The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Captain Jack]

Gary

So then let's continue posting charts ...

USDCHF H1 trapping volume on the third level with lots of pins.

Gary

I think you may have something there to watch. I notice on the H4 that it has reached its 3rd level. There is even a type of an "M" on the 15 min chart.
What worries me though is that is not showing any intention of going south.

There are rumors that the SNB wants to raise the EURCHF soil from 1.20 up.

Rumor of SNB pegging EURCHF at 1.25 has already been a factor in it's recent price rise. I think the downside has more potential than further upside.... all you need is a whisper of SNB keeping the same peg and down she goes! I'm short USDCHF...

CJ

[Captain Jack]

CJ helped us immensely but perhaps he didnt want to reveal all his secrets which is totally fair. I thank him for all that he has given me so far. Maybe he was going to one day but had to go away for a bit. Hopefully he'll return. Answering every post on here couldn't have been easy either.

Like you I have spotted the mirroring and reversing. I think the answer may come down to a specific pattern or patterns. When you see this then you know.

Also CJ said that the same patterns do tend to repeat themselves on the larger timeframes. So if we had a specific pattern e.g. like a funny shaped W on the h4... perhaps that same funny shaped W will happen on the daily just a couple of weeks later.

Yes I am seeing similar patterns on all timeframes as well and sometimes I am spot on with predictions , the barf pattern is very common.
Yes CJ has given us a glimpse into the matrix , wonder how deep the rabbit hole goes

The rabbit hole is deeper than you could imagine....but what lurks there is not a rabbit...

Most people have trouble with some of what I consider some of the "simpler concepts" of my theories. It is for this reason, that I feel they don't "really believe" the market is as I say it is and that they are playing from a stacked deck. They cannot "see" because they cannot believe.

Forecasting price? I've explained it to many before.... one or two's vision "began" to clear but about that time, they lost what they found, deep back down the "rabbit hole"....

To get into the "mapping" of price, I rely of my beliefs of what the forex market is, how it's traded, that price it's not "random", that news it not news to everybody, and that price is driven by more than supply and demand, fundamentals or anything other than greed. ...

Consider the data that the candles on your screen hold. From the smallest to the largest, they are comprised of price ticks... the tick chart is where it all begins....

Have you ever looked at that little "tick chart" window on Empty4? Ever wonder why they made it so small and limited? Do you understand the scaling changes on it as it does the larger charts but not in the same way or for the same reasons? Something to watch on a slow day or night....that's for sure as you just might "see" something familiar there....

CJ

[bluedog23]

CJ,

Nice to see you tonight; you write with such clarity. Hope all is well with you and your family.

Ray

[Captain Jack]

I'm still around though not as active.... a lot of the questions are starting to repeat...and most are answered by the group here....

As I said earlier, I don't trade like a madman everyday and some days I don't trade at all. I trade to make money. Sometimes I do it with a lot of orders, other times I do it with a few. I said before nobody needed to trade like I was trading earlier in the thread, to make money. It's not about the pips you make, it about making money.

My trade numbers have dropped off as I have been spending less time in the charts.... that doesn't mean that profits have dropped with the number of trades....it's all in the lots...

CJ

[Captain Jack]

CJ,

Nice to see you tonight; you write with such clarity. Hope all is well with you and your family.

Ray

Hi Ray,

All is well though it's not been business as normal here the past couple weeks.... it happens a lot....

Thanks for the kind words.

John

[Captain Jack]

I'll be posting some replies to the past weeks forum post but as it takes a lot of time to get caught up, I may not hit all of them or the ones that have already been replied to by others.

A break in the action should have given most people time to catch up with the thread.... hard to do when we are tossing out 10-15 pages day when we are rolling.

CJ

[kwanann]

welcome back CJ

Wow, looking at your lot size.. fantastic!

[Captain Jack]

welcome back CJ

Wow, looking at your lot size.. fantastic!

A don't look for perfect entry and exit.... I tend to take my money off the table before I should a lot of the time, but at that point, it IS my money...and I want to keep it when I'm comfortable with the trade profit. It also cuts down on my exposure to "the market".

I will ask you Kwanann, but the same applies to all... Is it not harder to find 10 trades across 10 pairs with multiple entries and lots totaling 100 lots total, than it is to find 3-5 trades and push the same number of lots at the smaller number of trades??

My idea of trading is finding a setup with a high probability of success and pounding it. Much easier to do than spread 100 lots across 10 pairs with 10 lots of each!

CJ

[kwanann]

welcome back CJ

Wow, looking at your lot size.. fantastic!

A don't look for perfect entry and exit.... I tend to take my money off the table before I should a lot of the time, but at that point, it IS my money...and I want to keep it when I'm comfortable with the trade profit. It also cuts down on my exposure to "the market".

I will ask you Kwanann, but the same applies to all... Is it not harder to find 10 trades across 10 pairs with multiple entries and lots totaling 100 lots total, than it is to find 3-5 trades and push the same number of lots at the smaller number of trades??

My idea of trading is finding a setup with a high probability of success and pounding it. Much easier to do than spread 100 lots across 10 pairs with 10 lots of each!

CJ

Yes definately, i used to open many trades across goodness knows how many pairs. Nowadays i just find about 2 to 3 pairs with high probability and just leave them to run. This has greatly contributed to my success rate.

Also the fact that the SL is so low, it becomes very manageable and i will be able to increase my lot size

Would like to point out to all though, high probability doesnt come from just the pins and W and M, there are other factors to consider as well

[f451]

I don't normally go in for predictions, because I feel they can be a bit too distracting from watching what is actually happening but GJ looks pretty interesting right now.

I'll be looking for pins and M and W's in the areas's I've marked.

GJ-thoughts.jpg