10.4 A Complete System

[nicoacademia]

80 pip spike down snap dragon on GBPJPY.

[Chris]

Damn, I set my pending last night before I went to bed and now woke up to not a pretty sight. Oh well there is always next week. Could have saved my self If I could have been up to baby sit the positions.

[nicoacademia]

remember the DXY chart i posted. DXY now has the momentum to continue.
big NFP miss. insane below low estimate even.

but point is there's a news headline to tag with the price move.

its not so much the news but is it big enough to tag with the price move.

[cmeade2]

Bob

I saw all of the potential 10.4 setups noted by you and others. From my perspective, some of them hit suitable entry points last night, but I didn't take them because of the NFP.

Anyway, almost all of the possible 10.4 trades are way under water now, after the data.

That said, my question to you is what were your pending order points for these trades (and why weren't you in already as Chris was above)?

Thanks

cmeade2

Bob, Captain Jack and other 10,4 ers,
10.4 trade the retracements using RSI with pivots providing entry and exits with additional exits with AO trade only in direction of 240 with strong confirmed trend... clearly the last 3 words here is where discretion can enter.
I understand that too many filters can destroy a system ...done that been there etc This is clearly not my intention.

Anyway what if any are the group using as useful Filters that others should research/use to eliminate pairs/trades that don't comply and or often fail with 10.4?

In the posts I have seen comments by yourself and others as well as myself
1. 50 LWMA additional confirmation if below or above 240
2. 600 EMA equiv . 100EMA position if PA between 240 and 600 avoid
3. Use slope strength D1 and take top 3 and bottom 3 strongest and weakest on daily
4 Avoid certain pairs that don't trend and or are strongly influnenced by short term gov. action e.g. swissy.

In addition to the above, major S&R needs to be considered - identify horizontal, big numbers, obvious TLs ...do these impact on potential trades if they do in a positive way don't filter if in a negative way filter trade/pair.

Jonathan

I use 240 line and RSI 2 for my trade unless I have a compelling reason not too. JPY was the exception this week. I personally think NFP is over rated and have never really found it to be as dynamic as people claim. I have not problems following my system because the odds are in your favor that DT or UT will continue and the news will support these reentries back into their trends. If they dont your SL is not that far away so you take some hits. However if they do go back into the trend like 10.4 is telling you, you have a high reward trade with low risk. I am not shying away from the signals tonight and am taking the trades. See you in a couple of hours. My trades are set and I am going to watch a movie and come back in a couple of hours. I will have multiple winners or some single losers or no entrances. That is how the system works. When you are right you are well rewarded, if you are wrong take the single hit and move on. That is what makes this system more dynamic than any other system on the market. That is what helps you beat the odds. I have my pendings loaded and ready to go. All 17 of them. If price goes my way, money in the bank. If not some will take and I will have a handful of losers. Sooner or later some of you will get this.

[slowkey]

Well NFP was the biggest miss since Dec 2009. They totally got this one wrong. Canada got hit with bad numbers too. The EUR seems to be hanging around the 1.3000. Only got out of the EURUSD and will see if it moves back below the 240. All my other trades should weather this fine.

[Jonathan2FI]

Bob,
Thanks for the detailed reply including philosophy ..I believe I get it. Stop looking for more filters and use as is 240, RSI - yes if there are "compelling reasons" from fundamental trading logic not to take the trade then don't, otherwise trust that the wins will be more than the losses and the SLs give the trade enough breathing space - small lots and money management. Plus review and regular skilled intervention that may include killing trades before SLs. And if you make 5 % at begining of week and give back 1 or 2 % at end of week don't look for filters to eliminate all end of week trades either accept the ups and downs or get out at your target weekly profit or don't trade at all.
Again I appreciate the system and the coaching to all...like most students.... some occasionally need telling more than once.
Jonathan

[cmeade2]

OK here's a good example of one of the bombed out 10.4 trades from this morning. For the EurAud the RSI(2) was pretty flat and very high. Then the price came down through the WMR1 and touched the MA 5 shift 1. In previous weeks, this would have been a great entry for a short, but obviously not today.

Is the fact that the price is above the WP a warning sign? That is no entry until you cross below the WP.

Thanks

cmeade2

[cmeade2]

OK here's another good example (EurNzd). The primary difference here however is that the price is below the WP and there seem to be good entries, which obviously didn't work out.

What's the right way to read this chart

cmeade2

[nicoacademia]

something fishy at these highs GBPJPY EURJPY.

[TraderDesk]

OK here's another good example (EurNzd). The primary difference here however is that the price is below the WP and there seem to be good entries, which obviously didn't work out.

What's the right way to read this chart

cmeade2

Hi cmeade2,

In my case I had the EUR/NZD setup shown as a sell. I had a sellstop at around 1.5259 IF price action went back down. I also opened one in the morning near the WP but I had a hard stop a bit higher then that. You could also had a S/L at the 240ma as well but in these conditions I decided to be at the action and close out quickly if needed which I did...

I don't trade 10.4 with specific rules in granite but more as a guideline and use my trading experience to pull the trigger... In 10.4 I do respect the 240ma very much and I also like the STO indi (other traders use the RSI or both)...

But that is me and my interpretation of 10.4...