10.4 A Complete System

[Nidolap]

I totally understand what Bob writes, it is like he is translating what is so hard to get from economic gurus expensive words...

Thanks for all Bob, so glad I found this forum.

[TraderDesk]

I look for patterns when I am trading in many different timeframes. Here is a pattern that occurs on the daily chart in respect to JPY with GBP. In the preceding four months around the 11th of each month JPY is around it's weakest. Only in FEB. was the period extended from the first week of the month. Fundamentals could be influencing cyclic patterns that we should be aware of.

Of course this is a currency pair so GBP strength is a major factor as well and need to be looked at but for now I am looking at JPY. If and I mean IF this cyclic pattern holds for this month and GBP maintains a reasonable strength then I would look at price action topping out around the 11th once again... Now that could be a few days before or a few days after. At what level I don't know but if there is a very bullish move it could get to the channel trend line which is around 160.80 but I think for that to happen 100 level on USD/JPY needs to break...

Just a picture I am looking at when I set my buy limits/stops levels next week with 10.4/5.....

5-5-2013 10-43-46 AM.jpg

[kwanann]

Yup this has been the case for most yen pairs, not just gbp. Anyway carried over a long usdjpy, let's see what happens in 12hrs

I.m looking for it to hit 99.9 where i will tp. It will probably hit 100 to 101 before going back to 98 or so to start off next month.

Either way, as long as you are south of 100 you can't really lose, as long as you have the capital

[nanningbob]

I look for patterns when I am trading in many different timeframes. Here is a pattern that occurs on the daily chart in respect to JPY with GBP. In the preceding four months around the 11th of each month JPY is around it's weakest. Only in FEB. was the period extended from the first week of the month. Fundamentals could be influencing cyclic patterns that we should be aware of.

Of course this is a currency pair so GBP strength is a major factor as well and need to be looked at but for now I am looking at JPY. If and I mean IF this cyclic pattern holds for this month and GBP maintains a reasonable strength then I would look at price action topping out around the 11th once again... Now that could be a few days before or a few days after. At what level I don't know but if there is a very bullish move it could get to the channel trend line which is around 160.80 but I think for that to happen 100 level on USD/JPY needs to break...

Just a picture I am looking at when I set my buy limits/stops levels next week with 10.4/5.....

5-5-2013 10-43-46 AM.jpg

That is a great analysis and I was just about to see if there was a JPY pattern. Bonds sell early in the month, market moves and finally dies out. Then a retrace. Last month I was not ready for such a big retrace. This month I will be looking for it. Thanks very much for the study.

Will usd/jpy go past the 100 this month. That is a good question but sooner or later it will. Friday was the first day of the big move. Let us see how much further it will go. Of course it will never be an April again but hopefully more than what happened Friday.

[nanningbob]

OK here are some possibilities for the JPY. Chf/jpy and cad/jpy are higher than before so they are in new territory. My history does not go far enough back to study them. If it goes higher that is new territory and there wont be any S/R areas to judge it by.

Aud/jpy is near its historic high. 300 pips from last months high and 600 pips from its recent historic high. With AUD weakness probably coming this summer its upward movement along with nzd/jpy are limited but there is some room.

These are monthly charts

[nanningbob]

The place for the biggest move is the GBP. It has a ton of room to go. GBP/jpy has already broke last months high and will probably go much higher.

[nanningbob]

Eur/jpy has 150 pips to go to last months high and 600 to a major resistance area.

[nanningbob]

USD/JPY has some real tough R levels to get through to break up in a big move. You can see them on the chart. If it clears those two then it can soar.

[nanningbob]

Obviously the one with the greatest potential will be the gbp/jpy. Look for your biggest moves coming from there. usd/jpy will have big moves if it can break those big resistance areas. The others have upside but maybe limited unless they break previous highs and go to ?????????????

[nanningbob]

One last point, none of the up bars match the size of some of the down bars. If the market every gets behind this, watch out above. There could be some really exciting trades in the future. The summer however, we could see price hit these R points and bounce off of them. Then the big moves maybe for the fall. We will see.