10.4 A Complete System

[Gertje]

Already looking forward to the start of the new tradingweek, with Kuroda speaking sunday.....
Will the JPY gap UP or DOWN?

[peranders]

Already looking forward to the start of the new tradingweek, with Kuroda speaking sunday.....
Will the JPY gap UP or DOWN?

G8 meeting coming up so JPY denominated pairs probably down, to avoid critic from US?

[zentauro67]

Just some technical bullshit. USD seems weakening. CSS 4H. shows a clear slope down. USD Index has a dark cloud candlestick that could be a top reversal signal and RSI shows in daily a clear bearish divergence.

Next week, if USD drops we could see GPB & EUR recover. I´m more bullish with GPB and therefore I could short (CT) EURGBP. AUD is a mystery to me, I´m avoiding it.


A big drop from USD (not probable, but possible) could make a turnaround in the global market and harm some accounts. So, be cautious next week!

I don´t like counter trade, so I´ll try to be disciplined and stay out if retraces suddenly become impulses.

[art]

Holiday in uk and US Monday, so, will be quiter than normal, anyway have a nice weekend

[garyfritz]

Over 90% of my profits came from positions in AUDCAD, AUDCHF, AUDNZD, AUDUSD, and EURAUD, and GBPAUD. I need to see some "normal" market conditions to see how I do then!

Well it only took a week to answer that question. I got my ass kicked all week long, with 6 full losses and one up a few pips.

I was trading stock 10.4 signals with RSI, and letting positions run. When the market was moving that worked fabulously. I gave them room to develop, then trailed stops as they moved. This week that didn't work at all -- with the sideways action, they all hit their SLs.

So my approach does not work in conditions like this. I'll have to decide if I dump it, or try to tell better when the market is going to move. Meanwhile I should start studying Bob's new release.

One of my challenges is my schedule. It's sometimes difficult to check positions more than 2-3x per day. That worked OK when I was jumping onto AUD moves, but not so much this week. I think I should probably follow Bob's advice to take lots of small "klil trades," setting a BE stop as soon as it gets a bit into the green. But this week about half my trades never made it more than 5-10 pips into the green before reversing 50-100 pips. If you set a BE stop when you're 5-10 pips ahead, you'll probably hit the BE stop 90% of the time... Need more study.

[zentauro67]

What To Make Of JPY Bounce? A Macro-Technical Perspective - Citi

http://www.efxnews.com/story/18945/what ... ctive-citi

[nanningbob]

What To Make Of JPY Bounce? A Macro-Technical Perspective - Citi

http://www.efxnews.com/story/18945/what ... ctive-citi

I am seeing a pattern here. Sell the JPY the first 10 days of the month as bond buying happens and 1% more Yen is added to the economy every month. Then the last two weeks buy the JPY because people take profits and businesses are still doing business in Japan. Could be the easiest trade to do or the next 18 months. I like predictability and as it becomes more predictable the swings will be wilder.

[zentauro67]

What To Make Of JPY Bounce? A Macro-Technical Perspective - Citi

http://www.efxnews.com/story/18945/what ... ctive-citi

I am seeing a pattern here. Sell the JPY the first 10 days of the month as bond buying happens and 1% more Yen is added to the economy every month. Then the last two weeks buy the JPY because people take profits and businesses are still doing business in Japan. Could be the easiest trade to do or the next 18 months. I like predictability and as it becomes more predictable the swings will be wilder.

Yes! If you see each month in daily chart, weaks 1&2 are bullish and 3&4 are slightly bearish. I think it was Traderdesk who posted a graphic some weeks ago showing 11th day of the month as the average peak.

[nanningbob]

Over 90% of my profits came from positions in AUDCAD, AUDCHF, AUDNZD, AUDUSD, and EURAUD, and GBPAUD. I need to see some "normal" market conditions to see how I do then!

Well it only took a week to answer that question. I got my ass kicked all week long, with 6 full losses and one up a few pips.

I was trading stock 10.4 signals with RSI, and letting positions run. When the market was moving that worked fabulously. I gave them room to develop, then trailed stops as they moved. This week that didn't work at all -- with the sideways action, they all hit their SLs.

So my approach does not work in conditions like this. I'll have to decide if I dump it, or try to tell better when the market is going to move. Meanwhile I should start studying Bob's new release.

One of my challenges is my schedule. It's sometimes difficult to check positions more than 2-3x per day. That worked OK when I was jumping onto AUD moves, but not so much this week. I think I should probably follow Bob's advice to take lots of small "klil trades," setting a BE stop as soon as it gets a bit into the green. But this week about half my trades never made it more than 5-10 pips into the green before reversing 50-100 pips. If you set a BE stop when you're 5-10 pips ahead, you'll probably hit the BE stop 90% of the time... Need more study.

Actually no. I actually did well with the AUD this week with every single AUD pair going from the pivot to the WS1. I dont know how you could have missed those trades. I have heard this figure used many many times. The markets range 70% of the time and trends 30% of the time. If you only want to trade trends then you are setting your self up for 70% failure rate.

I am a simplistic trader. I just go from line to line entering and taking profits. Whether the market ranges or trend, it does not matter. I just make more when it trends over range trading and I have more losing trades to deal with but overall I end up with more winners than losers. As price goes in my direction I just pocket them into the account. Once in the account I will never lose that profit. Sometimes I get lucky and it will cross two or three lines and I get bigger profits. It does not matter if it enters and then loses because I pocket so many winners the occasional losers dont amount to much as compared to the total picture.

201 winners with an average profit of 23 pips a trade. Going from line to line. or just profiting halfway through a session. I then set up my next trade and see if price crosses the line to go to the next line. I win if the market ranges, I win bigger if the market trends. So I dont have to deal with the idea is the market going to range or trend. I will win either way. Kill the losers quickly if it doesnt look good and hang onto the ones that show promise of going back into the trend.

Basically I ask you this question. How could you have losing trades when going from WP to WS1 happened on every single AUD pair? Not one time did price get anywhere near the 240 line. So there was no chance of a loser. 72 of my 208 winning trades this week were AUD pairs and accounted for 1180 of my 3000+ pips I won this week. I just dont understand when someone says they followed 10.4 rules but lost all week. There were no losing trades out there. I had a good time with it.

[kwchau]

201 winners with an average profit of 23 pips a trade. Going from line to line. or just profiting halfway through a session. I then set up my next trade and see if price crosses the line to go to the next line. I win if the market ranges, I win bigger if the market trends. So I dont have to deal with the idea is the market going to range or trend. I will win either way. Kill the losers quickly if it doesnt look good and hang onto the ones that show promise of going back into the trend.

[/quote]

Hi Bob, when you go from line to line, how do you set your profit target ? Let say you enter two sell pendings, one at WP and one at WMS1, do you set WS1 as the PT for both ? Or do you set WMS1 as PT for the WP pending and WS1 as PT for the WMS1 pending?

Appreciate your enlightenment.