The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Reaper]

Part 1 was looking for Ms and Ws at peaks and bottoms. Learning about the ranges, false breaks and stop hunts.

Part 2 was finding the 3 level pushes for the best moves.

Part 3 is forecasting. I dont want to be drawing loads of lines and channels on my chart, the whole point of this thread is naked charting. Now I'm starting to understand more and more. I'll try and share my thoughts.

We look for Ms and Ws at peaks and troughs. However we also get Ws in all uptrends and Ms in all downtrends by default. HHs/HLs, LHs/LLs give us the patterns that we have come to love.

I think with forecasting we need to use two important pieces of price action that hasnt really been mentioned. The gradient and the distance between legs of these patterns that can help us determine where price is going to go and when will that be. No its not going to work 100% of the time like with everything and every pair might have its own quirks, but if you know price is going to rise after a steep downward 3 level move, do you have a rough idea of where it is going to hit? I think these components might be the final piece.

CJ, do you use these in your forecasting on the larger TFs?

[Fable]

Hi guys !

Is this a proper M pattern for you ? (EJ M15)

[bluedog23]

Hello CJ,

At times I find it difficult to identify "pushes". In the attached chart is the drop down into the large consolidation zone considered push 1? Or is push 1 the drop out of the consolidation zone.

I am a relatively new trader to FX and only trading live for a few weeks. I am happy to say that I am up substantially since going live and following your thread. I appreciate the knowledge you are sharing. I have quickly arrived at the point that it drives me nuts if a chart has indicators posted on it. Thought you might get a laugh out of that.

Thanks,

Ray

[Captain Jack]

Hello CJ,

At times I find it difficult to identify "pushes". In the attached chart is the drop down into the large consolidation zone considered push 1? Or is push 1 the drop out of the consolidation zone.

I am a relatively new trader to FX and only trading live for a few weeks. I am happy to say that I am up substantially since going live and following your thread. I appreciate the knowledge you are sharing. I have quickly arrived at the point that it drives me nuts if a chart has indicators posted on it. Thought you might get a laugh out of that.

Thanks,

Ray

I would think that you have to go back to the last highest high before you begin your count. If that's the case, we should be at level 3 low. If we are, you can expect to see a test of the low, but the previous low should hold and price could rise from that point, to give us a level 1 rise off the peak low.

Take a look on the D1 as well, you see that they have held price at this level for a day to pick up contracts. Look for the next D1 candle to pin low, but not lower than the previous D1 candle. A break and close below the previous low indicates another level down.

The 3rd level down was hit when the the Low formed...the orange circle indicates the day that price was held at this level to allow accumulation to take place, during the extra day.

Glad to here you are starting out on the right foot and doing well as a new trader.

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Hi guys !

Is this a proper M pattern for you ? (EJ M15)

I would expect a higher high on the 2nd leg with some nice long pins to the high if it is....

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Part 1 was looking for Ms and Ws at peaks and bottoms. Learning about the ranges, false breaks and stop hunts.

Part 2 was finding the 3 level pushes for the best moves.

Part 3 is forecasting. I dont want to be drawing loads of lines and channels on my chart, the whole point of this thread is naked charting. Now I'm starting to understand more and more. I'll try and share my thoughts.

We look for Ms and Ws at peaks and troughs. However we also get Ws in all uptrends and Ms in all downtrends by default. HHs/HLs, LHs/LLs give us the patterns that we have come to love.

I think with forecasting we need to use two important pieces of price action that hasnt really been mentioned. The gradient and the distance between legs of these patterns that can help us determine where price is going to go and when will that be. No its not going to work 100% of the time like with everything and every pair might have its own quirks, but if you know price is going to rise after a steep downward 3 level move, do you have a rough idea of where it is going to hit? I think these components might be the final piece.

CJ, do you use these in your forecasting on the larger TFs?

Something like that....but at the tick chart level... I'm not sure I'll get into that here as you can get yourself in trouble quickly trying to forecast price....

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Hi Captain, i have been getting alot of nice trades following your style. I see already that my hit rate has improved...thank you very much, may the good Lord bless you and your loved ones . I will keep practicing till i can trade it like you. Happy Easter.

Rich

Thanks for the kind words and may you and your family have a blessed Easter as well.

It looks like you are doing just fine the way you are trading now...Trust me, you really don't want to try to trade as I do, just make it "fit" you.

CJ

[Captain Jack]

CJ, what can I say?

How 'bout "the check's in the mail'?

Thanks for the kind words Steve. The thread has grown quickly here and is full of useful info. If you have any questions, feel free to post them and they'll get answered.

Knowing the patterns that are used and being able to recognize them as they are formed is the key to all of this. You have to understand that they use the same ones, over and over, but will mix or dirty them up a bit to make recognition harder. The RRT's, "W", "M"'s and stop hunts are the easier ones to see. Once you pick up on these, then it's the combinations and how they are put together.

Lot's of places to make a wrong move and they give us the opportunity to do so all the time.

Thanks for splitting the thread out to a sub-forum. Some of the members can post their trading journals or trade setups in separate threads if they choose.

BARF is actually being used within this thread and some recognize it for what it is. I may get into a separate thread for it or may just bring it more to the forefront in this thread. I would be concerned about getting "too many irons in the fire" and don't want the quality of the subject matter to suffer.

As it is now, I have the time to share these thoughts with the good people here, but a day may come where other tasks take the forefront. Until then, we move forward.

John

[Reaper]

Do we have an inverted H&S on some on the yen pairs signalling the end of the down move, start of the uptrend? Or is the final leg not really pinny enough yet?

This end of quarter business really messes with my brain, last week I was on fire. I hope charts return to normal next week.

[lhDT]

Do we have an inverted H&S on some on the yen pairs signalling the end of the down move, start of the uptrend? Or is the final leg not really pinny enough yet?

This end of quarter business really messes with my brain, last week I was on fire. I hope charts return to normal next week.

Low volatility today, spreads are higher, bank holidays in DE, CHF, BE, UK, light news ... Staying aside and reviewing charts.