The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Captain Jack]

Might not get the full 50 on these sets'....will be watching for the bottom turn....

CJ

CJ please refer to your GCAD sell trade on 20 March.

What made you so sure that price would tank here?. was it the rapid rise? We did have 3 levels of rise the previous day. And the sudden fall was followed by an equally sudden rise.

So trying to see the logic here.

thanks

It's a big stop hunt....look at the pattern it formed and the location and direction of the pins...they repeat it and I've traded it before.

I made 20-30 trades or more on this pair so I'm not sure which one you are talking about...a picture would help.

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Hi CJ,

Sorry to bother you again. I would like to draw some lessons on my GJ trade on Friday, please kindly give me some guidance:

GJ chart below shows 2 long wicks (red) which looked like a good setup for level 3 push, then a pull back in NY session. But after trade was entered but price went south. Luckily the trade was recovered after the long RRT was formed later and price come back.

1. Did I read the chart correctly ?
2. Price went below L2 low, would the 3 level push is still valid as price seems heading to L3 ?
3. Is there situations where 3 level push cannot complete and reset ?

Thank you for your patient.
Ron

Your level and count appear right, but you are trading on the 1H time frame. The patterns are still the same. Price was in a range....the a 3 candle push dropped below the range into a stop hunt, this is the pattern. You just got in early.

I entered my UJ trade at the same point on the 15M time frame, price continued lower on it as well and I took additional entry at the bottom of the stop hunt, closed it at the top of the stop hunt and rode price back down into the range with another set of orders.

You need to work on identifying the stop hunts, when they hit the stops low then high in this case. Sometimes they hit them high then low. Depends on the pair and the trend.

Some pair tend to have more pins than others and are harder to trade. NZDUSD is another one with lots of pins...

CJ

[nicoacademia]

Hi Captain Jack
really must say thank you for putting in all your effort into posting n updating and clarifying for us all.
i'm greatly appreciative of all your work.
i love how you sling out all your orders. "if i'm right i'm right all the way" style.

i've done my homework. learn by doing. and just want to clarify just one thing that bugs me.
i know the 3 pushes will not always be perfect. but the fox will always have to push his book.

1)how would you handle the missing count in the middle of last week on the EJ 1H pair?
it did do a nice W. with a small stop hunt after the pins cluster.

2)looking at the way the EJ ended the week. is that counted as 1 push up(although they pinned it both ways=stop hunt). meaning the peak low(and also cracked week low) was made?

thanks for teaching us to tag the foxes trail

130322 ej weekend.png

[Captain Jack]

Hi Captain Jack
really must say thank you for putting in all your effort into posting n updating and clarifying for us all.
i'm greatly appreciative of all your work.
i love how you sling out all your orders. "if i'm right i'm right all the way" style.

i've done my homework. learn by doing. and just want to clarify just one thing that bugs me.
i know the 3 pushes will not always be perfect. but the fox will always have to push his book.

1)how would you handle the missing count in the middle of last week on the EJ 1H pair?
it did do a nice W. with a small stop hunt after the pins cluster.

2)looking at the way the EJ ended the week. is that counted as 1 push up(although they pinned it both ways=stop hunt). meaning the peak low(and also cracked week low) was made?

thanks for teaching us to tag the foxes trail

130322 ej weekend.png

Your chart looks good....and you will not always get 3 levels up or down. How to handle it is to trade the "W" and the 2 pins to the low give you the clues. The 2 pins down are where the shorts are trapped and you want to be long there....

Yes, EJ should be at level 1 consolidation and you should not trade short out of this formation....do not trade back towards the peak low if the fox heads that way...wait for his turn and pin your order to his a$$! Think of this every time you see those pins.

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Hi CJ,

Sorry to bother you again. I would like to draw some lessons on my GJ trade on Friday, please kindly give me some guidance:

GJ chart below shows 2 long wicks (red) which looked like a good setup for level 3 push, then a pull back in NY session. But after trade was entered but price went south. Luckily the trade was recovered after the long RRT was formed later and price come back.

1. Did I read the chart correctly ?
2. Price went below L2 low, would the 3 level push is still valid as price seems heading to L3 ?
3. Is there situations where 3 level push cannot complete and reset ?

Thank you for your patient.
Ron

The fox tricked alot of people on this day with the jpy pairs. I personally find the jpy pairs slightly more riskier at times. Its harder to use pins to identify the stop hunts. Just look at the H1 chart every candle has pins on pretty much both sides. If you were to go to the h4 chart you could see that from the 14th to now there is a giant wedge forming. Okay now it becomes slightly clearer, there was a W within a giant M. Now the bottom part of M seems like it needed to touch the bottom part of the wedge.

That being said I dont trade these M and W patterns off the H4, I only find the quality setups off the H1 using the H4 and Daily to see the bigger picture and look for RTTs.

CJ will probably advise you better.

If you follow the rules for "W" and "M"'s and took entry on the 2nd leg, then you would have made a lot of money on both formations.

CJ

[Reaper]

Hi CJ,

Sorry to bother you again. I would like to draw some lessons on my GJ trade on Friday, please kindly give me some guidance:

GJ chart below shows 2 long wicks (red) which looked like a good setup for level 3 push, then a pull back in NY session. But after trade was entered but price went south. Luckily the trade was recovered after the long RRT was formed later and price come back.

1. Did I read the chart correctly ?
2. Price went below L2 low, would the 3 level push is still valid as price seems heading to L3 ?
3. Is there situations where 3 level push cannot complete and reset ?

Thank you for your patient.
Ron

Your level and count appear right, but you are trading on the 1H time frame. The patterns are still the same. Price was in a range....the a 3 candle push dropped below the range into a stop hunt, this is the pattern. You just got in early.

I entered my UJ trade at the same point on the 15M time frame, price continued lower on it as well and I took additional entry at the bottom of the stop hunt, closed it at the top of the stop hunt and rode price back down into the range with another set of orders.

You need to work on identifying the stop hunts, when they hit the stops low then high in this case. Sometimes they hit them high then low. Depends on the pair and the trend.

Some pair tend to have more pins than others and are harder to trade. NZDUSD is another one with lots of pins...

CJ

I skipped the jpy pairs on friday and I'm glad I did. You knew what was happening and made money. It wasnt so clear to me and I just moved on to another pair. That stop hunt was nasty. You can see what the foxes are doing, a giant wedge is giant accumulation period before the trend resumes.

[Lifesys]

Yes, sorry CJ, I would have to agree with Fok on the D1 candle for the 20th March NZDUSD. The strong rise was clearly on the 21st, starting with hour 1 and not the last 2 hours of the 20th by true Forex week.
This again shows the severe weakness in the GMT system. In this case it completely distorts D1 candles to show 3 rises 20th, 21, & 22 when there were only 2, 21st & 22nd.
You can't really use D1 or H4 candles as being decisively Up or Down when H1 candles are moved from one day to another by GMT (non-NYClose or Forex open) brokers.
This should not affect trading if M15/H1 is used but people just have to get used to the fact that H4 & D1 will be different.

march20-D1.gif

march20-H1.gif

[Reaper]

Right I have 10 pairs on my watchlist for Monday. How do I narrow this down?

I would like to say AUDUSD/NZDUSD are going to fall. So these are at the top of my list. Anyone else agree or has different ideas?

Also I have a feeling AUDCAD may also fall nicely come Monday. May provide us with a H&S pattern to short.

[xrismak]

HI Captain. Thanks for the thread . Read thru all of it today. Could you clarify GCAD on which level it is cos it has such wide variations that I cant figure it out. My chart posted.

GBPCAD is full of stop hunts....they can't be counted as levels....they use them to keep traders from riding the trend higher...shaking them out along the way....

CJ

El Capitaine CJ,

I Understand Clearly Now, thanks for the Visuals, I have seen this setup loads of Times on Loads of Charts now it makes Absolute Sense. The fox is in Trouble, I am Smiling.

Happy Trading Y'all

xrismak

[Captain Jack]

Yes, sorry CJ, I would have to agree with Fok on the D1 candle for the 20th March NZDUSD. The strong rise was clearly on the 21st, starting with hour 1 and not the last 2 hours of the 20th by true Forex week.
This again shows the severe weakness in the GMT system. In this case it completely distorts D1 candles to show 3 rises 20th, 21, & 22 when there were only 2, 21st & 22nd.
You can't really use D1 or H4 candles as being decisively Up or Down when H1 candles are moved from one day to another by GMT (non-NYClose or Forex open) brokers.
This should not affect trading if M15/H1 is used but people just have to get used to the fact that H4 & D1 will be different.

march20-D1.gif

march20-H1.gif

You folks are more than welcome to do your level counts any way you want. By my count, day one of the price rise from the peak low began on the 20th...it's what I base my trades on. You guys are more than welcome to base yours on your observations of candle color based on any given brokers time shift. Don't ask me to validate your choices based on your rules. I don't trade based on your rules and you will find that I will break most of them. You have asked me why I chose the levels I did and you have received the answer.

It is rules of this very type that the market makers use against you and other traders. You are also welcome to continue to trade by those rules should you choose to do so. It's your account, you are responsible for it.

I don't offer trade signals nor trade recommendations. I offer an alternative way of looking at this market and my ideas for trading it. Those are not open for change and there are no rigid absolutes in my methods. I am a trader, not an analyst, and least of all not a "cookie cutter purist" or I would still be doing the same old BS that still doesn't work.

If I sound pissed, it's because I am. I'm trying to tell you that you are trading in a rigged market. It's rigged against you from the start. You don't stand a chance! Everything you know is a lie, yet you seek to perpetrate that lie by insisting on what you know to be correct. Tell a lie enough and it becomes the truth. People of this planet would still believe the earth was flat if they had the mindset of forex traders. I captain my own ship. If you are afraid to sail your ship to the ends of the flat forex world and look into the abyss, then stay at home with your flat beliefs. There's no place here for them.

CJ