lhDT wrote:Captain Jack wrote:lhDT wrote:Last week was good but this one nope. In fact I'm always a bit afraid of buying to lows & selling he highs ... afraid of more follow trough.
Example : I Spot a good "W", I want to go long at the "\/\_" leg and then it suddenly drop more and SL is hit ...
Post some charts where the trades failed Lio, it will help to analyze what went wrong....
CJ
Thanks CJ, here is one on cable.
1. I saw a "W" but my bias was to the downside on cable so I decided to go short at the "V" from the "W", my target was to lock at the bottom to see what is going on (honnestly I was expecting a break to the downside).
2. Doesn't do what it should do ... so I re-shorted at a new high. Trade was in profit and I could exit both for a BE but my bias was still fixed to the downside.
3.I saw a big spike late in the day, so I decide to short again around a new high retest. Was end of day so chances were to a retrace ...
Unfortunately nope, nothing worked and I existed with a 1% loss overall.
When reviewing bad trades after the week, the errors we made are always crystal clear ... unfortunately this isn't happening when you hit the button in a live market.
I think my biggest mistake here was to enter on the "V" instead of waiting the complete W formation (which never happened btw).
CJ, Please comment
PS : Reviewing bad trades in "public" is a kind of a therapy
Everyone should do that !
Yes, unfortunately, this isn't the way to trade the "W" and "M" formations....
You should have determined what level or step in the cycle the pair was currently trading in. This gives you an idea of where price will go, either up or down in the cycle.
GBPUSD had just completed its drop and formed a peak low...this should tell you the pair bias is long, not short. All the pins are to the low and shorts are trapped there. You just happened to become a short who got trapped at a higher level because you will still thinking short...
Price rose from the low and consolidated....it then broke higher, where the stop hunt began. Look at the 3 "momentum" candles that drove price to the bottom of what you label as the 1st leg of the "W"...these are the 3 pushes lower that convince you that price is going south. The pin here is the clue to go long....
When shorts are trapped, there is no reason to lower price again and give them a chance to exit...
There is another stop hunt at the point you label 3...they hit the stops high and then low, this is a clue to add to your long...you buy the stop hunt on the way up and sell them on the way down... I think I mentioned that before in the thread.
Look at past levels and notice how they use the stop hunts in between the levels...they are always there...
Thanks for posting the chart and your trades Lio. It helps to see where we go wrong and why we go wrong at those places. We can all benefit from these trade reviews.
CJ
