Gday Mark 2

[fx800]

One expensive lesson learned today. Price never go up in straight lines. It may indeed be true that yen weakness will run for months, but retracements will invariable happen. The steeper the rise, the steeper the retracement. We are only retracing to 38.2 fib. level so far and many yen pairs have already plunged 400 to 500 pips.

[SteveHopwood]

One expensive lesson learned today. Price never go up in straight lines. It may indeed be true that yen weakness will run for months, but retracements will invariable happen. The steeper the rise, the steeper the retracement. We are only retracing to 38.2 fib. level so far and many yen pairs have already plunged 400 to 500 pips.

Yup, including those I bought on Friday. Oops. Great thing is, I can genuinely afford to blow this account should it happen - and that is a looooonnnnggggg way off so I am hanging on in there.

Mind, I am mighty glad it was not a $500,000 all-of-my-life-savings account trading something like 10 lot sizes.

[SteveHopwood]

I have updated my Shell EA user guide. This explains the inputs in my EA's, so if any of them in GDay confuse you, go to http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... f=5&t=1774 to download a copy.

[fx800]

One expensive lesson learned today. Price never go up in straight lines. It may indeed be true that yen weakness will run for months, but retracements will invariable happen. The steeper the rise, the steeper the retracement. We are only retracing to 38.2 fib. level so far and many yen pairs have already plunged 400 to 500 pips.

Yup, including those I bought on Friday. Oops. Great thing is, I can genuinely afford to blow this account should it happen - and that is a looooonnnnggggg way off so I am hanging on in there.

Mind, I am mighty glad it was not a $500,000 all-of-my-life-savings account trading something like 10 lot sizes.

Good on you, Steve. You have been rewarded by recovery during the night. Long may it continue. Hope the recovery is complete and you go on to making big profits in the next few months.

I have no stomach for big DD, and re-enter when the trading is less chaotic.

[fx800]

A certain degree of calm and order appears to have returned to the market. The Dow rose 150 points yesterday, so is risk on again and yen selling resumed.

Managed to pick up several hundred pips using NB 10.5, trading from line to line as Bob is doing. No using GDAY MK2 for now.

Only selling yen for the time being. Most pairs are near Daily R1, and consolidating, so waiting for retrace.

[fx800]

The "sell yen" band wagon is back on track again yesterday following a statement from the Japan finance minister that the G20 did not criticise BOJ policy of QE.

Next week, watch for the trend to continue. If you are not able to trade realtime, then setting up Gday MK2 H4 long only to catch any retracement. A more aggressive strategy is to use H1 time frame.

I do not think it is wise to use any lower time frame because of lesson learned recently. Of course, if you are able to trade realtime, then the lower time frames will give you earlier entry if the conditions are right. Watch Dow Jones to see whether it is risk on or risk off. Risk on = buy yen, and vice versa.


Yesterday was a good day for those selling yen. Managed to recover most of my losses from Monday.

Good luck and many green pips to all next week.

[SteveHopwood]

Yesterday was a good day for those selling yen. Managed to recover most of my losses from Monday.

Good luck and many green pips to all next week.

Well done. I have managed to close a couple of mine at a modest profit using mptm to trail the stop at 20 pips. DD came down by 75% - never ever got to an even remotely threatening stage, but I would rather be in DU than DD.

[Anonymous]

Yesterday was a good day for those selling yen. Managed to recover most of my losses from Monday.

Good luck and many green pips to all next week.

Well done. I have managed to close a couple of mine at a modest profit using mptm to trail the stop at 20 pips. DD came down by 75% - never ever got to an even remotely threatening stage, but I would rather be in DU than DD.

Very pleased to hear the good news, Steve. Next week is a bit tricky for the yen. Macro says yen will weaken further, but stock indices suggest more risk off to come. Both FTSE and Dow Jones have dropped below 240MA and the FTSE is making lower highs and lower lows.

So, I would watch carefully before jumping in hook, line and sinker this time. Learned a hard lesson last week. The H4 stochs for yen pairs are still falling, so it is not a straight forward sell yen scenario. There may be more retrace before resumption of trend. But if the H4 stochs becomes oversold and turns upward, particularly if bouncing off a pivot, then the entry would have been safer. A more aggressive approach would be to use H1 stochs but use a fairly tight stop.

I have done fairly well trading manually using a modified NB10.4, using H4 stochs for pullback, but using daily pivots for pending orders. It is early days whether this is better than using weekly pivots for entry, but it worked very well last friday, so will persevere with it.

Anyway, good luck for next week, and may many more green pips rain on you.

peter

[Anonymous]

Next week is a bit tricky for the yen. Macro says yen will weaken further, but stock indices suggest more risk on to come. Both FTSE and Dow Jones have dropped below 240MA and the FTSE is making lower highs and lower lows.

I mentioned in the above post that there may be more risk off to come. There may be a salvation. With the weak yen and more cheap money from BOJ, the Nikkei had a breakout to the upside last friday. If we have a big rise in the Nikkei on Monday, this may pull up the other stock indices with it.

In case you have missed the following piece of fx takes for next week ....................
http://www.efxnews.com/story/18392/4-ta ... ahead-citi

[fx800]

G-20 Gives Japan Stimulus Green Light as Yen Extends Fall

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-2 ... ll-1-.html