The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[xrismak]

03-04-2013 14-47-11 Today's Trades @ Profitable Levels 1.png

03-04-2013 14-47-11 Today's Trades @ Profitable Levels 1.png

03-04-2013 14-47-11 Today's Trades @ Profitable Levels 1.png

Hi guys,

today was a nice M pattern on AJ.. false Asia range breakout -> then M pattern with pin (btw look at volume and spread widening after pin)

El Capitaine CJ,


Thank you Very Very Very much, my Live Trade Results today , I have Never Made this Kind of Money in One Day of Trading, NAKED TRADING ROCKS :!: it's like an ATM Machine in my Living Room, at some point I held my Nerve because I was loosing big time but I had based my entries on the Pins and W and M formations so I knew I was in to a Big Thing and my Analysis Paid off.
Kruspe I like your Chart.

Happy Trading Y'all,

xrismak

[xrismak]

Peeps,

Much later over the weekend I will throw some charts up so that you can all see How I based my Entries and See what I had Done, we can all learn something. I saved them all as I took the Trades.


Happy Trading Y'all

xrismak.

[odellcash]

Haven't heard from the Captain this week, so I assume he's out enjoying the spoils of his successful pillaging of the Fox's den. So I want to ask my fellow shipmates about M (and W) patterns. Are there ways they need (or should) look?

For example; should the top of the M be;
a) almost even
b) sloping down
c) sloping up
d) doesn't matter

Here is an M who's top is sloping up. I don't like seeing high highs when looking for a reverse, so I'm thinking I should pass. Thoughts on this and in general?

The same question I assume applies for W's in reverse. Any one's input is appreciated.

valid_M.png

[kwanann]

Haven't heard from the Captain this week, so I assume he's out enjoying the spoils of his successful pillaging of the Fox's den. So I want to ask my fellow shipmates about M (and W) patterns. Are there ways they need (or should) look?

For example; should the top of the M be;
a) almost even
b) sloping down
c) sloping up
d) doesn't matter

Here is an M who's top is sloping up. I don't like seeing high highs when looking for a reverse, so I'm thinking I should pass. Thoughts on this and in general?

The same question I assume applies for W's in reverse. Any one's input is appreciated.

valid_M.png

One way to determine if it's valid is to zoom in and zoom out, look for confirmation across time frames and history. See if the h1, h4 and d1 concur. The more timeframes that match the higher the chance

Look at all the profit taking happening yesterday due to the news, one must not forget that it's thurs and traders tend to close all positions over the weekend. Yesterday was a good day with all the news to hide their movement across the board.

Level jump is purely reference, it's still down to chart time and your experience with the currency pair that will make the difference. As cj said, they can do only 1 level, or they can do a few, and they can also hide their tracks together with the central bank intervention.

Like us, their aim is to make money, not pips, so they will do what is necessary

[Kruspe]

I look at today´s chart. There was a nice pattern at GBPCHF... I attach a chart with some description

[Pueo]

Haven't heard from the Captain this week, so I assume he's out enjoying the spoils of his successful pillaging of the Fox's den. So I want to ask my fellow shipmates about M (and W) patterns. Are there ways they need (or should) look?

For example; should the top of the M be;
a) almost even
b) sloping down
c) sloping up
d) doesn't matter

Here is an M who's top is sloping up. I don't like seeing high highs when looking for a reverse, so I'm thinking I should pass. Thoughts on this and in general?

The same question I assume applies for W's in reverse. Any one's input is appreciated.

valid_M.png

It's an interesting chart you show because you can't see enough of the price action. For me there's not enough bars there to easily make a decision. Where is the potential M/W happening? (ex: what is to the left of the screen), which level are you on, are you in the middle of a range, did you just take out an important high/low? Which timeframe is it on and how do the others look? I like to also check for divergence using RSI / TDI as a probability enhancer if I'm on the fence.

Those railroad tracks are nice, so if I didn't find any reasons not to take the trade, I would likely enter for a scalp after the second railroad and if I felt like it was a bit iffy, I would take 1/2 or more profits at the same size as my risk (top of the bar) and then bring stop to break even. If that is a 15 minute chart though, I need to see what is my spread before going for a scalp.

[f451]

Haven't heard from the Captain this week, so I assume he's out enjoying the spoils of his successful pillaging of the Fox's den. So I want to ask my fellow shipmates about M (and W) patterns. Are there ways they need (or should) look?

For example; should the top of the M be;
a) almost even
b) sloping down
c) sloping up
d) doesn't matter

Here is an M who's top is sloping up. I don't like seeing high highs when looking for a reverse, so I'm thinking I should pass. Thoughts on this and in general?

The same question I assume applies for W's in reverse. Any one's input is appreciated.

valid_M.png

The second leg of an M or W doesn't have to be the same level, higher or lower for it to be valid.

A better thing to watch on the second leg is the close, and how the spread behaves around the price level of the first leg hi/low. However if is higher or lower it will tell you something. For an M a higher second leg shows Foxy still need to trap more traders into the wrong side of his trades - he is still building the position, or needs more liquidity to start the move. With a lower second leg on an M, the reference point is probably NOT the first leg of the M, but rather the asian range (a consolidation range prior to the 2nd leg) - Foxy got what he needed by inducing the breakout traders to go the wrong way.

If in doubt, check the length of the pins, the size of the second bar in the RRT on the first leg, and the spread as price approaches the price level of the 1st leg. If the spread isn't being messed with, be more wary - foxy may be going lower or higher before reversing.

[f451]

... don't trade M or W patterns against the move from the peak.

f451, can you explain what you mean in the last sentence please. I'm still trying to get my head around this - unsuccessfully so far!

Thanks
Chris

Take a 4HR or 1HR chart and find the most recent higher high (if the chart is in a down trend), or most recent lower low (if the chart is in an uptrend). From that point the trend reversed. That swing point is the peak high or low. CJ calls this level 3, because this is where the level count resets (back to 1) as the trend changes.

Once you've spotted this peak level, you can look for three pushes (over three days), with each major push being a level.

When you're first learning to trade this way, it's safest to take M patterns short from a peak high, and W patterns long from peak low.

I'll post a marked up chart later on.

[Kruspe]

btw the same pattern on the low.. what a coincidence, right

[f451]

Chart_GBP_CHF_15 Mins_F451.png

Ha, I had just marked up your chart to show the option to go long! - nice analysis BTW Kruspe.