The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[lhDT]

Quickly run trough a couple of charts. Here is what I find. Comments welcome.

You need to consider where in the levels price is located on each time frame....I would not count on all those going higher....what if the "W" that is presented is only the pause between the next level? Could it not rise to consolidation, then continue the current direction?

Take a look at the daily chart....how many levels of drop from the high? Is it currently in a previous consolidation zone, or is there nothing but air to the left?

"W"'s on a drop could indicate an area to close shorts and then reload on the pull back and consolidation phase. Short orders can then be place if the drop continues.

Moves on the 15M can go either way, within a larger trend. Knowing where you are on each time frame is very important.

CJ

Alternative scenario is indeed a drop, this should be 2nd drop cycle to around 94.40 which is the next support level. To complete the 3 legs, it then should drop around 93~92.80.
But within M15, I would love to see a bull/reversal candle within a strong uptrend.

[Captain Jack]

Quickly run trough a couple of charts. Here is what I find. Comments welcome.

You need to consider where in the levels price is located on each time frame....I would not count on all those going higher....what if the "W" that is presented is only the pause between the next level? Could it not rise to consolidation, then continue the current direction?

Take a look at the daily chart....how many levels of drop from the high? Is it currently in a previous consolidation zone, or is there nothing but air to the left?

"W"'s on a drop could indicate an area to close shorts and then reload on the pull back and consolidation phase. Short orders can then be place if the drop continues.

Moves on the 15M can go either way, within a larger trend. Knowing where you are on each time frame is very important.

CJ

Alternative scenario is indeed a drop, this should be 2nd drop cycle to around 94.40 which is the next support level. To complete the 3 legs, it then should drop around 93~92.80.
But within M15, I would love to see a bull/reversal candle within a strong uptrend.

You will get 8-1H candles just in the Asian session....that's 32-15M candles....keep your eye on the picture that fox is painting and make your move when the time is right....

This is the "homework" we should be doing on each pair, over the weekend, between sessions when trading is slow, etc. Keep a notebook and write it all down. Another good idea is to use the text and label tools within Empty4 and place level, step indicators on your charts. It's a good visual reminder. When I'm stacking trades, I'll place lines on the charts at times. These are break or take lines. Places I look for a retrace or break. On a break, I'll add more orders. On a retrace, I'll take my profits and look to place new orders.

A lot of "W"'s were printing Friday, so I went into "take" mode and booked profits. I'll look to re-enter or take new positions Sunday night.

When the fox turns tail, go with him, don't run the wrong way with the rest of the hounds....

CJ

[Reaper]

Seems like I missed some action, good call in nipping it in the bud. This is an awesome thread thus far, dont want it ruined.

Couldn't sleep kept thinking about charts, and asian expansions. Anyone know if there is a way if the asian range is tight to measure/predict the amount of expansion perhaps based on the ADR or I have seen that it might be possible to use fibs? Can it be done?

[mjws00]

Alternative scenario is indeed a drop, this should be 2nd drop cycle to around 94.40 which is the next support level. To complete the 3 legs, it then should drop around 93~92.80.
But within M15, I would love to see a bull/reversal candle within a strong uptrend.

I love your broader chart. To me it looks like they may print that W, and pull a straightaway on us without much of a pullback up. Asia might mess with it. But that shakeout up top is picture perfect, we've hit the first leg, on to the next series down. After those more major tops sometimes they like the straightaway. I see nothing but air to the left, so lots and lots of hidden selling pressure as their profits evaporate. And the late short traders get on board. They might also pay off a few breakout traders to join in and drive it lower, imho.

Might be a scalp in it up though. I know you are nimble enough to pull it off if it is there. Plus BOJ can always do something interesting.

Mike

[Reaper]

GBPCHF Prediction, who's with me?

[Captain Jack]

Seems like I missed some action, good call in nipping it in the bud. This is an awesome thread thus far, dont want it ruined.

Couldn't sleep kept thinking about charts, and asian expansions. Anyone know if there is a way if the asian range is tight to measure/predict the amount of expansion perhaps based on the ADR or I have seen that it might be possible to use fibs? Can it be done?

Take a look at some of the Asian ranges that formed on Friday. There was some really low, tight ranges.... so what's that mean? It means that the spring is compressed tight and something will probably "pop" in one direction or the other.

The session indicator that Mike posted can help you see this "range box" if you are having trouble. These compressed ranges tend to form more towards the end of the week, Thursdays and Fridays. Even Bob mentions in his thread that the larger moves tend to be towards the end of the week. Reason being is that the fox needs to take profit and tends to make larger and more volatile moves near the weekend. They will do it in time, with size, to make their money and bring price back into a "ranging" area for the weekend.

Next week, starts out slower with wider Asian ranges as they have more time to work the zones and build positions....end of week rolls around again, look for the compressed range and the larger moves.

Since they can only move price so much in any given day or week, ADR plays it's part. Find a pair with a compressed Asian range, price near the HOD or LOD and it should be gold. They would have the entire range to push price, then bring it as far back into the range as 50%...validating the fib and S&R values....trade both ways....

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Good work Steve I was about to hit the ban button myself.

We mods are soooooooo competitive. Fastest trigger finger first.........

I just added CJ to our ranks, so the rest of us have no chance.

Now I need to find a way to slide the "Ban" button in between the "Buy" and "Sell" buttons and it's all gravy!

CJ

[hamburglar]

Capt'n where can i find the session indi mike posted? I cannot find it?

thanks Jim

Seems like I missed some action, good call in nipping it in the bud. This is an awesome thread thus far, dont want it ruined.

Couldn't sleep kept thinking about charts, and asian expansions. Anyone know if there is a way if the asian range is tight to measure/predict the amount of expansion perhaps based on the ADR or I have seen that it might be possible to use fibs? Can it be done?

Take a look at some of the Asian ranges that formed on Friday. There was some really low, tight ranges.... so what's that mean? It means that the spring is compressed tight and something will probably "pop" in one direction or the other.

The session indicator that Mike posted can help you see this "range box" if you are having trouble. These compressed ranges tend to form more towards the end of the week, Thursdays and Fridays. Even Bob mentions in his thread that the larger moves tend to be towards the end of the week. Reason being is that the fox needs to take profit and tends to make larger and more volatile moves near the weekend. They will do it in time, with size, to make their money and bring price back into a "ranging" area for the weekend.

Next week, starts out slower with wider Asian ranges as they have more time to work the zones and build positions....end of week rolls around again, look for the compressed range and the larger moves.

Since they can only move price so much in any given day or week, ADR plays it's part. Find a pair with a compressed Asian range, price near the HOD or LOD and it should be gold. They would have the entire range to push price, then bring it as far back into the range as 50%...validating the fib and S&R values....trade both ways....

CJ

[mjws00]

Here man. http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... 675#p45675

[jasonckb]

I still can't grasp the method firmly but am trying my best......

Here comes my observation of AUDUSD. It is at the lower part of the linear regression channel, and possible forming a M(with a higher high) at the top. It will go a bit higher to flush out all the shorts then drop and break the LRC.