spotdespot wrote:I'm a bit like pips400 - still looking through a dirty screen. I keep thinking I am grasping bits of it but I am struggling to separate what I am seeing from other explanations for the actions. For example I have been looking at WMD's stuff on FF - Trading With Deadly Accuracy I think it's called. It's naked trading so hopefully not too far off target for the thread. I keep seeing his "hook" structure retests of "breakout" areas everywhere - and the reasoning for the retests is different from CJ's for example but the result is the same.
Also re. trendlines - I think they can be very useful. Again the above thread opened my eyes a little as once you move away from the rigid preconceptions of how trendlines should be drawn you can start making some interesting discoveries. For example - the trendlines drawn below I would not have drawn previously but I have quite a bit of faith in them in that there will be some reaction. These particular trendlines were drawn on the weekly chart from around October 2011 - yet look at the reaction to them now on an H4 chart. In my mind I would be looking for confluence of trendlines/S/R/Sup/Dem for potential reversal points but I would like to tie them in with CJ's ideas if I could get my head around them
then maybe, in time, move on to the other side of the glass and get rid of all the "noise"
EDIT: Just seen posts since I started writing this. Mike - what is an "M"? I know an M as simply price following that shape but you referred to a double M with a higher high that I couldn't see for the life of me and I certainly struggle to see how we predict one on the EJ M15 chart?
Cheers,
Dave.
I'm not familiar with WMD's work, you are welcome to discuss his ideas here if he gives different reasoning than I do. I'd actually like to hear it.
The concepts I bring forth require you to toss a lot of what you know about forex out the window, or more so, what you have been told about forex. To grasp what I am saying, you need an open mind. You need to be able to accept something that goes against the masses, perhaps against logical reasoning.
I read that you put a lot of faith in trend lines. They seem to work well. You are supposed to rely on trend lines, S&D areas and a lot of other things. You KNOW price is drawn to these areas. Where we differ is that I know that price is not drawn to them, but that a market maker drives price to certain points, to create trend lines where large numbers of traders will gather. Where price interacts with a trend line could be considered a point where the market makers make a lot of money
Market makers. One for each session, per time zone, per bank. There are "dealers" at various levels below them but the central banks guide price. Let the speculators get out of hand and you will see a crushing intervention. They interact with each other. They know where every line is because they are the one who create the points that comprise the lines. They are the artist that paints everything you see on your price screen. But most important of all, they are the candle makers.
A trend line to me is one of the lesser evils. They are visual aids and I will throw one on a chart now and then for reference when plotting price. No matter how easy it looks using trend lines, many traders get butchered at the points that create them. That's why price returns.
Those trend lines are also indicating a "range" area. This range area is the same you see in the Asian session each day. Price has been consolidating in this range for months. What you have just seen, this past week, is the widening of this range, on the 4H charts. You are seeing the resetting of the 4H high and 4H lows the same as you would the resetting of the intra day high and lows. This process will takes weeks, maybe a month or two. There will be a break above or below this new range and a massive stop hunt will take place, out of which a new trend will emerge. This is where I expect the lows to be near 112-113.00 areas. Crazy stuff huh?
If you thinks it's crazy, compare the price forecast chart for EURGBP that I posted last week. Look at the shape of the pattern I posted, compare it to the shape of the move that just occurred. Look at the low point on the last "W" that printed on Friday and compare it to the forecast chart. Crazy stuff, but we all know price can't be predicted don't we.
Lines and indicators tell us where price has been, but if you listen, price will tell you where it's going.
CJ
now let me get back to the Important biz of Learning from you.
