The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Kruspe]

USD/CAD, it looks like they accumulate a lot of positions before a REAL stronger move will start.

[odellcash]

What do you guys think about Gbp/Jpy ? (and all other JPY pairs btw).
Are the levels correct ?

I was thinking the same thing. But we know now that this was incorrect. I keep making this same mistake. I see what appears to be all of the signs

1. Low end of ADR
2. Pin bars and RRTs
3. 3 Levels at lower time frames (obviously misinterpreted)

Look at EURJPY

follow_trend1.png

follow_trend2.png

I've had this happen to me on other pairs as well. It seems to be a ongoing theme for me.

My take is to not trust Lower time frame reversals signs unless 4H and D1 agree.

True reversals usually come after several days or weeks of a trend. If you follow the trend, you will be correct every time but once. (when it does finally reverse)

Incorrectly predicting a reversal(s) sets you up to be wrong over and over.

Sharing my mistakes so hopefully others may benefit.

[kwanann]

For all who are waiting for yen to go up, you will have to wait a while.

This is simply history repeating itself, why? Look at the monthly chart for the past few months and you will know this is the peak and the only way now is down.

Why I know? I.ve been following yen closely since dec. got burned and benefitted from it, and I more or less have a gut feel for what is going to happen

I was in the exact same situation as most of you guys last month this time. If you have the funds for it to drop at least 600pips, hold till the first week of next month and you should be out at least at BE.

Will I be buying yen? Not as a long term trade, the trend is that it will go up, no point shooting myself buying it. Possible buy as intraday trade, yes definitely but with tight SL and BE set

For those that have been trading for a while, you will remember the BOJ intervention every wed that comes as a boom to all who are waiting, this stinks of that except now they can only do it at the beginning of every month.

Myself and edi both mentioned, d1 charts give you the best confirmation, and if d1, h1 and m15 align, then you are in for a treat most of the time

For now though, tread carefully with yen, these are fundamentals in action, mixed with SH, together they can prove to be a troublesome combo

[bernard]

I have an ECN live account with FxOpen.
Observing what they are doing to me, I don't believe I can ever be profitable, naked trading or dressed!
I use the attached script for instant sells of lot size 0.5, no SL and no TP.
Upon execution of EURUSD sell, I am instantly minus $50.
In the absence of any news and spikes this morning, this means that there was an slippage of 10 pips.
I am not much of a coder, but I can see that the script has a slippage of 3 max.
I don't want to open a trade if the slippage is over the set limit.
Can some one please help?
Thanks
Bernard

Hi Bernard, with .5 lots, you just needed it to go 10pips against you to have a dd of 50. Depending on when you trade, the spread can be up to 2pips. So you just need it to move against you 6pips to have a dd of 50$.

Why 6pips? Say the spread is 2pips. When you take the order you automatically lose 2pips. Then there is the other 2pips from closing the order (your broker lives off this and commission)

6pips for eurusd is nothing. If you cannot stomach such dd, look like 1% per 100$ lot size.

For reference, trading 1 full lot, you can easily be in an immediate dd of 100$ just by opening the trade. Exotic pairs like USDsek have it even worse, you can be in a dd of 200 or more

Kwanann,

You did not get the point and apparently, you started writing before even reading the post.
When working with an ECN broker, your account gets debited for 4 reasons
1- the commission
2- the spread
3- slippage
4- Drawdown (DD) if your trade is a loser.

I was just talking about item #3= slippage ONLY.
10 pips of slippage for EURUSD when there are no news or spikes, is way way too high and that was the point of my post.
If you look at the EA codes by Steve or Paul, they set the slippage at 3 by default.
I was hoping some one could look at the script code and see why it opens the trade although the slippage is beyond its set limit.
Bernard

[kwanann]

I have an ECN live account with FxOpen.
Observing what they are doing to me, I don't believe I can ever be profitable, naked trading or dressed!
I use the attached script for instant sells of lot size 0.5, no SL and no TP.
Upon execution of EURUSD sell, I am instantly minus $50.
In the absence of any news and spikes this morning, this means that there was an slippage of 10 pips.
I am not much of a coder, but I can see that the script has a slippage of 3 max.
I don't want to open a trade if the slippage is over the set limit.
Can some one please help?
Thanks
Bernard

Hi Bernard, with .5 lots, you just needed it to go 10pips against you to have a dd of 50. Depending on when you trade, the spread can be up to 2pips. So you just need it to move against you 6pips to have a dd of 50$.

Why 6pips? Say the spread is 2pips. When you take the order you automatically lose 2pips. Then there is the other 2pips from closing the order (your broker lives off this and commission)

6pips for eurusd is nothing. If you cannot stomach such dd, look like 1% per 100$ lot size.

For reference, trading 1 full lot, you can easily be in an immediate dd of 100$ just by opening the trade. Exotic pairs like USDsek have it even worse, you can be in a dd of 200 or more

Kwanann,

You did not get the point and apparently, you started writing before even reading the post.
When working with an ECN broker, your account gets debited for 4 reasons
1- the commission
2- the spread
3- slippage
4- Drawdown (DD) if your trade is a loser.

I was just talking about item #3= slippage ONLY.
10 pips of slippage for EURUSD when there are no news or spikes, is way way too high and that was the point of my post.
If you look at the EA codes by Steve or Paul, they set the slippage at 3 by default.
I was hoping some one could look at the script code and see why it opens the trade although the slippage is beyond its set limit.
Bernard

Bernard,

Do you have a screenshot for this? Need the journal section to see the actual placed trade and the requested trade.

Empty4 scripted slippage works and is enforced, cannot be the case that you put in a buy lot for 1.000 and you get a 1.1 lot, if it's too far it would have been rejected

[bernard]

Kwanann,

Here is the screenshot of the trade.
From where I executed the script till where the ordered was filled was 10 pips.

Best,
bernard

[bernard]

W forming on Gold H1.

[bernard]

W forming on Gold H1.

Haha i'm off gold already, got burned bad :'( now just sticking to my fav yen pairs

Kwanann,
Gold is the most manipulated commodity in the world.
Those who remember 80s, gold exploded to $800 and then back to $300.
Sorry that the Londoners got you.

Bernard

[bernard]

Hi Bernard,

This is not slippage. No matter what your position should be in the bar not outside the bar. You might want to raise this up with fxopen

Thank you Kwanann for your advice.
I had a similar case two days ago with lot size 2.
FxOpen responded:
Please be advised,

One of our liquidity providers, a well known and respceted entity, has recently experienced some issues. Your orders have been affected by that malfunction. We will further investigate into this event. Their services are suspended at the moment until fully resolved.

I get $250.00 refunded.
Time to skin some bastard Foxes again:D
Bernard

[ernest02]

The misadventures of a rooky Fox hunter! This time the Fox got me good and solid. Thought he was ready to turn and be satisfied with his meal, but he was still hungry! Ouch!
But I will not give up!