The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[mjws00]

Ewinner,

I don't see trapped bulls except on the current bar, and from early last week. So I don't know how to judge mm intent. My gut says it is overcooked, and coming into SR we could sell. But the fox may throw a wrench or two in this one before turning. I am also concerned about getting short JPY pairs when they can slam it coming into an NFP event. That may not be relevant to this style, but I know they will use the tool. The wrong side of intervention blows.

I'm interested in hearing the masters thoughts, if he gets a chance.

I am just a foxy rookie, whose mind has been expanded. My brain is literally shattered all over the floor as I figure out how to integrate this into thousand and thousands of hours watching price from a simple level. Heaven help us if we have to go to level two. Or what does the market maker think I think he thinks. But this ain't tricky trappy poker, just a bunch of fear, greed and speculators getting pounded.

Mike

[Captain Jack]

Hi Mike, how about this one?

Mark

ej.gif

Looks like a 3 push high....sell it here as it's pinning

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Another look....

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Does this the kind of thing you are looking for CJ? D1 early potential railroad at an area of interest with H4 confirming?

Cheers,
Dave.

Yeah...that's what I would be looking for. Pay attention to how the pins form on top and bottom. Some pairs have their own quirks, which pin tends to be the long, which is the short, are they even....things like that. I think you will see differences across the pairs. Some pairs with high spread have crappy pins. You can always look at the chart on different time frames, longer compresses the data, shorter expands it. Sometimes what you don't see on 1 time frame, will show on a different one.

Note the time of day....

John

[Captain Jack]

I got my junior foxy glasses on, CJ. I am running charts like a mofo trying to get in their heads. What do you see at the labels. I have a feeling I am seeing what they want me to, but getting closer. Hard right is the obvious magic. Am I looking in the right spots?

I still get lost taking pinbars in realtime, without some kind of SR, trendline or something to guide me. It is really easy to take these early and get faked out. If I go just with my feel for price I do better. I do have serious time logged watching these build out from the 5s chart, and relating those microstructures to the higher timeframes. But just reading the pattern, gets me crushed unless I limit my hunting to certain areas.

Is it best to just pop down a few timeframes to finetune? Sounds like you see these without that.

Wonderful insight so far. Thanks. (Brooks is kicking my butt, holy anal retentive hell.)

Mike

You running a trade sim or something....lol

Here's a current pic.... actually 2 of them. 4H and the same info compressed to the weekly chart....

CJ

Hi CJ
The sim is the way to get into this concept! seem to be a bit more at ease in seeing what is happening but one question beckons.
When will the blood letting be over? The patter from start to finish you mentioned, does it give a clue to it being over?

Is it when volume starts to wain? (no more buyers or sellers left alive)
or is there another method to suggest a longer push may be install...can longer accumulation give us any clue?

Daryl

It happens at different times on each time frame. Look at the lower time frames and 2-D1 candles hold 96-15M candles....look at the action on the H1, H4...the patterns are the same across all time frames and the lower one may give you a clue as to where you are in the pattern.

CJ

[spotdespot]

Yeah...that's what I would be looking for. Pay attention to how the pins form on top and bottom. Some pairs have their own quirks, which pin tends to be the long, which is the short, are they even....things like that. I think you will see differences across the pairs. Some pairs with high spread have crappy pins. You can always look at the chart on different time frames, longer compresses the data, shorter expands it. Sometimes what you don't see on 1 time frame, will show on a different one.

Note the time of day....

John

Thanks for the feedback - appreciate it. Also interesting about the time of day - not something I considered before (beyond are we near London or NY open).

Made some pips on this as I couldn't resist but got out too early - confidence will build. AUDCHF similar but no surprise there.

Cheers,
Dave.

[Captain Jack]

When to close your 'anchor-trade'?
Reversed RR-track?

Where do you add trades?
Specific distance between?
[Mid]Pivots like 10.4?

I have no hard rules Gertje....it depends on each trade, how much profit is involved, what type of retrace is coming up, location in a pattern....lots of different variables. Sometimes I go the distance with them like this EURNZD trade.....

Adding trades are the same. Sometimes I will close a trade in profit and enter a new one at the current price if I'm building equity or short on margin. I will post some old charts of live trades I have taken as I used to post a lot of them as I made them.

You could adapt this to the 10.4 system and the pins would work well there, giving you early entry instead waiting a level or so. With a larger entry order at the same risk, using a smaller SL, your 1st level trade R:R ratios will sky rocket. Many trades only go one level or so and this can make a big difference in profit attained.

John

[Captain Jack]

Hi Mike, how about this one?

Mark

ej.gif

Looks like a 3 push high....sell it here as it's pinning

CJ

Took the SL off here for now as price will pin higher during the stop hunt at the top of the 2nd D1 candle. Will close out this trade when in profit and wait for higher high

CJ

[ewinner]

Hi CJ

I quite agree, it was a big enough move today, needs a bit of wiggle room The USDJPY looks pretty toppy too..

i really like this approach, thanks for sharing

Mark

[Captain Jack]

Yeah...that's what I would be looking for. Pay attention to how the pins form on top and bottom. Some pairs have their own quirks, which pin tends to be the long, which is the short, are they even....things like that. I think you will see differences across the pairs. Some pairs with high spread have crappy pins. You can always look at the chart on different time frames, longer compresses the data, shorter expands it. Sometimes what you don't see on 1 time frame, will show on a different one.

Note the time of day....

John

Thanks for the feedback - appreciate it. Also interesting about the time of day - not something I considered before (beyond are we near London or NY open).

Made some pips on this as I couldn't resist but got out too early - confidence will build. AUDCHF similar but no surprise there.

Cheers,
Dave.

Yes, it's not just the sessions. Bob mentions how trades are slow on Monday and Tuesday, Wednesdays are for mid week reversals and action picks up on Thursday and Friday. Best time for the moves are end of day, week month, or season, 1st half NY and 1hr before Frankfort, into the London session about 1/2 way or so.

Asian session is when they set the range, new HOD and new LOD.... and then the games begin later....

John