10.4 A Complete System

[Ingot54]

I began going from line to line taking profit and entering. 10.4 set up with daily S area confirmed. Next line up I set my pendings and took profit at the next line. Nothing fancy or big. 1 level at a time while I work my way through this move.

I noticed the weekly lines are closer together that today's daily lines, which do you use?

I have been using both depending on the pair being traded. It looks llke the rebound is real for now but we will see if it breaks WS1. The good news is they have broken the daily pivot and that is a good sign.

Bob - I am pleased to see you trading out of this mess.

Facts are I am not up to that. But your posting gives me the confidence that it is at least possible.

While I am sitting on my hands, the XXXJPY crosses are rallying. But I am prepared to let them stand on their heads and do an Irish Jig ... I do not trust this market.

The only thing I see is that the BOJ has reentered the market selling YEN. But for how long. The other G20 nations are NOT going to stand by and allow their major trading partner to dilute their holdings of YEN. The evidence that this is the BOJ selling YEN, is that the crosses are ALL moving up IN UNISON.

Can you imagine the uproar if this was China weakening the RMB/Yuan?
We would have WWIII next week or sooner.

Similarly, scale it back a notch - this is Japan, not China ... so no war next week ...
But we WILL see more violent volatility erupt in the crosses ... then the CHF crosses ... then USD,GBP,EUR etc until they are all crazily buying/selling to weaken themselves relative to each other.

The issue is debt.
The mechanism is currency weakening.
The result is chaos.
The outcome is serious, unless countries settle down and acknowledge and bear responsibility for their debt, or default outright, or ... *

Remember when Henry Paulsen was moaning about China maintaining a weak RMB?
How many trips to China did he make to get the Chinese to strengthen the YUAN?
This is just the same - currency wars alright ... coming to a Empty4 near you

[TraderDesk]

For myself I love volatility in the market.... the more pulling and pushing between the big players the more we as traders can make money...

[kwanann]

Stagnating on most yen pairs, I.m out and waiting for the next retrace

[liberty55]

Thank you at all, I took the time to read all the Bob booklet, installed the indi,and scan the chart to see and understand how the system work...
Now I would like to understand how we can loss around 30% if each time , when the market hit an order yo put at BE the fisrt one???
If I used exclusively the 4hrs setup ( the 10.4 v5.0), may be I am wrong but no problem... if I put some buy order with a stop loss ( 0.5%-1.0 or what you are confortable with) the market never take me.
the problem come when we swith to 1hr chart after we see thw good signal on the 4hrs and the use of the buylimit... do you see the reaction of the market arounf the daily pivot... he take some time to return at the initial condition ( up tenrd or down trend) may be it is the mean fact without understanding all the big players do or did

very gooc system for the following trend and the MM is fantasic...

[liberty55]

errror , if I used the original set up 4hrs....

[snailbeard]

10.4 and the 1 Hour CSS (Currency Strength Indicator)

Yesterday, I escaped lightly because I was looking at the H1 CSS (which I hacked from the original D1 (by Paul Geirnaerdt)) and I saw many reversals of strength (when compared to D1). I should have posted a snap shot yesterday which clearly showed the reversals, but you can tell from the shape of the lines that something coordinated was happening - normally these lines all criss-cross.

Although, I am trying to follow 10.4 in principal - it often results in triggered pending orders which then reverse to SL. However, combining 10.4, H1 CSS along with what I have learn't from CJ's thread helped keep me out of the worst and sometimes get me an entry at where the SL would have been triggered!

[mjws00]

Hopefully you boys in drawdown got most of your funds back. Nice 4 Level 400 pip trades in JPY longs. No deep pullbacks to take you out if you stacked them. Perfect 10.4. Retrace... return to the trend entries. Someone show stock 10.4 with 1600 pips today on one Yen pair.

I was exhausted and needed sleep.

For all the volatility, these yen moves were very very nice from a technical standpoint. We stopped DEAD on WS3. On USDJPY there is 61% fib confluence. Plus 240. Return to trend move is back to the 50% fib, and the little patch of sideways from yesterday. Perfect pin at the bottom. EJ over cooked it a bit, but UJ, GJ, sweet. Seriously pretty charts.

We are traders and should LOVE this volatility. Stock 10.4 gets todays move, plus the HUGE run up. Conservatives playing vanilla should have a 1% loss with about 20% gains. Nothing to fear here boys. Honestly the only strategy, I'd let a bot help me with and possibly beat my manual returns.

We may have an awesome range here we can play for a while. 800 pips of room is a lot of room to swing top to bottom.

Enjoy. These kinds of moves haven't been around for a while.

Mike

[Chris]

What do you think trend resumption in progress, or just a short term rally.

I have used this rally to lighten my load of JPY.
I hope it will rocket back to the top, but if it does not, I will be a little better off then before.
I can alway re-enter my trade right.

Chris

I am not trading this - there is no need to ... no reason to trade it.
The moves are still playing out.



http://youtu.be/qJ6-scNU28I

Nice video clip, what a bunch of BS. Sadly this is the crazy world we live in. I love the question, "is gold money?" "If it's not money then why do banks hold gold?"
I got to install those stoch, I like the way they work. I asked the above question mainly because of wishful thinking, cause I am still holding some YEN trades from last week. I have reduced the size a little with this last rally and was able to get back some of my loses, not all of it. But I think you are right, we need to let the dust settle here and get a better picture of what is going on. But we need to remember the 2 year plan laid out by the BOJ. I think this last move was to shake out the weak hands and I think it did a pretty good job of that.
Great analysis, I always look forward to hearing what everyone on the board has to say.

[Ingot54]

Interesting Bloomie article from Caroline Baum regarding BOJ getting "told" by the US Fed to back off devaluing the YEN!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-1 ... we-do.html

Note the words " ... refrain from competitive devaluation and targeting its exchange rate for competitive purposes."

Hahahaha ... and, pray tell ... what is it that the US Fed has been doing with their $85billion/month bond purchase programme???

Ummm ... pot ... kettle ... black?

Caroline concludes with: " I find it puzzling that the U.S. can blame Japan for doing what it's been telling Japan to do and, at the same time, challenge its choice of medicine."

Yeah. Me too. This explains the YEN purchases that wiped a few accounts here. And it confirms the currency war is firmly on the agenda.

Score:

China - been told by the US to stop weakening the RMB.
Japan - been told by the US to stop weakening the YEN
Europe ... next
Britain ... next

Gosh - any wonder the US can soon count its friends on the fingers of one hand - they are using the other to show 2 fingers to the rest of the world!

Sorry - couldn't help that, but after the weekend I've had, I thought it justified to find a scapegoat for my trading failings

[Chris]

Note: CHF (SNB) has already gone on record, and taken action to confirm their words ... that they will NOT tolerate a CHF stronger than EURCHF 1.20. There will be limits on the crosses too. (see the correction of 9th August 2011)

Just my views ... could be wrong.

Ya i remember this. I got a little piece of that action when I saw the CHF move a 1000 ticks in one day, it was crazy.