The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[intcust]

here is my 4hr eur cad. This why I am thinking of putting another buy on. What do you think Captain? I hope I got it right. Remember the retrace on 1 might not be over but we are at a s r line My chart does not show the right side very well. I am trying so show the begining of 2

[f451]

Ongoing... and possible.....

CJ

As for the EURCAD levels. We have just seen the final 3rd level move, easier seen on the H4.

Thanks for your reply. I'll take input from where ever I can get it.

Guess I'm still struggling with levels. I thought the levels were clear on this one. If the 3rd level just occurred which of the red arrows wasn't a new level down?

btw that is a 4h chart, each of the arrows is days apart.

Levels are a *guide*. Sometimes you get 2 pushes up or down then a reversal, sometimes 4 or 5 or 6. Generally it's three. So if it's just a guide, how to use the levels idea then? Well, if you've seen three days of rise or fall, then it's time to start looking for other key elements of a Foxy setup.

1/ is there an area of consolidation to the left, (mostly likely in the asian session)? [ ]
2/ does the range widen after this area (e.g. post the asian session?) [ ]
3/ on the lower timeframe (say 15M) is there a forcefully push outside of this consolidation range and into a potential area of manipulation (here you are looking for a few quick, strong candles into yesterdays high or low, week high or low, a previous swing point, pivot level or some other obvious point) [ ]
4/ does the spread widen to activate pending orders just beyond this level? [ ]
5/ after this quick push, does price rapidly retreat to close back below (above) the level, forming a pin or railroad tracks? []
6/ has an M or W formed at this level, preferably with the high or low of one leg beyond the level, but closes back beneath (above it)? [ ]

if you can tick the box on all or most of these then you have found a valid setup and you're ready to trade with the Fox.

You'll need to watch this happening on a 15M chart to really get a feel for the price action and the way Foxy actually moves price to sucker in traders. Moving with *speed* into the manipulation area (setting up the reversal) is a key element of the pattern, (as is the widening of the spread) - that fast push really works on the psychology of traders - I still get all the emotions myself ("OMG it's really taking off - maybe this IS the main move, maybe it'll breakout this time instead of reversing..." all that mental dross). Once you can spot this you'll find yourself trading this stuff with much greater confidence.

[Reaper]

Ongoing... and possible.....

CJ

As for the EURCAD levels. We have just seen the final 3rd level move, easier seen on the H4.

Thanks for your reply. I'll take input from where ever I can get it.

Guess I'm still struggling with levels. I thought the levels were clear on this one. If the 3rd level just occurred which of the red arrows wasn't a new level down?

btw that is a 4h chart, each of the arrows is days apart.

That's what I see but that's just my opinion and I may be wrong.

[fire580]

Thanks f451 - I have been trying to look for three levels up and then three down only to find that's apparently not always the case I though my level counting was way off - but your post has cleared this up for me, I will not only follow the levels but look for the reversal points as well.... very well put thank you again.

[intcust]

f451

I just read your post for like the fourth time and it just keeps getting better. It really sums up the cj trading method. Remember this is not a system. excellent job

[SatchFan]

Hello everyone,
I'm only on page 60 in my reading but I have read far enough along to start looking at charts to see what I can find. I found something tonight I wanted to post to see what feedback I get.

OK, looking at the AudChf 4hr, I found 3 levels down.

AudChf4hr.png

Now dropping down to the 15 min chart, I see we have a W formation forming but I'm not all that impressed because there aren't any major wicks in the support zone. Looks like some RRT's formed tho. I did buy a little late in my demo account just for some practice but I think I'm forgetting something...

AudChf 15min.png

Any feedback?

Peace,
SatchFan

[pips400]

Hello everyone,
I'm only on page 60 in my reading but I have read far enough along to start looking at charts to see what I can find. I found something tonight I wanted to post to see what feedback I get.

OK, looking at the AudChf 4hr, I found 3 levels down.

AudChf4hr.png

Now dropping down to the 15 min chart, I see we have a W formation forming but I'm not all that impressed because there aren't any major wicks in the support zone. Looks like some RRT's formed tho. I did buy a little late in my demo account just for some practice but I think I'm forgetting something...

AudChf 15min.png

Any feedback?

Peace,
SatchFan

Hi SatchFan, I'm no expert but this is what I see. I wouldn't be jumping from the 4 hour to the 15 minute but if I use the 4 hour at all I'd be dropping down to the 1 hour. In reality I don't use the 4 hour for fox hunting very much, there's no reason why you can't it's just my preference to stick to the 1 hour/15 minute because I'm looking for the three day cycle which I find easier to see with the 1 hour, then drop to the 15 minute for the detail. If we look at the AUDCHF on the 2nd and 3rd May there were two pushes up, which totalled around 2xADR. For me when I see PA reaching 2xADR (in this case around 160 pips) I'm not as confident for a continuation because when I check many other price moves across currency pairs, this figure seems to recurr over and over again as the point of exhuastion and reversal or at least further accummulation phase. In the AUDCHF case on 6th May we were either in reversal (or accummulation), not sure which, but certainly not a third push up. In fact for the aggressive trader there was a perfect railroad track end of London/middle of NY session to go short that would have bagged about 4:1 r:r So now we're going down, so I'm looking for a short on the 7th especially coming into the London or NY sessions, but lots of action during the Asian meant that PA was close to the ADR so I'd be wary for further continuation for that day. There was a really nice W, but that's a bottoming formation for going long, but really I'm looking to go short. So in conclusion yesterday was a confused picture for me, and I'd be expecting further accummulation/manipulation/confusion. Therefore I would be waiting for a clear push at this stage in either direction, and probably then try to get in on the second push/continuation.

Hope that wasn't too confusing, and like I said I'm no expert just my humble opinion.

[Captain Jack]

Hello everyone,
I'm only on page 60 in my reading but I have read far enough along to start looking at charts to see what I can find. I found something tonight I wanted to post to see what feedback I get.

OK, looking at the AudChf 4hr, I found 3 levels down.

AudChf4hr.png

Now dropping down to the 15 min chart, I see we have a W formation forming but I'm not all that impressed because there aren't any major wicks in the support zone. Looks like some RRT's formed tho. I did buy a little late in my demo account just for some practice but I think I'm forgetting something...

AudChf 15min.png

Any feedback?

Peace,
SatchFan

Welcome aboard SatchFan. I'm not sure if you saw it since you are reading at page 60, but this scenario for AUDCHF is still in effect for me....

CJ

[Captain Jack]

NZDUSD.....

[Captain Jack]

GBPUSD....