10.4 A Complete System

[TraderDesk]

Looking at the E/J chart I don't see a good entry point at the moment. Tomorrow should show us next direction

[spillini]

Im hoping this thing has settled into a nice little 80-90 pip channel leading up to friday. Be nice R & R trades for a little bit. Time will tell.

Jim

Looking at the E/J chart I don't see a good entry point at the moment. Tomorrow should show us next direction

[zentauro67]

EURJPY 4h.


When i see something like this, price going up and down the 240, i say to myself, this bastard is not respecting 10.4, it is ranging.

104.jpg

So, i remove my beloved Bob´s template, and apply a ranging template. What i see there is price in a strong support level with stoch opening up, and only think in longs. EURJPY has been ranging for two months... With so many trending pairs right now i think is better look for 10.4 setups elsewhere.

range.jpg

Sorry for the thread away from its original purpose. (maybe captain j´thread is more appropriate for these examples) Inevitably the price will always be above or below 240MA, but if you spot a ranging pair, maybe is a good point consider it not tradable under 10.4. Otherwise 240 could be misleading.

[nanningbob]

I have said this many times, fundamental news trumps any system, even CJ, Today is a fundamental news day when a govt. plans on takng major action on a currency. I have JPY sells all across the board. 10.4 rules mean nothing. JPY is in a major DT and we are seeing a rally in that DT. The only currency I have doubts is the E/J but today I wlll even try to buy it. I have buy pendings on every jpy pair this morning. I have been talking about this moment for weeks. The day has arrived for the JPY politicians to put up or shut up. This is the program they ran on and got elected on. Good luck

[nanningbob]

Euro and Chf the weakest, NZD, GBP, JPY the strongest.

Bob, remind me how you determine currency strength please? I can't find any TF or setting of CSS that matches your ranking above, looking at about 22:00 GMT on 1 April when you posted it.

News day just forget CSS for now. CSS should be on a daily chart. Like a couple of days ago I ignored CSS because I didnt believe in GBP strength. It was showing a rally in the DT and we took advantage of it. Same thing with JPY, anyway that is what I think will happen. Been wrong before.

[nanningbob]

Yeah I hate the CHF. SNB can interfere at anytime making indicators, news, fundamentals, etc. worthless. I hate trading CHF pairs. Except the AUD/CHF that pair is consistent.

Thanks got it, yeh I have been there many times and the manufacturing industry in the North is quite large and they lobby on the basis of if we can't export then no jobs...so drive the exchange rate down.
Expensive hobby the SNB have in shorting their currency when the financial services sector is projecting an image of swiss means safe.

Something I have been scratching my head on and have some pieces but not all - audnzd used to be a classic envelope trading highly correlated pair .....until it started ...trending (good news on the one hand since I took those LTF envelope trading wallet stealing strats outside put them against a wall and bang) ...anyway Chinese purchasing power in australasia? Not in equal measures? Australia has greater mineral wealth compared to the Kiwi's but it is the aussi that has been falling. Jonathan[/quote]

I used to have a thread called trading the aud/nzd successfully. You could range trade that thing and make a bundle and that was back when it had a 15-25 pip spread. It uncoupled with NZD when China started buying AUD minerals like crazy. Presently China is well stocked on everything Australia has to offer but it has not stopped buying but has slowed down its pace. I have been surprised at how long the AUD has stayed above parity with the USD. Usually its exports start dieing once it gets close to parity but China buying has distorted its normal market. So I got tired of trying to sell AUD.

The problem I see now is depreciation of currency by Euro zone and USD has let the commodity currencies with no other direction but up. Eventually it will kill their economies, CHF has been fighting this like crazy, so NZD and AUD keep going up until they price themselves off the market or they somehow cope with all of this.

[nanningbob]

Here is the JPY news story and what is expected to come down:

Markets' focus over the next few hours will be on the Bank of Japan's first meeting under new governor Haruhiko Kuroda.

In that regard, Bank of America Merrill Lynch forecasts that this monetary policy meeting will result in a blend of easing policies that can be physically implemented and policies that work on expectations, ie, announce intentions with details/implementation later.

All in all, BofA expects the BoJ to announce the following 7 polices:

1. Announcement of early introduction of an open-ended framework (FY13).

2. A suggestion of a forward-guidance framework. (such as “easing to continue until a 2% inflation target is feasibly attainable”).

3. Announcement of elimination of the banknote rule and unification of JGB purchases through the APP and rinban operations. (BofA expects the APP will be maintained for risk assets, integration will depend on the construction of procedural systems i.e. will not be immediate).

4. Extension of the central JGB purchasing zone to longer maturities (with the shift to full rinban this is fully expected, extension to 10 years, plus small rinban increases in the 10- to 30-year range expected, the BoJ may defer announcement of details/technicalities for a later date).

5. After unification of JGB purchasing operations, an increase in the current monthly purchase amount from slightly under ¥5tn to ¥10tn (possibly with a move to net purchase targets like the FRB, implementations and details may come at a later date).

6. Announce gradual elimination of fixed-term funding operations. (A shift to JGB purchases likely. This would make it unnecessary to lower the IOER. Implementations and details may come at a later date).

7. Announcement of the BoJ’s intention to increase purchases of risk assets such as such as ETF, J-REIT, corporate bonds, and CP. (Details to be provided at a later date, but the BoJ’s capital will have to be reinforced or BoJ will have to receive a government guarantee against losses if it is to increase risk asset purchases.

[nanningbob]

TO many of you that is all jibberish and I couldnt explain it in a thousand years. The bottom line is, we are going to depreciate the currency until we get a 2% or greater inflation rate. NO MORE DEFLATION is the motto of the day. So set your pending buys and ride the wave.

[Ingot54]

TO many of you that is all jibberish and I couldnt explain it in a thousand years. The bottom line is, we are going to depreciate the currency until we get a 2% or greater inflation rate. NO MORE DEFLATION is the motto of the day. So set your pending buys and ride the wave.

Bob - I have to thank you for the strong heads-up on the JPY pairs.

I hope you will allow me a word of caution here, without being a killjoy - certainly not intended.

I have been envious to be reading here of all the pips made, and the big number of pairs and trades-per-pair that some of you have been able to make.

My small account has not been designed to handle those kinds of numbers, and I suspect there may be others reading here, who also can't go with the flow and pick up the numbers of trades we read being made.

That's ok with me - because I know my ability ... I know my account size, and I remember your wisdom:

TRADE TO TRADE ANOTHER DAY

I am just cautioning those who are like me, beginning to build their accounts with some lovely 10.4 trades, to keep your head if the expected moves take place. And I want to ask two questions:

1) Do you think the Institutions/brokers/market makers are going to stand by and allow these pesky little fleas (us) to ride along with their trades, without spiking prices both up-and-down to trigger both entries and stops?

2) Where will you be if somehow it goes pear-shaped, and your account gets used to clean the blackboard this week?

And, if I may, can I add a third question ...

3) Will you be any wealthier in 3 months time if you:
a) catch the wave
b) miss the wave, but continue to plug away with your pendings and your 1%'s and 2%'s just like you are doing already?

Food for thought, and honest answers will have you sleeping tonight and sleeping better tonight.

Keep the dream alive ... hold fast to the plan ... stay within your rules ... trade to trade another day.

Normal transmission will resume in a moment ...

[samir45]

Cant agree more with you Ingot. Feel very much the same. Thanks for pointing this out.