10.3 SCALPER/RANGE TRADE SYSTEM

[morgb]

Results for myself today (Alpari UK Demo)

2.49% loss or 83pips - Using 25pSL 100p TP on MPTMUsing 10.3 DO/DP Method. Placing Trades 7.30AM GMT for the london session - 1% Risk per trade (roughly).

Jump EA Settings

JumpPips 7
NegativeInc 7
PositiveInc 8

[Jedster]

ok, so I've written a tool that calculates the probabilities that certain pivot levels will get hit. I did this because someone said they set their SL below the PP and someone else said they just set a SL of 18 pips. I was curious about the actual probabilities of moving from one s/r level to another, and I wanted to see, if I set my stops either side of the PP, what the probability was that it would get hit.

Attached is a spreadsheet showing an example output and here is a marked up jpg. The stats are not necessarily straightforward to read, hence the little markup.

pp results.jpg

In the screenshot, it shows that out of 3226 days (roughly 10 years), when DO was above the Pivot Point, R1 was hit 56% of the time, but the PP was actually hit 81% of the time. Further, after hitting the PP, price then went on to hit R1 only 43% of the time.

The results are grouped by whether the DO was above or below the PP.

Is this useful to anyone? If so, I'll post the indicator I wrote to generate it. If it was only me that found it interesting, then that's fine, I've been meaning to do it for a while anyway...

[McNish]

@ Jedster : Fantastic study man ! So we now only have to worry about the rest 40 % of the time the R1 does not get hit and that SL's placed at PP will be hit very often. Great tool to test strategies I believe.

[Bader]

@ Jedster - Would it not be of interest to see this by time band. In other words setting the DO and DP at different times may yield different % and levels hit. So test for set GMT +1 get results and compare to set at GMT + 2 for example. Trading with DP and DP set at NY close could give very different results to DO and DP set at GMT.

Much is being said about when to set the DO and DP lines. Could this not help to narrow this down and move us from a gut feel to a more scientific outcome. I know I am battling to get my head around it.

Of course this could just be exercise in futility!

[pete14]

ok, so I've written a tool that calculates the probabilities that certain pivot levels will get hit. I did this because someone said they set their SL below the PP and someone else said they just set a SL of 18 pips. I was curious about the actual probabilities of moving from one s/r level to another, and I wanted to see, if I set my stops either side of the PP, what the probability was that it would get hit.

Attached is a spreadsheet showing an example output and here is a marked up jpg. The stats are not necessarily straightforward to read, hence the little markup.

pp results.jpg

In the screenshot, it shows that out of 3226 days (roughly 10 years), when DO was above the Pivot Point, R1 was hit 56% of the time, but the PP was actually hit 81% of the time. Further, after hitting the PP, price then went on to hit R1 only 43% of the time.

The results are grouped by whether the DO was above or below the PP.

Is this useful to anyone? If so, I'll post the indicator I wrote to generate it. If it was only me that found it interesting, then that's fine, I've been meaning to do it for a while anyway...

Jedster,
can you post the indicator?
I'm very interested.
Thanks
Peter

[mobthehop]

Jedster - amazing stuff - thanks for sharing!

[pacinvest]

Thanks To All contributing here. Full time job integrating all this good stuff into my trading. Just want to say thanks. Jedstar nice job on the study....................

And here's a little question. I have been using the 'Instant Trailing Stop' in Steve's epic MPTM EA along with Break even and Jumping Stop for my 10.3 scalps. I think I like the instant trailing stop. If the entries are reasonable the Sl is essentially moving up with PA and if it then does a swing to the losses are reduced. The other scenario is your entry results in a bit of ranging or whipping PA and you may get stopped out when actually you wouldn't if you had a static SL. Another good point is that all my trade management sits in one instance of MPTM and there is no need for the Jump EA.

So the question is what do you guys think of this idea?
For trades that I am going to walk away from (for awhile) here are the MPTM settings I am using.

Instant SL = 18
Remove Instant SL at BE = true
BreakEven = 7
BreakEven pips = 2
Jumping stop = 7
Jump at BE = true

This in my view is a fairly 'tight' set-up and thus requires timing and logic of entry to be pretty good

[nanningbob]

Thank you Jedstar great study. I am having semester close at my school so will not be posting much until grades are done and report cards are out. Some really big moves during the JPY sessions which are screwing up my whole day. With Baludas indi you can reset your pivots at just before the Euro open so you can have something to trade. I am getting to my charts and finding prices at S/R 1 or 2 and going dang. Are these things going to keep running or will they retrace. heck if I know.

[Jedster]

It looks like there is some interest, so later today I'll post the details in a separate thread (so that it doesn't clutter up this one).

[KevinT]

It looks like there is some interest, so later today I'll post the details in a separate thread (so that it doesn't clutter up this one).

Of course there is interest :!:

Not some... lots of

We´re just too overwhelmed digesting all the developments here (Forum)

Besides, we lurkers don't want to clutter the thread too much...