POOLER/SAN Stunning generosity

[That Trader]

Looking forward to it

[Anpar]

First time poster, but have lurked a bit. I've traded this on a small $1k account this week and I'm up $72 trading only EURUSD and EURJPY at .02 a lot (no martingale, meaning no increasing lot size). Going to continue to let it run and see what happens.

Are you using stop losses then?

No, but I'm using a profit size of 250% per level, taking the approach of "let your profits run".

[Forexman1972]

This not a rant--just want to provide some clarity.

The definition of Martingale as per Investopedia. (I underlined the relevant sections)


This not a Martingale strategy as there are no losses. Each trade will always be profitable-no matter how many levels are opened. The reason the lot size is increased with each level is so that your Take Profit target follows ("shadows") the price as closely as possible so you don't need a large retracement to hit your take profit. If you keep the lot size the same for each level than the TP will get further and further away from the price with each level. The secret to this strategy is the logic/arithmetic used to ensure that TP is the same for all trades and is placed so the sum of all the trades will be equal to your profit target. The only weakness is drawdown if you do not apply sensible money management according to your account size. If I had $ 15 000 I'd let this EA run on 15 pairs with the settings as per post 1 and I'll double this account in a year. Then I'll raise the starting lot to .02 and the account will grow exponentially quicker. I've done this on demo but that means zip. I'm also not a great fan of back testing as there many factors you can't replicate in real time.

There are 4 settings you can adjust. Lot size, TP%, Levels (OR) and trading times. Each setting you adjust will have the advantage of hitting your TP earlier but also increases/decreases draw down. I've played around with 100's of different combinations on all the currency pairs and Gold/Silver. What you use depends on your appetite for risk. For eg. You can set lot size the first level at .03 then .01, .02 after that. You can make the first 3 levels only 15 pips each and the TP% 30. You will have a lot of trades hitting TP very quickly but the danger is the one trade that takes off to level 6-7 and then goes sideways before taking off on another run. You cannot close a trade manually because you will almost have a loss (that's the problem).

All pending trades are closed when your trading session closes. Open trades will continue until TP is filled and any pending trades still open will be closed when TP is hit. BUT If a trade reaches TP after the open of a new session then the pending trades will remain until the close of that session. For e.g.--My session is set 23h00-06h00 which opens 1 hr. before Asian and closes 1 hr. before London. If a trade is still open after 06h00 and only profits at 23h30 that evening then the pending (and there is always a pending trade in case price goes to the next level) will stay open until 06h00 the following day. Close it manually and wait for the start of the next session. It's not a huge problem because if that pending is filled it will just start at whatever the lot size is for that level and the EA will work everything out from there. But you don't want a pending trade of .08 (level 8) hanging around as the problem is once again draw down. Currently, the EA is only set at ten levels--I'm going to change it with the next EA because with strategy 2-- the more levels the better and draw down isn't a such big issue any more.

If you don't understand this strategy which the current EA applies then the second strategy I've designed will make even less sense.

Please invest some time with this. I spent more than 18 months getting to this point--but you shouldn't as I started from scratch (and I'm a bit slow)

Regards

Pooler

Surely this is a form of martingale. And please explain how there are no losses? It is possible to have 15 losses in a row. What happens then?

[Pooler]

Baie dankie, ek verstaan nou

Mooi man Province

[Pooler]

This not a rant--just want to provide some clarity.

The definition of Martingale as per Investopedia. (I underlined the relevant sections)


This not a Martingale strategy as there are no losses. Each trade will always be profitable-no matter how many levels are opened. The reason the lot size is increased with each level is so that your Take Profit target follows ("shadows") the price as closely as possible so you don't need a large retracement to hit your take profit. If you keep the lot size the same for each level than the TP will get further and further away from the price with each level. The secret to this strategy is the logic/arithmetic used to ensure that TP is the same for all trades and is placed so the sum of all the trades will be equal to your profit target. The only weakness is drawdown if you do not apply sensible money management according to your account size. If I had $ 15 000 I'd let this EA run on 15 pairs with the settings as per post 1 and I'll double this account in a year. Then I'll raise the starting lot to .02 and the account will grow exponentially quicker. I've done this on demo but that means zip. I'm also not a great fan of back testing as there many factors you can't replicate in real time.

There are 4 settings you can adjust. Lot size, TP%, Levels (OR) and trading times. Each setting you adjust will have the advantage of hitting your TP earlier but also increases/decreases draw down. I've played around with 100's of different combinations on all the currency pairs and Gold/Silver. What you use depends on your appetite for risk. For eg. You can set lot size the first level at .03 then .01, .02 after that. You can make the first 3 levels only 15 pips each and the TP% 30. You will have a lot of trades hitting TP very quickly but the danger is the one trade that takes off to level 6-7 and then goes sideways before taking off on another run. You cannot close a trade manually because you will almost have a loss (that's the problem).

All pending trades are closed when your trading session closes. Open trades will continue until TP is filled and any pending trades still open will be closed when TP is hit. BUT If a trade reaches TP after the open of a new session then the pending trades will remain until the close of that session. For e.g.--My session is set 23h00-06h00 which opens 1 hr. before Asian and closes 1 hr. before London. If a trade is still open after 06h00 and only profits at 23h30 that evening then the pending (and there is always a pending trade in case price goes to the next level) will stay open until 06h00 the following day. Close it manually and wait for the start of the next session. It's not a huge problem because if that pending is filled it will just start at whatever the lot size is for that level and the EA will work everything out from there. But you don't want a pending trade of .08 (level 8) hanging around as the problem is once again draw down. Currently, the EA is only set at ten levels--I'm going to change it with the next EA because with strategy 2-- the more levels the better and draw down isn't a such big issue any more.

If you don't understand this strategy which the current EA applies then the second strategy I've designed will make even less sense.

Please invest some time with this. I spent more than 18 months getting to this point--but you shouldn't as I started from scratch (and I'm a bit slow)

Regards

Pooler

Surely this is a form of martingale. And please explain how there are no losses? It is possible to have 15 losses in a row. What happens then?

Cmon Mate,

I realise it sounds too good to be true but have you read what I posted at all?

I'll be posting an example of strategy 1 soon. I hope it explains it better as I'm not clearly not using plain English.

[Pooler]

First time poster, but have lurked a bit. I've traded this on a small $1k account this week and I'm up $72 trading only EURUSD and EURJPY at .02 a lot (no martingale, meaning no increasing lot size). Going to continue to let it run and see what happens.

Are you using stop losses then?

No, but I'm using a profit size of 250% per level, taking the approach of "let your profits run".

Anpar,

250%? Is that a total of all 10 levels?

[Pooler]

I set the EA to trade near opening of NY session (11h45) on Wed, 7 Nov (black line on chart) on EurJpy so I could get some trades to test the second strategy (normally its set at 23h00--06h00).

The 3 charts illustrate Strategy 1 only. I'll show Strategy 2 later (I'm tired of drawing lines and the rugby's starting just now)

Price went to level 7 before retracing enough to TP next day 20h27. (Look at account history below the chart--it's all there)

Settings Lot size starting at .01, increasing .01 with each level. TP 60% all levels, OR 30 pips between each level (this is not a standard setting as I usually increase OR as levels increase). Once again the change was only to try and get trades to test Strat 2.

I labelled the charts to show each level--incl. Level 8 Buy Limit (horizontal blue lines),
also where each TP was set as price dropped and filled new (lower) levels (horiz. red dotted lines)
The vertical green dotted lines from left to right show the time each trade opened.
Chart 3 is a wide view from opening to close (between the vert red lines)

Price dropped 210 pips before retracing 60 to fill TP. So price moved pretty far for a gain of 18 pips. The Asian session rarely has this type of volatility and volume but it serves to show draw down and if you had 7 plus of these trades open it can get hairy.

The solution is obviously to trend trade this move with sell stops which is easy to say in hindsight because I had no idea what was going to happen when the trade was placed.

But what if you could do both Buys and Sells at the same time to benefit from both the trend and the inevitable retracement--I'll show how when I post the same trades above but with Strategy 2.

Later--brains tired now and I'm going to crack a cold one at the braai.

[Anpar]

Are you using stop losses then?[/quote]


No, but I'm using a profit size of 250% per level, taking the approach of "let your profits run".[/quote]

Anpar,

250%? Is that a total of all 10 levels?[/quote]

Yes sir, another thing is I trade it on 4hr charts, trades more often.

[Forexman1972]

This not a rant--just want to provide some clarity.

The definition of Martingale as per Investopedia. (I underlined the relevant sections)


This not a Martingale strategy as there are no losses. Each trade will always be profitable-no matter how many levels are opened. The reason the lot size is increased with each level is so that your Take Profit target follows ("shadows") the price as closely as possible so you don't need a large retracement to hit your take profit. If you keep the lot size the same for each level than the TP will get further and further away from the price with each level. The secret to this strategy is the logic/arithmetic used to ensure that TP is the same for all trades and is placed so the sum of all the trades will be equal to your profit target. The only weakness is drawdown if you do not apply sensible money management according to your account size. If I had $ 15 000 I'd let this EA run on 15 pairs with the settings as per post 1 and I'll double this account in a year. Then I'll raise the starting lot to .02 and the account will grow exponentially quicker. I've done this on demo but that means zip. I'm also not a great fan of back testing as there many factors you can't replicate in real time.

There are 4 settings you can adjust. Lot size, TP%, Levels (OR) and trading times. Each setting you adjust will have the advantage of hitting your TP earlier but also increases/decreases draw down. I've played around with 100's of different combinations on all the currency pairs and Gold/Silver. What you use depends on your appetite for risk. For eg. You can set lot size the first level at .03 then .01, .02 after that. You can make the first 3 levels only 15 pips each and the TP% 30. You will have a lot of trades hitting TP very quickly but the danger is the one trade that takes off to level 6-7 and then goes sideways before taking off on another run. You cannot close a trade manually because you will almost have a loss (that's the problem).

All pending trades are closed when your trading session closes. Open trades will continue until TP is filled and any pending trades still open will be closed when TP is hit. BUT If a trade reaches TP after the open of a new session then the pending trades will remain until the close of that session. For e.g.--My session is set 23h00-06h00 which opens 1 hr. before Asian and closes 1 hr. before London. If a trade is still open after 06h00 and only profits at 23h30 that evening then the pending (and there is always a pending trade in case price goes to the next level) will stay open until 06h00 the following day. Close it manually and wait for the start of the next session. It's not a huge problem because if that pending is filled it will just start at whatever the lot size is for that level and the EA will work everything out from there. But you don't want a pending trade of .08 (level 8) hanging around as the problem is once again draw down. Currently, the EA is only set at ten levels--I'm going to change it with the next EA because with strategy 2-- the more levels the better and draw down isn't a such big issue any more.

If you don't understand this strategy which the current EA applies then the second strategy I've designed will make even less sense.

Please invest some time with this. I spent more than 18 months getting to this point--but you shouldn't as I started from scratch (and I'm a bit slow)

Regards

Pooler

Surely this is a form of martingale. And please explain how there are no losses? It is possible to have 15 losses in a row. What happens then?

Cmon Mate,

I realise it sounds too good to be true but have you read what I posted at all?

I'll be posting an example of strategy 1 soon. I hope it explains it better as I'm not clearly not using plain English.

Yes I have read your posts. In your example below what would happen if you got to level 10 and still didn't get the required retracement? There are no more levels, there are no stops, do you just ride it out?

Thanks

[Forexman1972]

In your example above you only just hit level 7 TP.

One way you could lower you risk is to aim for breakeven instead of shooting for a profit, this would have lowered your TP price. This would lower your risk a bit. This element could be added if perhaps you get past a certain level eg level 5 in which case you are happy to get out of the trade at breakeven. You could even get out at a predefined loss after a certain level eg level 7 or 8 to further lower your risk.

Just some thoughts.