The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[kwanann]

Fantastic friday session for EURUSD, another classic fox pattern frequently mentioned

Very good point Kwanann makes here - once the fox has a profitable position he needs to liquidate it to realise profits - that means finds buyers in a downtrend when he has profitable shorts, and sellers in an uptrend when he has profitable longs. It's also the reason why level 3 is so choppy - after the moves unwinding positions may make or require a lengthy choppy trading range to unwind or reload...

But why did you think buyers down there at 1.28? Big Round Number? Or something on the left of the chart we can see?

Well big round number is one, also that is the previous high low of end mar, early apr, so there will be positions there waiting, s/r point

[bernard]

Hi Kwanann,
Thank you for the screenshot and the analysis.
I have worked on the same chart and am posting it in 4 screenshots.
Comments are welcome.

Bernard

[bluedog23]

Hi Kwanann,
Thank you for the screenshot and the analysis.
I have worked on the same chart and am posting it in 4 screenshots.
Comments are welcome.

Bernard

Bernard,

Excellent analysis with screenshots, thank you. I would take an entry here as I don't think it is too late, but I would also place a buy limit order down around the lower body of the second pin candle on your chart. There can always be one more spike down.

[kwanann]

Well I won't be entering any long positions there, looks purely like those foxes offloading all their shorts and calling it a day.

Neither would I put any long orders for h4 trades. Longs would be good for scalps, but I would be them as soon as possible

Notice how even though it formed the w/retraced, it never really breached the highs of the w. I.m guessing they want to give the longs a hard time, maybe wipe them out before going up. Or go down and hit the lowest low of mar/apr

My guess, it will go down still, possibly breaching the resistance of mar apr. but that's predicting the future based on gut feel and I ain't falling into that trap again. Let's see the tracks of the foxes and then decide

[seanyd]

Seanyd
Nothing to be sorry about that is what this is all about working together to make better decisions and learn from now how far does it fall Agnat is working on that formula I am still trying to get were to take the adr from any help appreciated probably a post I missed our did not grasp if send post link

Intcust

End of the day, trade what you see.. You see a w forming, Buy (this is valid in the lower tf actually, look at the pin bars just before eur session), I did that and got a few pips.

At a h4tf, it's a sell setup, going back to previous low, so at the break of the lead in line, sell back into the overall trend

It all depends on what tf you re using and what you are seeing

Yes I done the same got about 30 pips , this is what I see happened , great in hindsight , at the time thought this was going to the moon , first up triggered the sell stop then reversed went up 2 times then bounced of the 50 ema looking like a text book short , take it down but not breaking the low shorts trapped , spike up to the 200 sucking in longs bringing it down again making another textbook higher low spike it up again but making a lower high aka H and S pattern longs trapped pulled away quickly , shoulda known the euro is a tricky fox

eurusdm15fristop.png

[seanyd]

Also would I be right in saying that eur/usd adr is 125 pips so 3 times this would be 375 so roughly from the last peek high till the spike at the bottom on fri is at that now.

[intcust]

Also would I be right in saying that eur/usd adr is 125 pips so 3 times this would be 375 so roughly from the last peek high till the spike at the bottom on fri is at that now.

That has been myquestion where do you take the adr from the peak the body?????????

[bernard]

Also would I be right in saying that eur/usd adr is 125 pips so 3 times this would be 375 so roughly from the last peek high till the spike at the bottom on fri is at that now.

That has been myquestion where do you take the adr from the peak the body?????????

From the top on May 8 till the bottom of the pin (Hammer) on this Friday is 399 pips.
It is more than the 3xADR

Bernard

[kwanann]

3xADR is only a guide...

[Reaper]

Okay I had a look at GBPAUD. I think price is currently sitting on L2P2 and there is one final push to go to hit L3 which would also hit the 1.57 mark.

As for EURAUD, I think we're at L3P3 and we need an M to print.

GBPCAD the original upward trend up should continue and price should retest the highs of April.

AUDCHF we're in a range and price could reverse, however in terms of levels I think we're at level 2 and price should fall another 300 pips... unsure.

CADCHF price has hit level 2 and we may see price rise to level 3 this week