The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[mjws00]

Heh. Consistent as hell. But life and business often gets in the way of my trading.

If you scour the forums on the internet for the guys that can truly kill it in real time. You will see almost all trade some combination of PA, SR. But most have come to that point after thousands of hours of screen time. So there is FEEL involved as well as pure price action. This isn't the easy road, but it is where those 1% that survive and make good money often land.

On FF read: redsword11 (hundreds and hundreds of real time kills) , James16, Dropped Onion, Orbital, traderathome (new to me, but good), gatorinla, cloggie, paythelimit.

Edi (swisscheese), Lio, Kruspe, Angat, Kwannan, Xriskmark, f451, Peuo, CJ, have put up hundreds of charts here. (Sorry if I missed some).

Unfortunately all superb traders eventually realize the huge time drag that posting is.

CJ, has added his unique viewpoint. And mind-blowing execution pushing a solid edge. The thread focuses on the simplest concept, M,W, pin. But there is another edge in the analysis of MM strategy and where and whom is being trapped to create liquidity for their plays.

These are the guys that get it done with and for the smart money, and they are very very good at their jobs. The transition to seeing that in real time on the hard right edge is brutal. In addition it is dynamic. Mauro puts it well when he says the MM coming in on shift, doesn't know whether he will be long or short that day. He gets an overview of where there is liquidity, stops, and volume and seizes opportunity as it presents.

Good luck.

Mike

[Reaper]

What's happening to this thread guys? There was a time when it was red hot and I could not keep up with the new posts/pages that were generated!

So then let's continue posting charts ...

USDCHF H1 trapping volume on the third level with lots of pins.

Gary

Not sure it is the 3rd level. I definitely see 2 levels. Today was a only a 55 point move. My gut says price will mess around for a day or two then push up to maybe retouch the high from the 14th March which would be a great manipulation point and potential nice short position if it gave us a pattern with nice trapping pins, however if it will play out like this, remains to be seen.

Gotta say could be totally wrong. Most of the time it might be better to trade what you see and not what you think will happen.

[seanyd]

Does anyone have any idea how CJ plots price up to 18 moves ahead , he said that he already has a map drawn out what he expects price to do and he is not far away most of the time. I am toying with the notion that like Elliott wave their are patterns inside patterns eg. if their is a 1 push move on the 4hr that would equal a 3 push move on the 15min stopping at all the support and resistance areas along the way , is every move comprised of 3 pushes or are patterns repeating them self`s all the time

3-4-2013 7-04-28 PM.png

or maybe the pattern is reversing and mirroring itself not exactly but close.

sorry pictures are not in order .

Any thoughts on how to plot price or am I losing the plot

[Reaper]

Does anyone have any idea how CJ plots price up to 18 moves ahead , he said that he already has a map drawn out what he expects price to do and he is not far away most of the time. I am toying with the notion that like Elliott wave their are patterns inside patterns eg. if their is a 1 push move on the 4hr that would equal a 3 push move on the 15min stopping at all the support and resistance areas along the way , is every move comprised of 3 pushes or are patterns repeating them self`s all the time

3-4-2013 7-04-28 PM.png

or maybe the pattern is reversing and mirroring itself not exactly but close.

sorry pictures are not in order .

Any thoughts on how to plot price or am I losing the plot

CJ helped us immensely but perhaps he didnt want to reveal all his secrets which is totally fair. I thank him for all that he has given me so far. Maybe he was going to one day but had to go away for a bit. Hopefully he'll return. Answering every post on here couldn't have been easy either.

Like you I have spotted the mirroring and reversing. I think the answer may come down to a specific pattern or patterns. When you see this then you know.

Also CJ said that the same patterns do tend to repeat themselves on the larger timeframes. So if we had a specific pattern e.g. like a funny shaped W on the h4... perhaps that same funny shaped W will happen on the daily just a couple of weeks later.

[seanyd]

CJ helped us immensely but perhaps he didnt want to reveal all his secrets which is totally fair. I thank him for all that he has given me so far. Maybe he was going to one day but had to go away for a bit. Hopefully he'll return. Answering every post on here couldn't have been easy either.

Like you I have spotted the mirroring and reversing. I think the answer may come down to a specific pattern or patterns. When you see this then you know.

Also CJ said that the same patterns do tend to repeat themselves on the larger timeframes. So if we had a specific pattern e.g. like a funny shaped W on the h4... perhaps that same funny shaped W will happen on the daily just a couple of weeks later.

Yes I am seeing similar patterns on all timeframes as well and sometimes I am spot on with predictions , the barf pattern is very common.
Yes CJ has given us a glimpse into the matrix , wonder how deep the rabbit hole goes

[kwanann]

Like what cj said, he doesn't expect anyone to trade like him, and I believe many of us who have posted the pictures have already integrated what we learnt into our own trading styles. Mine and edi(swisscheese) is similar in the sense that we look for pins to determine entry. However the exact position depends on when we are facing the charts and sometimes gut feel or experience which can never really be taught.

Edi does stack trades to double or triple the profits when things go his way.

Xrismak has adopted this into his trading, however his style is to open multiple lots with about the same price in the same period and let it rip, rather than cj way of stacking when price goes his way.

Do note that whatever it is, you can never trade like cj simply because you are not him.

Myself, after integrating cj way of trading, my hit rate has gone from hit and miss to 60% with nb 10.x to almost 100%. Problem is sometimes I put in stupid trades that ended up screwing me around.

Also I.m not doing this naked, my charts does have indicators to tell me where to look out for potential setup and TP areas

[kwanann]

What's happening to this thread guys? There was a time when it was red hot and I could not keep up with the new posts/pages that were generated!

So then let's continue posting charts ...

USDCHF H1 trapping volume on the third level with lots of pins.

Gary

Not sure it is the 3rd level. I definitely see 2 levels. Today was a only a 55 point move. My gut says price will mess around for a day or two then push up to maybe retouch the high from the 14th March which would be a great manipulation point and potential nice short position if it gave us a pattern with nice trapping pins, however if it will play out like this, remains to be seen.

Gotta say could be totally wrong. Most of the time it might be better to trade what you see and not what you think will happen.

Looking at d1, potential m forming, which might indicate a third push up in the next few days. On h1, there is trapping volume, those big boys have shorts all over the place.

Whether it will go up or down doesn't really matter, just put pendings if you don't have time or wait for it. When I have time I will post a picture perfect example of shorting yen and the thought process.

Note also the short and long term trends, you can easily follow everyone and buy or sell for quick profits while waiting for the big one to come

One thing though, I will always skip h4 due to get differences which causes them to be drawn differently for all. Also the view in h4 is sometimes very different from what a h1 will tell you

[mjws00]

Here is what I gleaned from CJ's forecasting. I am sure there are many subtleties beyond this and don't pretend to have knowledge. Only a pure appreciation for his art. IMHO it is too subtle and based on experience to try and explain to the masses. The tools and patterns though are all over his charts if you study, and begin to look for how the MM may execute on relieving weak traders of their funds.

Beautiful work.

Mike

[kwanann]

Here's the picture perfect CHFJPY trade.

I shall leave it to you to guess where i TP

[intcust]

eurjpyfxm30 w.png

eurjpyfxm15 w.png

eurjpyfxh1 w.png

Here is my e j take