If you remember I dropped 5.0 because of volatility. I always thought I could ride out any trend until I began to understand the long term potential of Govt. going out of business or going bankrupt. Greece and Cypress are the tip of the ice burg. What is underneath the water is really really ugly. It is why Euro is now going to demand assets to get further loans. Countries have gotten to far under to recover. USA is lucky right now because it will become the largest producer of oil in 5 years. That will help it to overcome its debt, IF THE NUT CASES IN CONGRESS AND THE WHITE HOUSE every get the budget at least close to balance. The USA has the assets to overcome their debt but it must get control of its budget. Some of these other countries dont have those kind of assets so what can they do? I concluded there would be moves at times that would go beyond what 5.0 could recover from. So starting with 1.0 and then 10.0 I changed my trading strategy. I am ready now, let the big moves come and if they suddenly change I will know.zentauro67 wrote:Maybe this was the weak point in Old 5.0 system. It was good in normal markets, but unexpected news could make a killing trade beyond any recovery system. Following old 5.0 you should be here (EURNZD) looking for a reversal, with 10.4 you are betting for a continuation.nanningbob wrote:
Yeah but that is not the issue. This is where traders who specialize in overbought and oversold get their butts handed to them. When you get into these DT that can last for months, yes you are going to be 3,4,5,600 or more pips away from the 240 line. This is where a news driven market differs from the normal market.
Who is going to come in a buy the Euro and make it go up 100, 200, 500 pips anyway? Even if they do how long do you think it is going to last? What do you think is going to happen to the French banks when their loans start going under. The contagion is spreading. Somewhere, somehow, the govt. debt wagon will come to an end. Yes Cypress got new loans and Greece got new loans and Italy and Spain can still get new loans but what happens when they cant. Then France is next. Then what? At some point budgets have to be balanced and loans have to be paid off or paid down. When will that happen?? The "End game of the Debt Super Cycle" it has arrived. No we get to watch it play out. Greece got loans, kick the can, Spain got loans, kick the can, Italy got loans, kick the can, Cypress, WHeeeeeeeeew, they got loans but more difficult now, kick the can. Now what? Whose turn is next? Japan?? 230%+ debt to GDP ratio. The debt is owned by the people who are retiring now and need the money for their retirement. Where is that money coming from? They have to produce a surplus budget now to repay their people their loans. How many decades has it been since they even had a balanced budget. Yup, it could get really ugly out there.
Oh if the Brits want to chime in about their country, they can. They are the world's masters at avoiding the big crash.
