10.4 A Complete System

[nanningbob]

The drop in CHF/JPY is scary.

Until the big boys enter their second level trades and then it will shoot back up again. I am going to guess that Monday prices will gap down, the banks will run all their JPY buys first and then the big boys will start jumping in with their 2nd entrances. May not happen right away but they will reenter when they think this sell off ends.

[kwanann]

The drop in CHF/JPY is scary.

Actually other than usdjpy, audjpy and nzdjpy, eurjpy, gbpjpy and chfjpy have always been a tad more dramatic. You stand to win more as well as lose more with those pairs

[grimweasel]

I wouldn't be betting against this Shooting Star (Pin bar) on USDYEN weekly. I think the 100 level had been rejected here...

[Anonymous]

I wouldn't be betting against this Shooting Star (Pin bar) on USDYEN weekly. I think the 100 level had been rejected here...

More fall expected in USDJPY when the market opens. Support at 96.75. I will be looking for buy signals from there.

[zentauro67]

You can never recover the stone after the throw... Yesterday I read some crazy words. A japanese debt expert said USDJPY could get 250 (WTF!)

[fx800]

You can never recover the stone after the throw... Yesterday I read some crazy words. A japanese debt expert said USDJPY could get 250 (WTF!)

Do you mean 1 usd = 250 yen ?

He must be really crazy. Can't even get past 100 yen.

[zentauro67]

You can never recover the stone after the throw... Yesterday I read some crazy words. A japanese debt expert said USDJPY could get 250 (WTF!)

Do you mean 1 usd = 250 yen ?

He must be really crazy. Can't even get past 100 yen.

That could lead to the debt apocalypse long predicted by Kyle Bass, who heads Hayman Advisors, a Dallas investment firm that scored big when the subprime-mortgage market collapsed during the financial crisis. Bass is playing Japan via cheap out-of-the-money options that likely would benefit from sharply higher rates and a weaker yen.

Bass sees these trends culminating in a debt crisis that eclipses past crises in Argentina and the euro zone. He has said that he has no timetable for a potential Japanese financial crisis, but if one occurs, the "yen could move north of 250" to the dollar and rates could get "into the teens."

"It's the most obvious scenario of my adult life," he has said. "The question is when."

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB500 ... rticle%3D1

Should we distrust his words because he is interested in the depreciation of the yen, or give him more credit because he is betting his money on it?

[grimweasel]

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicd ... debt-guide

enough said. Japan is a debt bomb waiting to explode!

[Chris]

From high to low, the closing prices of the XXXJPY pairs over the final 30 hours of last week, was between 185 pips (USDJPY) and 330 pips (GBPJPY) lower.

That represents fairly substantial buying of the YEN.

Will it continue on Monday?
Has all the low hanging fruit been picked?
Will the YEN sell this week or consolidate at this level before selling off as it did last Wednesday week 4th April. Or what?

Personally I am going back to 10.4 basics and I am going to be happy to just grind out my daily bread on the millstone of 10.4 setups.

We've had a great run the past 7 trading days or so ... let's keep our heads.

The market might be selling YEN ... yes indeed it did ... but the market is also irrational, and we have yet to be able to tell it what it should be doing.

10.4 comes about the closest I have ever been to "seeing" the next move.

there are 10.4 across the board on the JPY pairs. And I am already in these pairs from last week. Got my stops at the 240, would not be pleasant to see that, but I would imagine we should at least see a double top in these pairs. Maybe wishful thinking. We will see.

[nanningbob]

Nice gaps this morning. I set up my pending buys on JPY. I see some of you have been reading the news. JPY is a time bomb 230%+ debt to GDP ratio. What makes Japan different though is the money is borrowed from its own people, not financed by other foreign banks. So they have been able to play this out much better than the Euro. Remember Cypress banks were a haven for foreigners, especially from Russia. From a historical point of view, I read that only one country has ever come back from a greater than 150% debt to GDP ratio. So their chances are not good, however they can survive by povertizing (you wont find this word in a dictionary, I just made it up so put your translators away) their own people. The people on the hook are the retirees or soon to be retirees whose portfolio is based on govt. bonds. This is why the BOJ is now buying 70% of all the bonds so they can pay their people back. Problem is their savings is now going to devalue. Anyway short term and always remember this rule, it is the one rule of Forex I have found to be 100% true, "What goes up must come down and what goes down must come up" The long run for JPY is it is going down and going down by design. Just look for these Dips/Rallies and get back in. I am also doing this with the Euro but its dips/rallies are going to be stronger than the JPY so you must be more careful there.