The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Reaper]

Great thanks, so the first "W" failed, however would we have traded it and perhaps stopped out? or is there something to say the ignore this one.

Perhaps the second leg needed to be the same height as the first? (w/o the pin)

[mjws00]

Yeah, I took it on EURJPY. Beautiful little M formation on 15M. Pretty enough I wonder it they'll have to mess it up a bit. Wondering if London stop hunts it north though before we get a real drop. Guess we'll find out.

You think they got a few more spikes in them, CJ? Or are we close to shifting away? 20 pip shift and it can range all evening for all I care. I'll swing it though if given the opportunity.

[Reaper]

Yeah, I took it on EURJPY. Beautiful little M formation on 15M. Pretty enough I wonder it they'll have to mess it up a bit. Wondering if London stop hunts it north though before we get a real drop. Guess we'll find out.

You think they got a few more spikes in them, CJ? Or are we close to shifting away? 20 pip shift and it can range all evening for all I care. I'll swing it though if given the opportunity.

Please post a screen of your one, I cant seem to see it.

[Captain Jack]

What I saw to make me want to put a trade on here....

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Great thanks, so the first "W" failed, however would we have traded it and perhaps stopped out? or is there something to say the ignore this one.

Perhaps the second leg needed to be the same height as the first? (w/o the pin)

I'm not sure why you are saying the "W" failed....I took several trades based on the "W"....

3-11-2013 8-41-36 PM.png

CJ

[Reaper]

I think I'm in love with CJ

So if we see huge spikes in either direction that a tell tell sign thats something fishy is about to happen.

TP on this move? 30 pips? or would you stay in and ride the stop hunt in the london session? Or was that the spot hunt just now and there's another one later too?

[elvis]

CJ, how do you know what the "true direction" will be?

[spotdespot]

I'm not familiar with WMD's work, you are welcome to discuss his ideas here if he gives different reasoning than I do. I'd actually like to hear it.

The concepts I bring forth require you to toss a lot of what you know about forex out the window, or more so, what you have been told about forex. To grasp what I am saying, you need an open mind. You need to be able to accept something that goes against the masses, perhaps against logical reasoning.

I read that you put a lot of faith in trend lines. They seem to work well. You are supposed to rely on trend lines, S&D areas and a lot of other things. You KNOW price is drawn to these areas. Where we differ is that I know that price is not drawn to them, but that a market maker drives price to certain points, to create trend lines where large numbers of traders will gather. Where price interacts with a trend line could be considered a point where the market makers make a lot of money

Market makers. One for each session, per time zone, per bank. There are "dealers" at various levels below them but the central banks guide price. Let the speculators get out of hand and you will see a crushing intervention. They interact with each other. They know where every line is because they are the one who create the points that comprise the lines. They are the artist that paints everything you see on your price screen. But most important of all, they are the candle makers.

A trend line to me is one of the lesser evils. They are visual aids and I will throw one on a chart now and then for reference when plotting price. No matter how easy it looks using trend lines, many traders get butchered at the points that create them. That's why price returns.

Those trend lines are also indicating a "range" area. This range area is the same you see in the Asian session each day. Price has been consolidating in this range for months. What you have just seen, this past week, is the widening of this range, on the 4H charts. You are seeing the resetting of the 4H high and 4H lows the same as you would the resetting of the intra day high and lows. This process will takes weeks, maybe a month or two. There will be a break above or below this new range and a massive stop hunt will take place, out of which a new trend will emerge. This is where I expect the lows to be near 112-113.00 areas. Crazy stuff huh?

If you thinks it's crazy, compare the price forecast chart for EURGBP that I posted last week. Look at the shape of the pattern I posted, compare it to the shape of the move that just occurred. Look at the low point on the last "W" that printed on Friday and compare it to the forecast chart. Crazy stuff, but we all know price can't be predicted don't we.

Lines and indicators tell us where price has been, but if you listen, price will tell you where it's going.

CJ

Thanks for the extensive reply and my apologies for not coming back sooner (apologies to xrismak too) - I have been head down in other areas and this thread has grown very quickly when my back was turned!! Anyway - I will reply properly and hopefully add something useful when I get a chance (very late here now) and as of tomorrow I am travelling for a week so no doubt some serious catching up when I'm back. One quick point re trendlines/S/R/Supply/Demand - I may have given the wrong impression about how I use them. I view them as areas/zones where something is more likely to happen than other areas - they allow me to get a "heads up" as I am still looking through a dirty screen so until I get my head around all this they are a useful prop.

I know I can make money now - what this opens up is a whole new world. Looking forward to a lightbulb moment that I am sure is not that far away.

Have a great week.

Cheers,
Dave.

[f451]

Hi CJ, thanks for all your trading tips so far, they have really opened my eyes. If you could post a couple of trades setups as and when they happen, I'm sure that will assist me and others in what to look for. (I don't care about the quick buck, I just want to be consistently profitable).

Cheers

I just threw this one on here, it's just a tad late but what do you see? After reading the thread...tell me what you see. Why did I take the order?

CJ

extended period of accumulation (ranging consolidation), move up, spread (range) widens in both directions with a pin at the top to trap traders long, then rapid reversal to trap traders short, price accelerates back up to levels of the first top and pin, with a wide spread bar - bingo - enter short with a tight stop just above the previous top

Not bad and very close...did you see the "M"?

CJ

I did see the big M. I bet there was a little M on a lower timeframe too.

[Reaper]

I have just seen one of mauro's videos and its all so clear now. It's going to take a while to learn what to look for but it makes total sense.