The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[mjws00]

Here is my take on it Eltax. 4Hr a little rangey with few useful points for me so dropped to 1H. When they trap both sides... I'm waiting for them to show their hand. This is no man's land, maybe a coin flip.

I'd just watch this one until I saw them making a move vs trying to predict. It will come.

Mike

[erikskenne]

mjws00 this is far beyond my knowledge but happy to be here and trying to learn, I must have missed something I don't know what RRT stands for can you explain, thanks in advance

[mjws00]

RRT is a railroad track. A reversal pattern.

I'm no expert. Just a guy dumb enough to put a thought or two up and have them corrected if they are wacked out.

Captain Jack will pop in with true insight along the way. If I can lighten his load at all I will. Helps my understanding to try and explain clearly.

Mike

[pips400]

Here is my take on it Eltax. 4Hr a little rangey with few useful points for me so dropped to 1H. When they trap both sides... I'm waiting for them to show their hand. This is no man's land, maybe a coin flip.

I'd just watch this one until I saw them making a move vs trying to predict. It will come.

Mike

Hi Mike

Fascinating discussion, and like others, my brain is getting frazzled here, but I want to hang in there, and get to understand the nuggets of experience and insight from master trader CJ.

A key question here is "What do you see?" I guess that's pretty much one of the most important criteria for any trader to have the ability to read charts/price and see what's happening. I'm still locked in to the trader side of the glass at the moment. The following picture shows what I mean. It's the image you kindly analysed, but my brain is wired to see trendlines and trade either the break or the pullback/rallies. I've marked up your image with what I see as a standard retail trader, and I can see plenty of opportunities to profit just trading the trend.

I really want to reach a higher perspective, but on the other hand I don't want to throw the baby out with the bath water.

BTW I really enjoy your posts, thanks for being so transparent, we're learning from your journey.

Mike

audusd-perspective.jpg

[mjws00]

Pips400, we could probably find a MA crossover that almost matches those trendline entry points. We know that will get killed in chop or rangey markets. Trendlines have survived decades so I wouldn't throw them out. They don't lag, and they help the eye make some distinctions. The challenge is drawing them in a meaningful way as they are so subjective.

So the fox is looking to attract us there, get us selling/buying and then take our stop. He knows where we'll be, he knows which way we'll be biased, he can play perfectly against us there. That is the danger I am beginning to understand. He has every tool to see where you will enter on that red line and run it against you at that point to force an error.

CJ has pure raw skill and talent to see which turns are meaningful and will hold, as well as where the market maker will head based on what it must do to make a profit. Because he knows what the fox must do to make the kill.

With the straight up trendlines like that, How do we stay short or long? In real time, why can't they spike up through them and stop us out? We also give up 2/3 of the move to the guy that can get in on that pinbar, and knows which one is meaningful. Everyone is drawing lines and seems to be losing. At the very least not winning like the captain or able to push edges like he can.

LOL. I'm sure CJ has the perfect concise answer. The first tech chart I put up was similar, and frankly I've been batting 23/25 with 3:1 RR and over 2000 pips with my twist on 10.4. I'll throw the list up again at the end of the week) But I can't push edges as hard. I have to plan for them (MM) to work against me. I have to protect profits. My entries aren't as clean (but they are good).

Something that allows the compounding and confidence to trade like the Captain is pure inspiration to me. No gimmicks, no laggy BS, just logic and price. He is hard core, Mauro and others will throw an indicator or two up to help newbs get their bearings.

It is also a complete and utter brain melting experience which does me good every once and a while. Learning is the best part of the game. (money is ok too.)

Mike

[mjws00]

CJ I sure hope that was the stop hunt on EURJPY. I'm counting 3 legs, hoping for a RRT here. Don't fail me now you foxy bastards.

Mike.

[eltax100]

Hi Mike 3 legs?

[Geges]

Hello Captain Jack,

Thanks for this GREAT Thread.

A few hours ago I went short on the EG per your suggestion and awoke to see it had nicely
moved in the desired direction and is doing a retrace at the moment. So I'm thinking HOW ??
does CJ KNOW this stuff ?....WHAT does he see? Believe me I read and reread each post to
try to make something sink in...so I went to the chart to look for a H, HH, LH pattern you
taught in the BARF thread and BINGO the lightbulb went on (flickering lol)...when I suddenly
saw a somewhat repeating pattern on the attached chart...frankly it gave me a spinal shiver
and also a sense of empowerment as I might just be able to figure this out after all with a
little guidance. I know that you have emphasized the price action activity (patterns) repeat
over and over on all time frames down to the tick level...try as I may I couldn't see that...but
I may be starting to at least at the macro level. I don't understand the WHY/WHEN (intent)
correlation yet but I'm aware of it now...next week more aware. So in the attached chart are
the highlighted areas what you mean when your talking about HOW the price action patterns
repeat ?
Also thank you Mike for your great effort and participation. You and Captain Jack are opening
many eyes to what is really going on out there.

Geges

[mjws00]

Hi Mike 3 legs?

Looks like this. Though a bit muddled here. 3 legs happens a lot. Often they are pretty. But there is a chance the fox is starting to hit the brakes throw up a Pin or an M and start hunting bulls.

Not elliot based, just straight up manipulation by market makers.

Mike

[spotdespot]

I'm a bit like pips400 - still looking through a dirty screen. I keep thinking I am grasping bits of it but I am struggling to separate what I am seeing from other explanations for the actions. For example I have been looking at WMD's stuff on FF - Trading With Deadly Accuracy I think it's called. It's naked trading so hopefully not too far off target for the thread. I keep seeing his "hook" structure retests of "breakout" areas everywhere - and the reasoning for the retests is different from CJ's for example but the result is the same.

Also re. trendlines - I think they can be very useful. Again the above thread opened my eyes a little as once you move away from the rigid preconceptions of how trendlines should be drawn you can start making some interesting discoveries. For example - the trendlines drawn below I would not have drawn previously but I have quite a bit of faith in them in that there will be some reaction. These particular trendlines were drawn on the weekly chart from around October 2011 - yet look at the reaction to them now on an H4 chart. In my mind I would be looking for confluence of trendlines/S/R/Sup/Dem for potential reversal points but I would like to tie them in with CJ's ideas if I could get my head around them then maybe, in time, move on to the other side of the glass and get rid of all the "noise"

EDIT: Just seen posts since I started writing this. Mike - what is an "M"? I know an M as simply price following that shape but you referred to a double M with a higher high that I couldn't see for the life of me and I certainly struggle to see how we predict one on the EJ M15 chart?

Cheers,
Dave.