10.4 A Complete System

[IanV]

That's not an island reversal in the first place...please look at the attached BBG weekly chart...I hardly see any gap or an island for that matter...[/quote]

It's still in the making.
When he says Sting, I think what he means is MM's are going to generate a JPY gap this weekend.
Anyway what do I know.

[Pipstubborn]

Gertje, Congratulations. Can you ilustrate me? Do you TP at 2-3 lines of the daily pivots? or go line by line on the H1?
Thanks for your help

[Davide24]

That's not an island reversal in the first place...please look at the attached BBG weekly chart...I hardly see any gap or an island for that matter...

It's still in the making.
When he says Sting, I think what he means is MM's are going to generate a JPY gap this weekend.
Anyway what do I know.[/quote]


potentially if G20 releases an aggressive communique criticizing japan nuclear monetary easing...we might see a gap and violent yen upmove...but then it would turns to a great xxxjpy buying opportunity

[nanningbob]

Now I see SNB is changing philosophy concerning its relationship with the EURO. That is huge news and another Macro-economic change. If they do this then there is a currency that is willing to appreciate and I now know where to go trade. That one news story is buried amongst a lot of commentary trash but when you have done this you get to see these stories and their importance on Forex. The rest is short term micro economics and doesnt mean anything. Look for CHF to appreciate.

Bob - I have searched high, low and sideways for any hint that the SNB may be easing their ceiling on EURCHF at 1.20.

Even the most recent news releases indicate that they will "strenuously" defend the level.

Could you please point to a source for me? This is too important to slip by, and we may be misinterpreting the intention.

Nothing here: http://www.snb.ch/en/ifor/media/id/media_speeches

The consequences of being long CHF at the "wrong" time can be devastating.

It is just a one sentence news blurb. I dont keep track of my reading. I just read.

[nanningbob]

That's not an island reversal in the first place...please look at the attached BBG weekly chart...I hardly see any gap or an island for that matter...

It's still in the making.
When he says Sting, I think what he means is MM's are going to generate a JPY gap this weekend.
Anyway what do I know.

potentially if G20 releases an aggressive communique criticizing japan nuclear monetary easing...we might see a gap and violent yen upmove...but then it would turns to a great xxxjpy buying opportunity[/quote]

Whatever G20 says will be short term move. It is just another temp news story. Whatever they say will not change a basic fundamental. There will always be dips and rallies in a trend, then back to business as usual. They key is having MM to handle what ever happens. The CSS 4H tells the story for now. Everything is bunched up and looking for direction.

[nanningbob]

CSS daily which gives you a longer term view shows Euro currencies are up along with nzd and aud and jpy are down. The curious thing is aud and nzd are blood brothers who follow each other around. It is not normal for them to be on separate curves. How do I read that, well it means the market is screwed up. Until Euro bad news hits again, and it may well soon, it will go up. We may see a disconnect of the Euro from the CHF this time around. Be interesting to see if the pound follows the CHF or the Euro. Either way we will know by following CSS. But JPY weakness is here to stay and keeping your account from being overly committed to it is the best strategy. I believe most of their bond buying will be at the beginning of the month so that is where to expect most of the action with the rest of the month people with their indicators trying to show how JPY going to reverse. When the govt. bond buying program ends then JPY will reverse.

[nanningbob]

I am having problems with people filling my email and PM box with questions. I simply dont have time to respond to all these notes. I am going to have to ignore them; simply cant write here, my normal email, and then everyone else's requests plus my daily work load. Besides there are people here that can answer most of the questions.

[nanningbob]

Bank of Japan policy board member Ryuzo Miyao acknowledged on Thursday that there are risks associated with the central bank’s expanded quantitative easing, but that the policy is necessary to end 15 years of nagging deflation.

Markets could become unstable due to worries about some investors taking excessive risks, Miyao said. Concerns could also rise about the risks the BOJ is taking by expanding its balance sheet and how it will unwind monetary policy, he said.

Still, Miyao said that he felt the BOJ had taken all necessary steps needed to meet its 2% inflation goal and that he would support the BOJ’s more aggressive monetary policy as long as the benefits outweighed the risks.

“I personally feel that the steps we have taken are necessary to meet our price target at the earliest possible moment,” Miyao said, according to the text of a speech he gave in Gifu, which is in central Japan.

“Considering that Japan has been in deflation for such a long time, even if there are some risks, I will support our policies as long as the benefits outweigh the costs.”

The BOJ stunned global financial markets earlier this month by committing to open-ended asset buying to nearly double the monetary base to 270 trillion yen ($2.71 trillion) by the end of 2014, prescribing this shock therapy to end two decades of stagnation and achieve 2% inflation.

[Chris]

I am not much of an economist can someone tell me why having a strong YEN is bad and why deflation is bad?

[Breakdancer]

I am not either but a strong yen is bad for their exports making them more expensive for the other countries, i.e. less competitive.
If there is deflation, you postpone your purchases on the belief the prices will be lower tomorrow than today; if everybody do the same it causes a decrease in economic activity. Hope to be right.