cjthomson wrote:cjthomson wrote:The_Snowman wrote:Anyone on the NZD-USD?
If it breaks the confluence of -
- low of weekly open range
- 4H SuperTrend
- Mid Support 1
- Round number at 0.82
Thanks Snowman - I saw your response as I was compiling this post. I think my questions still linger though...
Bob,
Just want to pick your brains about getting to a b/e position if you don't mind. See the attached chart: [I've rounded to pip values for simplicity sake]
On the trigger of Pos 2 the rules say to move the SL for Pos 1 to the mid way between the entries for Pos 1 & 2. Taking the example below, if I do this the revised SL for Pos 1 will put me to 10 pip profit for that position. However, if price moves against me after entry of Pos 2 and collects both SL's then this leaves me in a net loss - ? P1 = 10 pips profit; P2 = 30 pip loss; equals a 20 pip net loss across both. How do I eliminate the chance of loss to a worst case of b/e, shoudl I possibly take profit for Pos 1 at the Pos 2 entry point?
My other question here is about Risk Reward - Position 1 we're risking 80 pips to 50 pips reward; Position 2 we're risking 30 pips for 20 pip profit. If both get to TP then I take a 60 pip profit (sum of both positions) versus an 80 pip risk which is still skewed to an unfavourable R:R. Am I understanding this correctly, or given this example one would not enter a position such as this if the sum of the TP's were not at least 1.5 reward to 1 risk?
Your comments would be appreciated. Hopefully answers to these questions will help a few others.
I have changed the rules for R:R from ratios to probability. In other words what are the chances of price hitting the 240 line on any trade. In a trend they become very very low. In range you are on top of the 240 line so the losses are small. The multiple levels help you make up what used to be trying to find bigger than 1:1 win loss ratios. In other words in a trend you hope to have so many winning trades they make up for the occasional loss which you limit by lot size to 2% MAX. So my position is R:R is based on trading with a very low risk to hitting the SL and limiting losses to 2% max. The winning trades will greatly outnumber the losing trades because when they take you get more than one. For example I have concentrated on USD, JPY and AUD pairs the last two days.
JPY pairs I had 10 winners and 3 losers. The 3 losers none were bigger than 24 pips. I took my profit and closed because I was sitting with 2 in the win column and the third one took but didnt go anywhere right away. I had no chance of hitting a SL on any of them.
AUD pairs I was 7-5 but my biggest loser was -15 pips
USD pairs I was 8-1 with my biggest loser -6 pips.
I dont play around waiting for home runs. I trade and I pocket profits. My total for all trades the last two days was 23-11 for a total of 311 pips net. That was from winning 506 pips to losing 195. I am out of Monday's hole and now looking at a profitable week.
That is my risk to reward ratio. Monday I hit a several SL and then I came roaring back even during a very slow dead week. Despite the GBP jumping all over the place today it still basically is treading water. The beauty was I had multiple TP while nothing got close to a SL. The problem is i didnt get a lot of pips out of it probably because of widening spreads during some of those runs.
That is my risk to reward ratio, not based on the old formula but a new formula of winning trades over losers. A bad trade is one level, a winning trade can be 1-4 levels. The whole philosophy of 10.4 is based on inertia. Once things get going in your direction you multiply your odds. If it goes against you, you have one losing trade. That is how I redefine risk to reward ratio.
