10.4 A Complete System

[Gertje]

Hey the USD/ Mexican peso is looking good...care to risk it?? I just put it on my demo acct for future info.

I wish I could trade that pair.

It sure helps with the pip-count when traded....

[6y588]

Have a gork at EURGBP 4H.

If my CSS is correct, then we might have some shorts soon.

Keep in mind a lot of support not to much lower.

Looking at possible buy for AudJpy at WMS1. Are you looking for shorts at WMR1 for EurGbp?

[sponn]

Just to let you know. WP is over 240 line, but wms1 is below 240 line. Also it could be dangerous... most of jpy have got long run so maybe a retrace is comming. If it does aud/jpy will drop with other pairs I believe, crossing 240 again (like in recent weeks).

[6y588]

Just to let you know. WP is over 240 line, but wms1 is below 240 line. Also it could be dangerous... most of jpy have got long run so maybe a retrace is comming. If it does aud/jpy will drop with other pairs I believe, crossing 240 again (like in recent weeks).

CSS turned red, so will wait for another opportunity...

[nanningbob]

Just to let you know. WP is over 240 line, but wms1 is below 240 line. Also it could be dangerous... most of jpy have got long run so maybe a retrace is comming. If it does aud/jpy will drop with other pairs I believe, crossing 240 again (like in recent weeks).

CSS turned red, so will wait for another opportunity...

Isnt that a great warning indie. It has saved me a bunch of DD so far, I know that.

[nanningbob]

Some of you bond traders may want to comment on this but this could be a major story if it continues to develop. China's bond markets are becoming a bit shaky but i dont know all the ramifications of this story. So Bond guys who understand this stuff please comment. If China's bond markets do freeze up expect the AUD to drop like a rock.

0230 GMT [Dow Jones] China government bonds fall early Monday amid a lack of active trading due to concerns that liquidity may tighten. Early bond activity is slow and trading orders are deadlocked, traders say. Only the six-year government bond is seeing yields increase slightly. Earlier, China's central bank gauged demand for Central Bank bills for this week, indicating that it may drain liquidity from the market later in the week. The yield on the one-year bond rises one basis point to 2.82% while the yield on the seven-year bond rises one basis point to 3.33%. (chao.deng@dowjones.com)


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[nicoacademia]

Some of you bond traders may want to comment on this but this could be a major story if it continues to develop. China's bond markets are becoming a bit shaky but i dont know all the ramifications of this story. So Bond guys who understand this stuff please comment. If China's bond markets do freeze up expect the AUD to drop like a rock.

0230 GMT [Dow Jones] China government bonds fall early Monday amid a lack of active trading due to concerns that liquidity may tighten. Early bond activity is slow and trading orders are deadlocked, traders say. Only the six-year government bond is seeing yields increase slightly. Earlier, China's central bank gauged demand for Central Bank bills for this week, indicating that it may drain liquidity from the market later in the week. The yield on the one-year bond rises one basis point to 2.82% while the yield on the seven-year bond rises one basis point to 3.33%. (chao.deng@dowjones.com)

just thinking out loud. this doesn't make sense if the chinese govt feels the market is weak.
because while the US and Japan are buying bonds, the chinese govt is selling bills(drain of liquidity) thus appreciating its own currency.(in theory its supposed to but given its a controlled currency...)

moreover if bond prices fall/yields rise it will make the price of risk increase in the chinese market. thus affecting risk weighting in loans too.
and we've all heard about loan bubbles in china.

it just doesn't make sense and is contractionary monetary policy.
that will lead to contractionary economic results.

bottom line is...its negative for the AUD indeed Bob.

the only other thing is how much they will drain at the short end of the yield curve.

more inputs please.

this year has seen government bond markets slowly take centre stage.

[nanningbob]

Want to know the truth about China's economy, here is one news story

China’s April Industrial Output Rises 9.3% From Year Earlier


And here is another

China April factory output disappoints, clouds outlook

Now go out there and trade in confidence.

[zentauro67]

Too early to say, but I´ve a bad feeling for this week. The overall seem in a slow retracing mood. If I had to risk a forecast, I would say EURUSD will return to 240 and stay there some days doing nasty things and confusing the global market. USDJPY (with this top pins...) seem giving back 200 pips and retesting 100 level sooner or later. AUD and CAD pairs also giving back some pips from last week big move. Hopefully I´m wrong, but this is the first monday in months I haven´t taken yet an only trade.

[nanningbob]

Too early to say, but I´ve a bad feeling for this week. The overall seem in a slow retracing mood. If I had to risk a forecast, I would say EURUSD will return to 240 and stay there some days doing nasty things and confusing the global market. USDJPY (with this top pins...) seem giving back 200 pips and retesting 100 level sooner or later. AUD and CAD pairs also giving back some pips from last week big move. Hopefully I´m wrong, but this is the first monday in months I haven´t taken yet an only trade.

I took those CAD trades pocketed about a third of a percent and jumped back out. Nothing looks good to me right now. I have no DD so need ot take any risky trades.