10.4 A Complete System

[nanningbob]

To those that survived this mornings blood bath, you have buys and sells all over the place. Pick and choose and remember it is Monday, we know we dont have big moves on Monday. Right??

*looks at the pip move from GMT+0 opening to the low of the day*

I was expecting a retrace but not this. Even gold is below 1500 now. JPY bond are up. Who would want to buy a 30 year bond anyway? Some things about economics I dont understand. However, what has changed? Has the fundamentals behind JPY changed? NO. Other currencies though are shifting around and I dont know quite what to expect from them. Almost all my trades will go into the JPY back into its trend. The other pairs that have jumped around I will let them settle.

[nicoacademia]

i dont think the 30yr bid is about economics. could most likely be the *invisible hand*
i think fundy wise the picture is still the same.
uncertainty politically. dollar strength(vis a vis gold weakness). JPY weakness. euro/cypress/etc.

but alot of price wise positioning going on.
John Paulson may puke just like Geoge Soros once did in Oct 21st 1987 to the tune of 800million.

[Ingot54]

Why do I try? May be I would not care if I could tell how they were going to manipulate, unfortunately I do not have unlimited reserves of cash like the big banks. Why do I try?

Chris - I made a decision on Friday to keep out of the markets until stability returns.

We are attempting to trade a lottery!

We are technical traders with a sound Fundamental (economics-driven) base. It's it the single best approach, and 10.4 will float your boat ... eventually.

But ... what we have here is not the "normal" market. That's why I am standing aside until I see the setups become stable and more reliable once again. It may be gone forever - or it may return tomorrow.

The world is in uncharted water. Oil up $8.50 then down $9 all in 30 days! Crazy ... this is not economics.
Gold: Down $180 in 3 weeks ... what is that?
What happened to the debt-driven depreciation of USD ---> appreciation of Gold?
Was it all conjecture to 'explain the markets" ?

Look at the currencies today/Thursday/Friday ... we thought the YEN was getting sold ... but it is getting bought. Look at the FIBONACCI Retracement Tool on all your daily charts - 61.8's everywhere ... but will they hold? Is the buying over?

It boils down to this: NO ONE knows what will happen. I am betting on Hyperinflation ... but I think I am going to be sent to the corner for that view!
EVERY government wants now to be "debt-managable" ... but they can't achieve it.

Gone is the "good-debt-bad-debt" glib speaking politician/central banker - they are all on the "bad-debt" train now, and just want to get OFF.

The piper is calling the tune now ... and we are beginning to see the chaos of politicians panicking ... in the 1770's they would all be hanged or beheaded for treason!

The best we can do is understand that we do NOT understand, and be content to use 10.4/10.5 to take small bites ... but not until stability returns.

Just my view, and that will be my approach - regardless of how many pips I "miss out on" ... it does not matter.

We do NOT have to trade. I am experienced, but not silly ...I think

[Ingot54]

what the hell caused this excitement. this is not helping? NZD is tanking

The NZDJPY is down over 320 pips since last Thursday's peak.

For the NZD to be sold, the JPY has to be bought.

I think we might be focusing too much on the BOJ and their antics.
Yes - they did sell the YEN - big time - but there has been a retrace of that, and we can only wait until the next time they sell YEN (ie when they buy the crosses).

Never fall in love with an idea - especially in trading.

Trade the markets ... that is the only insurance there is.

[Ingot54]

Ya I am trying to hang on too, unfortunately I am in 2 or 3 levels on some of these pairs. We kind of through the 10.4 rules out the window with the macro economic news and now I am paying for it. It might just be another hard lesson for me. I think I may have over extended my account I am currently down 21%, about everything I have made this year. Sorry to complain a little here. I am not blaming 10.4, I think it is a great system, it just I broke the rules with the JPY stuff.

Chris - I got "owned" too mate - I am not ashamed to say I believed the sell-the-YEN story ... but I went to work and left my account open, and got cleaned. The music stopped and I was left without a chair!

That's why I am not trading until this thing stabilises.

I can rebuild my account, but the only one smiling today is my broker. I over-traded - simple as that, and because I was unable to access my account for 14 hours, I bled dry.

I really hope I was the only one on the thread that got cleaned here.

[nicoacademia]

just ask John Paulson what's the price of gold now. i hope he has margin. 38.2% fib on the monthlys is the first n only real support.

[Baluda]

A new version of CurrencySlopeStrength, v1.0.5 can be found in post 1 of this thread.

Main issue is that symbols the broker does not offer are now excluded from all calculations. This results in more accurate values.

GlobalMarketTrend, screen I.png

Also please check the new 'GlobalMarketTrend' indicator in the same post. This one combines all CSS' from all currencies into one value. It indicates the global trend, the higher the value, the more currencies are trending.

Enjoy,

Paul

[Davide24]

To those that survived this mornings blood bath, you have buys and sells all over the place. Pick and choose and remember it is Monday, we know we dont have big moves on Monday. Right??

*looks at the pip move from GMT+0 opening to the low of the day*

I was expecting a retrace but not this. Even gold is below 1500 now. JPY bond are up. Who would want to buy a 30 year bond anyway? Some things about economics I dont understand. However, what has changed? Has the fundamentals behind JPY changed? NO. Other currencies though are shifting around and I dont know quite what to expect from them. Almost all my trades will go into the JPY back into its trend. The other pairs that have jumped around I will let them settle.

Gents, I kindly advised (last Friday see page 323) to be careful before going long xxxjpy..and to sell gold instead...may be my explanation was too technical (JGB yields, Japanese Lifers, etc I'm an macro FX hedge fund guy...) but the thing was a lot of option jpy bullish structures went through the market last Friday so buying xxxjpy was like fighting against smart money....now these option strategies will be unwound soon and that profit taking would help xxxjpy to go higher again...by all means the trend is up big time....
Congratulations Bob for this smart strategy...you deserve a seat in our desk

[mrelectron]

<snip>
Gents, I kindly advised .....
</snip>

That's funny David, but I think I needed something like a RED ALERT sticker on your post. But you have my attention now.

[Ingot54]

Guys be careful! gravity always wins! everyone has gone long xxxjpy in anticipation of the big outflow from JGBs into risky assets...but the thing is JGB yields continue to rise (in anticipation pf the nuclear QE) so the incentive for japanese institutions (Lifers, etc..) to rotate into foreign assets drops meaningfully...so beware an air pocket and bigger correction lies ahead first...

gold XAU is the alternative jpy, with potentially larger losses ahead...

Wise words indeed, Davide24.

I am giving them more weight today

You can have a seat at my desk