far as when to enter a trade, I thought I'd share what I tested today using the DPDO ( I have started calling it the "Dippity Do" system, haha!).
I decided to throw away all the confusion of when to enter or waiting for a retrace and placed my imaginary trades IMMEDIATELY at the close/open of the day. I too use MB Trading, so my daily open is at midnight EST...a few hours before London open. So all these results are based off my closing time and my pivot lines. I decided to use a minimum and maximum distance between the DP and DO, mainly because a quick visual seemed to show very small gaps between the lines often signal reversals (though I don't have stats to prove it), and large gaps require too big a run to get at least 1:1. I only tested EURUSD, but the results were pretty good. So it went like this:
RULES
-- tested EURUSD from Aug 1 to Oct 31, 2012
-- Minimum DPDO gap = 10 pips, Maximum DPDO gap = 30 pips
-- Open trade immediately at daily open, in direction of DPDO
-- Stoploss 5 pips behind DP
RESULTS
-- Total trades = 40
-- Losses = 15 (37.5%)
-- Wins of 1:1 OR MORE = 25 (62.5%)
-- Wins of 2:1 OR MORE = 16 (40%)
With most any system I ever trade, I usually either take half profit off at 1:1 and move the other half to breakeven and let it ride...or I just move to BE at 1:1 and let the whole thing ride. As you can see, this would give me a 62.5% success rate over the test period. Even if you were to, for example, move your stop to break even at 1:1 and take profit at 2:1, you would still be turning a profit as your success rate hitting your 2:1 target is about equal (slightly higher) than your losses, but your wins are worth double your losses. Also, let's not forget that many of those 2:1 trades actually went much higher, so if you were letting it ride with a trailing stop of some kind, you could have had much better return.
Anyway, that was my quick little experiment. Simple systems are always the best, and this one certainly has my interest! Thanks for sharing your ideas Bob!
Jack
EDIT -- forgot to mention I was also ignoring "Sundays"
Last edited by jdwbryan on Fri Nov 02, 2012 1:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
have placed 7 trades for today
usdcad -12 hit TS
usdchf took this trade off the board, went the wrong way no entrance
euraud +5
eurnzd +33
gbpnzd +46
gbpaud +16
gbpchf. off the board not taken
gbp/cad +23
chf/jpy no trade
So a little of everything no jpy so far though.
nanningbob wrote:have placed 7 trades for today
usdcad -12 hit TS
usdchf took this trade off the board, went the wrong way no entrance
euraud +5
eurnzd +33
gbpnzd +46
gbpaud +16
gbpchf. off the board not taken
gbp/cad +23
chf/jpy no trade
So a little of everything no jpy so far though.
123 -12 = 111 All trades closed for the night.
Thanks Bob, great results. I'll pour over these this weekend.
nanningbob wrote:have placed 7 trades for today
usdcad -12 hit TS
usdchf took this trade off the board, went the wrong way no entrance
euraud +5
eurnzd +33
gbpnzd +46
gbpaud +16
gbpchf. off the board not taken
gbp/cad +23
chf/jpy no trade
So a little of everything no jpy so far though.
123 -12 = 111 All trades closed for the night.
Bob
Correct me if I wrong, but it seems that your criteria for entering one of these trades is a little arbitrary.
As per jdwbryan - if using 5P beyond the DP as a stop, an indicator drawing lines at 1:1 and 2:1 would be nice to see on the chart (using the distance between DP and Open plus 5P)
Except for a couple of trades I try to be within 5 pips of the red line for entrance. Stuff like crossing 100 lines I will place above or below. I also am consulting the 10.2 to make sure there is not a weekly or monthly pivot also nearby to bounce off of. I use the numbers of pips to next S/R lines to determine TP. Large pip spread pairs I put 10-15 pips away, lower pip spread pairs 5-10. I try to make sure the trade can get me over 20 pips to the nearest S/R lines or I dont think there is enough room to risk a trade.
I have been setting 15-20 pip TS to lessen my losses on trades that bounce back on you. This has really helped in keeping my win to loss ratio closer to 3 or 4:1. So I set up a minimum 1.5:1 or 2:1 ratio on a trade but the TS ends up making it a higher ratio as it moves the SL up on trades. My studies have shown that if you dont get close to the 3:1 win to loss ratio on trades in scalping the spreads eat up a lot of profit.
For example if you have a 20 pip profit and pay 2 pips that is 10% 3 pips is 15%. That is steep, that is why most people lose money scalping. If you set SL at 15 it takes more than one winner to offset 1 loser. Your SL is really 13 at 2 pips and 12 at 3 pips because you lose 2 or 3 pips for spread and the profit really must run 22 or 23 pips. Pulling that SL up makes the ratios work in your favor much better even though it may knock you out early sometimes.
Volatile pairs like eurnzd and gbpnzd you really need to look at 30-50 pip profits to over come their 4-8 pip spreads and be consistently profitable. Anyways that is why scalping EAs are almost impossible to write. That Take profit S1/R1 line needs to be considered whether it gives you enough room to take a trade. Is it profitable enough to make the trade??
Don thanks for allpairs10.3110112 - but when I load it I get 13 pairs each showing two times - other wise works great (this also happen to be with the allpairs CTS?
nanningbob wrote:Except for a couple of trades I try to be within 5 pips of the red line for entrance. Stuff like crossing 100 lines I will place above or below. I also am consulting the 10.2 to make sure there is not a weekly or monthly pivot also nearby to bounce off of. I use the numbers of pips to next S/R lines to determine TP. Large pip spread pairs I put 10-15 pips away, lower pip spread pairs 5-10. I try to make sure the trade can get me over 20 pips to the nearest S/R lines or I dont think there is enough room to risk a trade. Just some thoughts for now. I have been setting 15- 20 pip TS to lessen my losses on trades that bounce back on you. This has really helped in keeping my win to loss ratio closer to 3 or 4:1. So I set up a minimum 1.5:1 or 2:1 ratio on a trade but the TS ends up making it a higher ratio as it moves the SL up on trades. My studies have shown that if you dont get close to the 3:1 win to loss ratio on trades in scalping the spreads eat up a lot of profit.
For example if you have a 20 pip profit and pay 2 pips that is 10% 3 pips is 15%. That is steep, that is why most people lose money scalping. If you set SL at 15 it takes more than one winner to offset 1 loser. Your SL is really 13 at 2 pips and 12 at 3 pips because you lose 2 or 3 pips for spread and the profit really must run 22 or 23 pips. Pulling that SL up makes the ratios work in your favor much better even though it may knock you out early sometimes.
Volatile pairs like eurnzd and gbpnzd you really need to look at 30-50 pip profits to over come their 4-8 pip spreads and be consistently profitable. Anyways that is why scalping EAs are almost impossible to write. That Take profit S1/R1 line needs to be considered whether it gives you enough room to take a trade.
Bob
Thanks the comments are very helpful.
The bottom line it seems is that this is NOT a "go to bed strategy" meaning you place the trades at the change of day and go to bed.
Sometimes that works, but often it doesn't. More care and management, as you describe, is required.
I like All Pairs also. If you could make it go across the screen with more columns I would like that feature. I will test it more this week and see how it goes. If I am doing recovery on some pair I know not to bother with a recovery set up if it shows the opposite.
