10.4 A Complete System

[nanningbob]

Interesting article on China:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/chin ... risis.html

You dont need to understand all the lingo but you only need to understand is China's growth rate of 7-10% is an unsustainable goal. Real economies grow in the 3-6% range. Sooner or later China's economy will slow into a more normal economy. However, as this article points out, the big companies in China are still tied with the Party in Beijing and they want to keep the gravy train rolling. The longer they keep it rolling the bigger the bang will be when it cant. As China slows down it simply means they wont be buying Aud products at the rate they have been doing. The AUD is overpriced for the rest of the world to buy their products so to sell them the AUD will have to come down to be priced competitively. Of course the NZD will follow since the aud and nzd economies are inherently tied together. Look for aud and nzd to start sliding on a downward slope as both are going below the 240 line. Of course this can be interrupted by China trying to prop up its economy but they are running out of credit room to do this. Most people do not realize that China has borrowed more than any other nation the last several years to keep the economy going as based on percent of GDP. That made sense back in 2008 but now it is making less and less sense. An economy growing at 4-6% is still a healthy economy but forcing it to stay overheated is going to cause major problems in the long run. Just be on the look out for aud and nzd slow down as China adjust/not adjust to changes in its economy. This article does a good explanation of the forces at work inside China.

[Ingot54]

Interesting article on China:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/chin ... risis.html

You dont need to understand all the lingo but you only need to understand is China's growth rate of 7-10% is an unsustainable goal ...

The AUD is overpriced for the rest of the world to buy their products so to sell them the AUD will have to come down to be priced competitively. Of course the NZD will follow since the AUD and NZD economies are inherently tied together. Look for AUD and NZD to start sliding on a downward slope as both are going below the 240 line ...

This article does a good explanation of the forces at work inside China.

Thanks Bob.

For the AUD and NZD to weaken, which I believe they will ... the other crosses will have to strengthen.

This might/might not be the USD , since the majors all want a weak unit of currency.

Interesting times ... they can't all weaken ... all are relevant to each other, so there will be winners and losers in this.

The question on my mind is this: Will the emerging nations currencies take the hit (ie strengthen) in order to allow the others to weaken?

It seems possible that the the emerging nations (we are not allowed to use the politically incorrect term "third world" anymore) will again be asked to pay the price for affluence in the more powerful nations.

We don't trade the Brazilian REAL or the Turkish new LIRA, or the Thai BAHT ... but will we see these emerge soon as useful speculators trading tools? The Baht is up "5.6% this year against the greenback" according to this article:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... g-in-japan

Spreads will have to come down of course, but this will happen I guess if they become more attractive due to trends etc.

Food for thought ... and the 10.4+ tools you have given us do not care what they are indicating - it's just another chart. 10.4 rocks!

[Chris]

did anyone catch the bounce of the audjpy off the 240 and WP?

[Chris]

Scratch the audjpy, I just made 146 pip in less then 30 sec off this news release
hit three levels in the EURAud like nothing

10:30pm AUD
Cash Rate 2.75% 3.00% 3.00%

That triggered a bunch of JPY trades for me too, hope they work out.

[garyfritz]

Bob, you have finally got me into trading manually. You have most certainly taught me to fish!

+1. Bob, I have **NEVER** traded manually. I've always built my own systems (EAs) and traded those. This system is finally getting me to try to program the computer between my ears. Thank you for that!

Lovely moves this week. My schedule is nuts and I only manage to check my charts 2-3 times a day max, and yet I've got a nice basket going:

NB.gif

If I can keep this up for a month or so, I might start throwing real money at it!

[nanningbob]

Bob, you have finally got me into trading manually. You have most certainly taught me to fish!

+1. Bob, I have **NEVER** traded manually. I've always built my own systems (EAs) and traded those. This system is finally getting me to try to program the computer between my ears. Thank you for that!

Lovely moves this week. My schedule is nuts and I only manage to check my charts 2-3 times a day max, and yet I've got a nice basket going:

NB.gif

If I can keep this up for a month or so, I might start throwing real money at it!

I tripled the size of my account and I have already made more than half of what I did all last month. I hope to be in the 10k+ account by this fall. I have a ton of confidence in this system. I think tweaking the info page will finalize it. I think you will like what I will try to do comparing the 4H CSS with daily CSS with overall market on the 1H. If I can fit that all on 1 page it will be a quick read to exactly where the market is going to move. I think the degree of reliability will be high. Anyway that is going to take some time to finish off those but it looks promising.

[Gertje]

Bob, you have finally got me into trading manually. You have most certainly taught me to fish!

+1. Bob, I have **NEVER** traded manually. I've always built my own systems (EAs) and traded those. This system is finally getting me to try to program the computer between my ears. Thank you for that!

Lovely moves this week. My schedule is nuts and I only manage to check my charts 2-3 times a day max, and yet I've got a nice basket going:

NB.gif

If I can keep this up for a month or so, I might start throwing real money at it!

I tripled the size of my account and I have already made more than half of what I did all last month. I hope to be in the 10k+ account by this fall. I have a ton of confidence in this system. I think tweaking the info page will finalize it. I think you will like what I will try to do comparing the 4H CSS with daily CSS with overall market on the 1H. If I can fit that all on 1 page it will be a quick read to exactly where the market is going to move. I think the degree of reliability will be high. Anyway that is going to take some time to finish off those but it looks promising.

Maybe the BigMac thread can shed some light, Bunker already uses the H4 and Daily CSS for entry's.

Unfortunately I can't use the new template, it kills my processor before I changed all the charts.
Went back to 10.4/5.0 template and try to avoid early entry's.

Had a week-off last week, with no trading and just let the existing trades from the previous week come to close. Only entered some pending above PA on the JPY-crosses in the evenings, closed them all and made 5.000+ pips on fridaynight alone.

Uncredible system, hard to imagine that it can be improved.

[tboy]

Gertje
I'm intrigued by your 5,000 pip haul - congratulations! Are you using every daily line / mid line for pending entries, or weekly lines? How many trades were you getting into on the JPY runs on Friday for instance?
Secondly, are you manually managing your SLs on each trade (ie bringing them up to BE each time) or maybe using a dynamic stop? Just wonder how you cope with the flow!
Thanks

[Gertje]

Gertje
I'm intrigued by your 5,000 pip haul - congratulations! Are you using every daily line / mid line for pending entries, or weekly lines? How many trades were you getting into on the JPY runs on Friday for instance?
Secondly, are you manually managing your SLs on each trade (ie bringing them up to BE each time) or maybe using a dynamic stop? Just wonder how you cope with the flow!
Thanks

USDJPY
Trades Total: 8
Trades Won: 8
Trades Lost: 0
Max Profit: 159 pips
Max Loss: 0 pips
Avg Profit: 88 pips
705.9

NZDJPY
Trades Total: 10
Trades Won: 10
Trades Lost: 0
Max Profit: 195 pips
Max Loss: 0 pips
Avg Profit: 110 pips
1098.2

AUDJPY
Trades Total: 4
Trades Won: 4
Trades Lost: 0
Max Profit: 169 pips
Max Loss: 0 pips
Avg Profit: 113 pips
453.7

EURJPY
Trades Total: 5
Trades Won: 5
Trades Lost: 0
Max Profit: 204 pips
Max Loss: 0 pips
Avg Profit: 144 pips
721.8

CHFJPY
Trades Total: 5
Trades Won: 5
Trades Lost: 0
Max Profit: 156 pips
Max Loss: 0 pips
Avg Profit: 98 pips
491.0

CADJPY
Trades Total: 8
Trades Won: 8
Trades Lost: 0
Max Profit: 151 pips
Max Loss: 0 pips
Avg Profit: 86 pips
685.6

GBPJPY
Trades Total: 7
Trades Won: 7
Trades Lost: 0
Max Profit: 214 pips
Max Loss: 0 pips
Avg Profit: 121 pips
850.0

[Gertje]

I used daily lines, and set no SL. Got some DD during the week, but am used to that.
Missed the thursday move, was in the car with the kids but 'knew' that the JPY would run again.

Was waiting fridaynight to TP and it worked out like planned.