The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[bernard]

Yesterday, on a Saturday when the Forex market was closed and every trader had plenty of time on his/her hand I posted 4 screenshots.
On the charts of EURUSD that is the most favorite pair, that has gone down 390 pips almost nonstop, I implemented what we have learned so far.
I showed, we have the 3 days, the three levels and pushes, we have the pin, we have the RRT, we are beyond the 3xADR and we clearly see the big W.
I am sure if you go to the chart you will also see the volumes growing and the spread expanding. This is what we have been taught by master CJ.
Then I asked the gurus of the thread if they would trade based on the trade guidelines set in this thread.
Nobody said there is anything wrong with my take of the charts, and nobody dared to take the trade neither.

Morale of the Story: This is an extremely difficult system to trade. You cannot read the thread and trade based on that. You must develop some kind of feel for it, that I personally have NOT been able to.
A mother hugs her baby, looks at his eyes and knows exactly what he needs. Is he hungry? thirsty? tired and wants to sleep? bored and wants to play? is constipated or has diarrhea?
You cannot walk to your neighborhood Toys r Us, buy a doll, look at its eyes and assume you know what it needs. You end up changing diapers that it really does not need.

Give me any chart, any time frame and I show you Ms and Ws one every 3-seconds IN THE PAST. Everybody can.
But, to sit at a Live chart trading with real hard earned money, going against the trend, I cannot.

Those who can and are profitable on a Live account, have earned my utmost respect and admiration. Good for them.
When CJ says you cannot trade like me, he knows what he is talking about. He has a real baby in his arm and I am holding a 99 Cent doll.
Sorry for the long post.
Bernard

[Reaper]

Well I won't be entering any long positions there, looks purely like those foxes offloading all their shorts and calling it a day.

Neither would I put any long orders for h4 trades. Longs would be good for scalps, but I would be them as soon as possible

Notice how even though it formed the w/retraced, it never really breached the highs of the w. I.m guessing they want to give the longs a hard time, maybe wipe them out before going up. Or go down and hit the lowest low of mar/apr

My guess, it will go down still, possibly breaching the resistance of mar apr. but that's predicting the future based on gut feel and I ain't falling into that trap again. Let's see the tracks of the foxes and then decide

Xrismak and f451 and Agnat,
what are your takes on the EURUSD? Up or Down on Monday? 150 pips up to Fibo 38 or 100 down to test the March-april low?

best
Bernard

Bernard

My inclination would be to hopefully see a W and a long bias. That being said I wouldnt trade EU and opt for other pairs with better setups.

There is a classical Head and Shoulder Top in weekly chart and neckline about 1.2785. Long is of high risk.

That's why I would probably not trade this pair. Best thing to do is to wait. If it prints a large W in the next week or so we have a long bias and if it significantly breaches March lows then a short bias.

As for Monday/Tuesday, I would like to see it retest March lows and then print a W there.

[kwanann]

Guys to be clear, it might be good to identify your trading timeframe when you post the charts. Just because CJ posted a H4 3 levels and 3 pushes does not mean everyone goes to that time frame, post what you feel are the L3P3 and then post a M15 chart asking why not trade that reversal.

Personally i trade H1 and above, and am comfortable with some DD. I don't really put a SL (ok its a 150pip SL) because i'm trading with the trend of the bigger TF, meaning reversals in the smaller timeframe are acceptable to me.

Since i'm in singapore, working full time, and have very young kids. i rather spend time with my kids then spend countless hours looking at the screen. Trading hours sucks for me as well. I start the day in the Asian session, which doesnt move much. EUR session is just after lunch or when i'm travelling home, so i cannot TP at the best moment. US session is close to midnight and i would much rather sleep then see the screen.

Started off trading M15 via NT (naked trading), pips rolled in, but the time on screen got too much for me. so i moved onto the higher TF, trading with a preset TP and BE when i reach 20 pips

Bernard,

IF i was trading the M15 timeframe and i was watching the screen at that point, i would have taken a buy stop at 1.28 once i see all those pins forming around there, trade would be closed somewhere at 1.238 for a profit of about 20pips once i see the pins, but thats purely scalping based on pins

Looking at H1, i would have taken my sell exit at the pins, with worse case TP at 1.2817 which is still a nice profit for me. Then i wait for the retrace and enter again

Looking at H4, i might decide to wait somemore and see if it retests 1.28

[f451]

AUD is in a huge short trend breaking out to the downside after sitting in giant daily trading range for nearly two years. If you are trading reversals long on AUD pairs, make sure your targets are appropriately small. If you are trading short, you can go for more. This is a discretionary approach and the key to all manual trading systems is having the experience to read the trading context.

Another thing to remember is that trends end in trading ranges, then a new trend forms and breaks out of that range. If the trend is big daily one, then the trading range will be larger. What does it mean for the trading this way? Well you might see three levels on a daily chart then a few days or a week of choppy price action. Not to say you couldn't trade pins and RRT in that kind of level three chop, but your take profits need to be adjusted accordingly (down to 40 or 50 pips a go) and you need to figure where the range boundaries are to make sure you don't trade long into resistance or short into support.

Personally I'd focus on spotting those strong quick moves that are abruptly reversed and trade the second leg of any M or W that forms at that level. Trade them from almost exactly the same price level as the first leg pin or RRT. Once you can semi reliably do that, look for the larger patterns and worry about bias. You'll get some wrong but the questions you should ask when these trades go bad are why? Go look at the chrat context. Patterns about bias and three pushes, and levels will start to emerge, and you can use that to improve your trade selection. If you don't see a pattern then you probably made a simple mistake. Eliminate those, build your experience and understanding of context, and watch your trading improve.

[intcust]

Yesterday, on a Saturday when the Forex market was closed and every trader had plenty of time on his/her hand I posted 4 screenshots.
On the charts of EURUSD that is the most favorite pair, that has gone down 390 pips almost nonstop, I implemented what we have learned so far.
I showed, we have the 3 days, the three levels and pushes, we have the pin, we have the RRT, we are beyond the 3xADR and we clearly see the big W.
I am sure if you go to the chart you will also see the volumes growing and the spread expanding. This is what we have been taught by master CJ.
Then I asked the gurus of the thread if they would trade based on the trade guidelines set in this thread.
Nobody said there is anything wrong with my take of the charts, and nobody dared to take the trade neither.

Morale of the Story: This is an extremely difficult system to trade. You cannot read the thread and trade based on that. You must develop some kind of feel for it, that I personally have NOT been able to.
A mother hugs her baby, looks at his eyes and knows exactly what he needs. Is he hungry? thirsty? tired and wants to sleep? bored and wants to play? is constipated or has diarrhea?
You cannot walk to your neighborhood Toys r Us, buy a doll, look at its eyes and assume you know what it needs. You end up changing diapers that it really does not need.

Give me any chart, any time frame and I show you Ms and Ws one every 3-seconds IN THE PAST. Everybody can.
But, to sit at a Live chart trading with real hard earned money, going against the trend, I cannot.

Those who can and are profitable on a Live account, have earned my utmost respect and admiration. Good for them.
When CJ says you cannot trade like me, he knows what he is talking about. He has a real baby in his arm and I am holding a 99 Cent doll.
Sorry for the long post.
Bernard

Bernard,

I am no guru but I will tell you what I see. Days ago and 300 pips later and in real time I posted a sell on the eur usd with a 1.28 target. It hit that I also in real time called for what I think is the P3L3 move friday. I also posted what I think is need for everyone to post the charts in real time and make a call. This works. I have been doing a similar thing on the 1 min for a while and it works. Stand back and look at what the chart says. Keep it simple look for the pushes it is very important. No push no level move just consolidation or fox playing or what ever you want to call it. I am now posting a eur cad h4 chart I feel we just had a W on the bottom and it is in level one. Very important know what level and push you think you are in. To me that is the key. Otherwise you don't know what baby you are kissing yours or the neighbors or in other words what road you are on. I miss read the chart a while back so I am long the eur cad from that trade. I plan to hold it for a while. But you also need to look at the day chart it looks like the retrace will be short lived because it looks like we are just finishing level one on that chart. CJ I would appreciate your input on my chart. In the end if it does not work for you then it is not right for you. But please look at the pushes and levels and make sure you are on the right level. I am not buying the eur usd right now becasue I don't think we have finished level 3 but I am always wrong. If it does stop going down and messes around at this level for a few days and there is a clear W (I don't see one on the 4 hr) I would take a buy. I will post it if I see it. The lead in line is very important for me but to each there own. It is your money so trade how you feel comfortable. If this does not work for you then do what does. I do appreciate you putting out your charts in real time I think everyone should do that. I just don't see the W right now. It looks like we still need two more pushes on the 4 hour chart. So a long would not be my choice. I think right now is a sell and try to get at least 1 or 2 adr from the p 1 on the chart.

Thanks,

incust

[intcust]

Hi Kwanann,
Thank you for the screenshot and the analysis.
I have worked on the same chart and am posting it in 4 screenshots.
Comments are welcome.

Bernard

Bernard,

After reading your post again I realized you are mixing granny smith apples with golden delicious apples. Both are apples but two different types. If you are going to go from the 4 hr to the 15 min. then you can take the long off the 15 min. but don't think that is the new 4 hr. It is not it is just the retrace on the 4 hr the 15 min is picking up. You can trade them and make money CJ has said this but it takes a quicker look at the chart and smaller targets. So if the 15 signals a long against the 4 hr make sure you count the pushes they can be tricky on a counter trend move and get out with some pips. Then take it back with the trend. But don't look at the 15 min chart and say that is what the 4 hr is doing. You cannot take that leap. Each chart stands alone in its own time frame. Yes the 15 min can be a trigger to exit the 4 hr trade way early and then catch some move in the opposite direction and then back to the 4 hr direction but don't think that the they are the same they are not. That is why I could not find the w on the 4 hr it is not there it is on a lower time frame. Also the the so called gurus are all telling not to take a long and why they feel that way based on the 4 hr chart. I hope this is helpful. I am not trying to beat up on you. I am trying to explain what I see. But what do I know I am always wrong.

Thanks,

intcust

[intcust]

eru gbp sell is on. see chart. P2 level 2 is in form might wait and get better buy in than I did. I did not look at lower time frame to see were they were. This is a 4 hr chart. Done for the night now. Hope I did not pi_______________s anyone off.

incust

[mjws00]

I'll nibble on the EURUSD Chart. It is setting up for a longer term move, imho. This is my take. Predicting isn't that important. What matters is we have some very nice places where price can be manipulated.

Interestingly ~1.2950, 1.2750, 1.2650 have confluence every which way. I'd like to see em take the stops below 1.2650 on a big spike, and might scalp a bounce there. There is likely a 2:1 trade somewhere around 1.2750 as well. Possible very tight stop long. But a good fox would suck us in there. spike it down to 1.2650ish, and then induce massive pain on those breakout shorts. Only to reverse once loaded nicely around 1.2950-1.3000 after squeeze.

For the short term players. 5-15 min chart has hit the stops low, then shifted the zone, unfortunately RRT and pins @ 1.2850 to throw us back to the Daily Pivot. Asian consolidation, and then a bunch of holidays so might range. My bias is short too 1.2821 Then long to test 1.2860-1.2870. Not even gonna bother scalping that.

Charts are good. Just for fun. A little color on the 15M one. Sometimes helps me focus on where foxy might get busy, and where he is leaving carcasses.

Have fun boys. I try and get outside in the summer so trying to shift to 1H+ TF.

Mike

[intcust]

I'll nibble on the EURUSD Chart. It is setting up for a longer term move, imho. This is my take. Predicting isn't that important. What matters is we have some very nice places where price can be manipulated.

Interestingly ~1.2950, 1.2750, 1.2650 have confluence every which way. I'd like to see em take the stops below 1.2650 on a big spike, and might scalp a bounce there. There is likely a 2:1 trade somewhere around 1.2750 as well. Possible very tight stop long. But a good fox would suck us in there. spike it down to 1.2650ish, and then induce massive pain on those breakout shorts. Only to reverse once loaded nicely around 1.2950-1.3000 after squeeze.

For the short term players. 5-15 min chart has hit the stops low, then shifted the zone, unfortunately RRT and pins @ 1.2850 to throw us back to the Daily Pivot. Asian consolidation, and then a bunch of holidays so might range. My bias is short too 1.2821 Then long to test 1.2860-1.2870. Not even gonna bother scalping that.

Charts are good. Just for fun. A little color on the 15M one. Sometimes helps me focus on where foxy might get busy, and where he is leaving carcasses.

Have fun boys. I try and get outside in the summer so trying to shift to 1H+ TF.

Mike

I see a big m on the daily see attached.

[kwanann]

intcust, thats not L3, each level must be lower than the previous. In this case L3 is higher than L2.

Again back to the TF issue, on higher TF, this pair has a short bias. At least until it reaches the L2 Low or even the LL in Oct 2012.

If you are going on a lower TF, there are definately changes to scalp long. Its all a matter of perspective.

For me, i'm done with this pair for now, and like angat, will wait for the W to print before taking it long. Better to spend your time with other higher probability pairs, like AUD