Bob, Don, Spyderman, Baluda et al,
No sooner had I thought of below after reading Mick (MADPIPA) I saw spyderman haying the same thoughts!
I totally agree with spyderman. What we need is a comparison of current volatility levels (e.g., from reading Mick's link) with what we already know about historical volatility (what Bob's analysis tells us from Mick's link.)
As Bob has noted volatility has changed considerably (has been going down since 2009.) Well, it can also go up very quickly, since according to the CBOE VIX (daily volatility for the stock and futures markets) daily volatility was at a historic low of about 12 in August 2012 but since has gone up (just as experience would predict) from that level to about 19-21 currently. And then there is intraday volatility ...
Most market watchers think it is bound to increase as major events (fiscal cliff, Euro debates etc) come to the surface post-US elections. So we ought to think of volatility comparisons in conjunctions with judging trending vs ranging markets. The fact is that both trending and ranging markets can have low or high volatility.
One suggestion: break down daily volatility tables into deciles- from #1 (lowest) to #10 (or have, say, 4-5 classes to match Bob's pairs volatility groups.) Then, from Mick's link (or similar resource), determine the current match for D1, W1 TFs. Add this analysis to 10.2A and 10.3 in say MultiBob, using Don's good works, and now we have a pretty complete (both simple and rational) trading system that can guide us.
For example:
1. Determine from D1 and H4 TF whether the market is ranging or trending from TMA Slope indy.
2. Check Mick's link to find the closest decile or class match for volatility for that pair. CBOE VIX should not be used here since it is for stock/futures not forex, and unluckily no overall forex market volatility gauge, based on, say, weighted means of currency pairs volatility, is available- a great topic for future development.
3. If trending, use 10.2/A methods with adjustment for volatility.
4. If ranging, also check lower TFs for 10.3 analysis. Apply 10.3, perhaps CTS ...
5. It is important to remember that both trending and ranging markets can be volatile. We thus need to expand our analysis/methodology for both 10.2A and 10.3 to take account of volatility, which IMHO is what has been missing from the big picture !
I have been ranting about a volatility based approach in several threads, so am glad to see this being recognized here
From options markets trading, volatility (based on standard deviation of price changes in Black Scholes) is probably the most recognized 'leading' (tradable) indicator to date. It just so happens that there is no equivalent developed in forex owing to forex's OTC nature (i.e., non-standard options contracts.) But a simple forex market indy can be quickly developed as above in #2, using currency strength difference techniques.
Regards,
Athar.
spyderman wrote:nanningbob wrote:
Look at these stats.
99 week data-- 4 pairs over 140 and 13 over 100 pips a day average
12 week data-- 1 pair over 140 (gbp/nzd) and only 1 over 100 (eur/nzd)
The market is now less volatile than it was 2 years ago and less volatile than it was a year ago.
Now we know how to basically trade and set our TP. Excel sheet data attached
Bob,
Thanks once again for some fantastic insight and information. Wouldn't it be great to have an indi that read the history on all pairs in the market watch and showed a volatility graph for a given time period.
I'm sure the change happens slowly but would be nice to keep pace as the markets evolve. Would have been interesting in real time to see the markets move from effective 10.0 trading to what we now seems to be a 10.3 climate...
Baluda...are you listening?
