The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Reaper]

So my next question is what happens if there is an accumulation phase after accumulation phase in one direction but no stop run to indicate how we trade the profit release? I think what the MMs might be doing here is setting the NY reversal up so the reversal itself is quick and sharp...CJ - would this make sense or am I totally wrong?

In leg 1 of the weekly shift. So after they have thrown the brakes on the weekly cycle and chopped it up. Once they pull away from the new high or low. Often they skip the stop run back in that direction. They have so much money trapped at the new high or low, that it is in their best interest to just turn up the heat, not send it closer and risk losing some fresh meat. They turn the heat up slowly on their boiling frog so he doesn't jump out of the pot.

Watch the second leg, and backtest. Many many times there is continuation there. So... they throw what looks to be a FAKE.. all the Frankie/London open "clever" traders fade it like they have successfully the last 3 days, they get stuck holding the bag, and the market runs through them.

This is the leg that pays breakout traders. It is the straightaway. It screwed me over 100 times manually backtesting, but it isn't that hard to spot.

Mike

Ah I see, need to figure out the foxes are doing on the weekly overview not just focus on the daily. That's tonights lesson!

[Captain Jack]

Something to monitor, longer term......

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Here's an older chart that Garyfritz and I were discussing a few months back....price just broke lower at the point indicated on the chart....sell the rallies on the way down....after it hits bottom near the indicated point, buy it all the way back up.....

Like the AUDNZD chart, something to monitor going forward....

One more to come....

John

[Captain Jack]

Here's a chart I posted at Forex Factory about 8-9 months ago....the 2nd chart is an update, the "?" indicated the current pullback to come.......

Once again, something to watch over the many coming months....


CJ

[Pueo]

Am I on the right track here? looking for a W..

[Reaper]

Hey CJ, How come GBPCHF didnt turn south during the NY session after jumping up the 100+ points in the first half of the london session? Wouldnt it reverse from the high, fall a little bit like 40pips at least then back into the asian range?

[Captain Jack]

Am I on the right track here? looking for a W..

Not sure you are going to get that "W"...you just had a 3 push low...RRT reversal up, price will pull back into the range for Asian...look for stop hunt later. This is a Level 1 drop of a possible 3 day down cycle...you could have 2 more drops... I would watch for a drop in the London again tonight and see if it plays out....

The "W" would have come at the very low and if you look at that on the 5M tf, you will probably see a "W" where the RRT's are located. Don't get confused on the time frames...."W" and "M"'s presented on the higher time frames offer better trades out of those patterns. They will appear on the lower, but unless you are an experienced scalper, it's tough to make consistent profits due to the price range involved and the way they spread price on the bid/ask.

CJ

[Pueo]

Thanks! Why are you expecting a possible 3 day down cycle?

[Reaper]

Am I on the right track here? looking for a W..

Not sure you are going to get that "W"...you just had a 3 push low...RRT reversal up, price will pull back into the range for Asian...look for stop hunt later. This is a Level 1 drop of a possible 3 day down cycle...you could have 2 more drops... I would watch for a drop in the London again tonight and see if it plays out....

The "W" would have come at the very low and if you look at that on the 5M tf, you will probably see a "W" where the RRT's are located. Don't get confused on the time frames...."W" and "M"'s presented on the higher time frames offer better trades out of those patterns. They will appear on the lower, but unless you are an experienced scalper, it's tough to make consistent profits due to the price range involved and the way they spread price on the bid/ask.

CJ

Wasnt this 4 level drop? I see 4 moves down including the stop hunt drop.

[Pueo]

Are these valid W's?

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