10.4 A Complete System

[Gertje]

Seeing the PA, the news was good for the USD?

[cmeade2]

Right but it also impacted the yen. In a situation like this (where the potential trades are clear), I set up a basket on the Basket Equity indicator. Basically going long on the yen pairs had been marking time and going down. But just after 8:30 it took off north.

I can post an image if people are interested.

Seeing the PA, the news was good for the USD?

[huhpapa]

Bob, you place your second trade at the mid line or at the full level ?
At mid level (mid sup/res), if you move your SL to have a BE trade in case something went wrong, it isn't a bit too small for h4 no ?
Example on EU, pip difference between pivot & mr1 is about 35 pips only.

Thanks.

The distance from the WPivot to the WMR1 is over 50 pips. The distance from WMR1 to WR1 is over 50 pips. I see almost 100 pips in play. First trade try to get 80 plus and 2nd trade 30 plus for over 100 pips potential in a ranging market. After 50 pips you are in a no lose situation. MY sl is place over 160 pips away and is around the WR3 line well outside the EU reach. So dont see a problem at this point.

Hi Bob, I don't quite understand what you mean 1st try to get 80+ and 2nd trade 30+ ...
Do you mean profit take 1st leg at 80+ ... 2nd leg for a 30+?
Why don't let both run concurrently?
Thanks

My take is Bob enters some 10pips BELOW the 1st line and then the 2nd entry again some 10pips BELOW the 2nd line. TP is then some 10pips ABOVE the 3th line resulting in 80+30=110 pips.

He DOES let them run both, just enters and TP a little off of the [mid]pivots lines.

thanks Gertje

[mrelectron]

<snip>
I can post an image if people are interested.
</snip>

always interested.

<snip>
Basket Equity indicator
</snip>

Can you point me at the BEI please?

[cmeade2]

This is a plot of the Basket Equity indicator which is popular over on Bunker's Big Mac threads. Basically it plots the value of a hypothetical basket of long and short pairs that you specify (that's the red line). I have also added some MA's to look at the trend.

Anyway it was clear earlier that all of the yen pairs were setting up for longs in 10.4. So I set up a basket that was long on all of them.

You can see that it had been trending down, but then at 8:30 (EST) this morning it took off like a rocket after the data release. In my view, this is a good symbol of when to go long.

[nanningbob]

Here is an update analysis of the fundamentals on the JPY. Unless something sudden changes, which the article mentions, shorting the JPY is going to be one of the easiest trades for a while.

The market expects the likely appointment of Kurod, as the next BoJ governor will bring about further aggressive easing of monetary policy. The current Yen demise accurately illustrates the dividend returns of a well-orchestrated and clearly communicated central Bank strategy. All that remains now is that the BoJ will have to deliver on these expectations that investors have so far priced in. The April 3-4 meet needs to deliver some large scale asset purchases, buying of longer dated JGB’s and some credit easing, otherwise we will have a disappointed market who will want to unwind these positions.

The old adage of buy the rumor and sell the news will probably come into play now so when the news arrives it will be priced in.

[Chris]

That news is sure helping me out, thing are looking much better this morning.

[nanningbob]

Funny how the 240 line told me the news before I read the news. Interesting.

[Chris]

EurNzd Add to or take profit at mid level? Anyone in this one with me?

[sponn]

EurNzd Add to or take profit at mid level? Anyone in this one with me?

Two levels open for me... going for WS with them (or Sl at BE).