The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Reaper]

Any nice setups forming this evening that you can share pls, CJ? And how long does it take for the average trader to go from the initial ah moment to pretty much fully understanding how the fox works?

[Captain Jack]

Here's a chart I posted at Forex Factory about 8-9 months ago....the 2nd chart is an update, the "?" indicated the current pullback to come.......

Once again, something to watch over the many coming months....


CJ

Hi CJ

Impressive Mon Capitaine

How did you come up with this potential prediction?

Merci

Some people say they talk to the dead and the dead talk to them....I talk to the charts and sometimes they talk back....

It's something that I don't think people can grasp. It starts at the 'tick" level. Watch a tick chart and see what you make of it. It's completely different from what we are discussing at present.

Do you believe the market is random and that price location can not be predicted at any given point in the future? Do you believe that "news" drives price? Do you believe in market or price manipulation or free market action? Do you believe the worlds currencies are 'economically" linked?

I believe price has a rhythm and beat, much like a piece of music. Listen to the music long enough and you memorize it. I also believe price follows a map if you will, and it's journey is already planned. Locate the map, follow it and you will do what nobody else has done. To actually know where price will be in the future. Imagine that!

Now allow me to pull myself back from the razors edge of sanity and get back to the "fox hunt".

CJ

[casapips]

Here's a chart I posted at Forex Factory about 8-9 months ago....the 2nd chart is an update, the "?" indicated the current pullback to come.......

Once again, something to watch over the many coming months....


CJ

Hi CJ

Impressive Mon Capitaine

How did you come up with this potential prediction?

Merci

Some people say they talk to the dead and the dead talk to them....I talk to the charts and sometimes they talk back....

It's something that I don't think people can grasp. It starts at the 'tick" level. Watch a tick chart and see what you make of it. It's completely different from what we are discussing at present.

Do you believe the market is random and that price location can not be predicted at any given point in the future? Do you believe that "news" drives price? Do you believe in market or price manipulation or free market action? Do you believe the worlds currencies are 'economically" linked?

I believe price has a rhythm and beat, much like a piece of music. Listen to the music long enough and you memorize it. I also believe price follows a map if you will, and it's journey is already planned. Locate the map, follow it and you will do what nobody else has done. To actually know where price will be in the future. Imagine that!

Now allow me to pull myself back from the razors edge of sanity and get back to the "fox hunt".

CJ

Woahh! You are not only a genius Trader but also a brilliant Poète and Musician.
I hope to feel soon the same market rhythm and follow our friendly fox...

Merci mon ami...

[Captain Jack]

Nice to see you posting, John. It's fun watching the lights go on for some. I'd love a camera to watch the utter confusion spark into understanding. I enjoy seeing how many, once they get the content, will put in the time and energy to turn it into knowledge and wisdom.

Hey. Here is one on a slightly different path. Are you picking pairs based on how fast they are moving? Or pure setups? Or just favorites? My relentless pursuit of the fox has me continuously searching for where they are most active. I like them fast foxes best. But perhaps I am missing something.

Thanks for your time. Feel free to correct my ramblings. I'm all about seeing how I could look at it differently. I try and preface them with a disclaimer of just beginner foxy glasses and defer to the master. But I enjoy the discussions, and use it to hone my skills.

Hope you're having a great one.

Mike

If you ever look at my trades, I have traded every pair possible, including metals. USDSEEK or EURHUF is no different than EURUSD and GBPAUD. Price is driven the same way, by the same "pilots", across all the pair. They do not move as a synchronized dance team would, they all dance to their own beat. Some will slow while others speed up. Some will stand still when price is manipulated in the crosses. They all follow their own cycles. My recent trades were not perfect entry and exit. I took maximum number of trades across pairs to show what's out there. When serious money is on the line, I will reduce the trades, concentrate on a few pair, like I did with EURGBP and hammer the hell out of them.

For what we are doing, looking for moves on the 15M, the 1H charts give a good indication of what and where in the weekly cycles the pair are located, at any given time. Again, you have to pull the old nose back out of the charts a bit and take a look around.

There will be setups every day, but they will not be in the same pair every day. Sometimes a pair will range longer, until an imbalance in position is established. Anytime there is major news due, count on a violent stop hunt. Before the news event, count on extended ranging to build positions, both ways so the stop hunt can eat them all.

Point is, take time to scan the charts. There is no need to constantly be in a trade. The range is always set during Asian, the break almost always comes during London and the reverse is NY, back to the range. They work with each other, across all three shifts. They are limited in resource, and must take profit off the table. When price moves out of range then back, profit is booked and the next cycle begins. Look at the 1st chart posted in this thread. Price started at a point, moved above and below the range and ended at the same point it began....this is the larger version of the pattern, that took place over a month or more.

The same process that appears on the 15M WILL appear on the higher time frames, hitting the 30M first then working it's way all the way up to the monthly. Locate the pattern on ANY time frame and follow it.

We're hitting it hard on the 15M because it plays out here quickly. Take longer term trades based on the same pattern, on the higher time frames. They are there.

CJ

[Captain Jack]

It seems the best time to trade would be from early morning like 4am to 18pm GMT. Then after the 18pm GMT the second reversal has happened and the market should go into range mode for the asian session with limited setups. Then you wake up at 4am, identify the asian session range, wait for the stop hunt if it hasnt already happened and hopefully it will show u the true trend of the day. Round about 13:00 GMT after the true trend has reach a new low/high, be on the lookout for a reversal. Finally close out your positions by 18:00. All whilst looking for additional quick scalping opportunities on the small timeframes using the "M" and "W" patterns.


Would you say this is about right CJ?

Look for the break out of the range at the end of Asian, the beginning of the move at London into London about 1/2 way...and the reverse in NY....whatever times those match up with in your locale zones.

CJ

[Captain Jack]

What I saw to make me want to put a trade on here....

CJ

Hi CJ
If you have a second could you briefly explain what is meant by the terms 'trapping volume'?
and 'continuation'

cheers
Daryl

I'll go back and check on the continuation....but "trapping volume" is sticking the largest amount of contracts or positions. When they spike it low and get a lot of people looking to short, they pull price back above them. Then they will drop it again, only not as low as before, enticing more shorts, but not letting the others out of their positions. Price is still above then. They will do this and trap a large volume of shorts, then move price away from them....forcing them to sell at a loss.

Draw a descending trend line and you will see that after a short rise, they dropped price quickly - one candle. If you draw the descending trend line, you will see it was near the point of drop. They were trying to say the down trend was still in effect. Continuation of the down trend so they could get some more shorts before moving price away from them again.

CJ

Thank you, Oh my God, I didn't realise the fox was such a nasty beast!
Attached is the GBpAud 1Hour chart... Is this another example of trapping short volume? with a rise to follow?

GbpAud.JPG

Looks that way...series of pins to the low, each one higher that the last....if they get enough volume there, up it goes.

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Okay time for the opticians, and have my vision checked.

CJ asks "What do you see?" Here is my answer:


So that's what I see. I wonder if I need a new set of glasses?

You will soon be able to throw away your glasses as you vision is getting much better!

Chasing the sly fox wears this old man out...taking a rest....now where's that 'shine?

CJ

WOW

Pick your jaw up....just play money in a demo account....right?

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Peeps,

Oh Dear, my Hunch was Right but I fell asleep and missed taking loads of Profit but ehhhh I'll Live with what I could take, next time I'll Stay awake take the Profits first and then fall Asleep :!:
CJ, I am outfoxing em, I am loving this now.

Now I am going to move along and find something else for my next set of trades.

Happy Trading Y'all,

xrismak.

Look for 50-60 pips on the 15M tf before a reversal. Take the trade the other way, back into the consolidation/range phase. Exit it when they peak price before bringing it into the range at the end of the day since this is NY session.

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Okay time for the opticians, and have my vision checked.

CJ asks "What do you see?" Here is my answer:


So that's what I see. I wonder if I need a new set of glasses?

You will soon be able to throw away your glasses as you vision is getting much better!

Chasing the sly fox wears this old man out...taking a rest....now where's that 'shine?

CJ

You are too generous and transparent man. You know some of us keeners will plot and study each one of those, right?

You earned the sip, and the nap. Hell I felt like I'd earned mine and I quit an hour earlier

Thanks.

There are some nice ones in there from my real account, but a lot were just made on the demo account and I was just grabbing parts of the move. Left a lot on the table doing this number of trades. I'll be dumping that account soon and staring another, with less and more selective trades soon.

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Look at average position on EJ from all positions of myfxbook - some kind of SSI (green is av. buy price, red is av. sell price). After the fox will hunt more buys, they push the price inbetween these lines. To stuck all of them (longs and shorts)

I'd say most of those SHORTS are gone by now....Look how the price is ranging above and below the mid line. You are right, there are a ton of LONGS here, some SHORTS took it on the chin in the 1st drop...now the LONGs are going to take a beating....just my thoughts....

CJ