10.4 A Complete System

[Gertje]

Again a ridiculous week, over 7000 pips. DD is way too high as well, left too many JPY trades at last weeks high. Next month high will close these I hope.

JPY made 50% of the pips, other pairs did also well;
EURJPY; 29/0; 895 pips
GBPJPY; 20/0; 587
CHFJPY; 16/0; 407
CADJPY; 13/0; 291
USDJPY; 17/0; 433
USDCHF; 3/0; 84
NZDCHF; 7/0; 310
NZDCAD; 5/1; 80
GBPNZD; 8/0; 594
GBPAUD; 11/0; 665
EURUSD; 6/0; 322
EURAUD; 7/0; 257
AUDUSD; 9/0; 382
AUDNZD; 5/0; 86
AUDCHF; 5/0; 149
AUDCAD; 8/0; 198
AUDJPY; 15/0; 299
NZDJPY; 15/0; 512
GBPCAD; 2/1; -37
NZDCHF; 3/0; 76
EURNZD; 6/0; 431
GBPUSD; 3/0; 134

This is done on a small InstaForex live account, using mini-lots. 0,01 lots per $200,- balance.
This is comparable with 0,01 standardlot per $2.000 balance.

[Staedtler]

Again a ridiculous week, over 7000 pips. DD is way too high as well, left too many JPY trades at last weeks high. Next month high will close these I hope.

This is done on a small InstaForex live account, using mini-lots. 0,01 lots per $200,- balance.
This is comparable with 0,01 standardlot per $2.000 balance.

seriously need to change my trading strategy

[nanningbob]

Again a ridiculous week, over 7000 pips. DD is way too high as well, left too many JPY trades at last weeks high. Next month high will close these I hope.

This is done on a small InstaForex live account, using mini-lots. 0,01 lots per $200,- balance.
This is comparable with 0,01 standardlot per $2.000 balance.

seriously need to change my trading strategy

You have to learn to close trades that just arent going your way. You will have bad trades so learn to close off your bad trades.

[nanningbob]

Once you are no longer afraid to close out a loser or you will ride a losing trade because you know it will be a winner then you can just trade away. Even though my cad/jpy trades are running 2-300 in the negative today. I know I just got to get them safely to the beginning of the month and I will get those back to profit or close them with some winners.

Thank you NB. I have been following your threads for a couple of years now, starting at forex factory. I am now seing the light after the tunnel. If I compare myself to a driver, I can safely say that I now can successfully drive on a highway without crashing.

Borrowing your approach and other contributors in this forum, I came up with a kind of trading that fits my own personality. I hit giving up losses, and there were times that I let my dd run for several months until it reverses even adding trades on the process. With 20+ positions at a given time, with .01 lot (sometimes increasing to .03 ), often I am able to recover my dd with some profits. I don't worry anymore about dd as long as my overall dd will not exceed 10% of my capital, otherwise I am happy chopping my daily projected profit of .0055% of my capital. If it did exceeded, it is time to close some losing positions to protect my capital, and let it run until I am safe again for my daily profit. A demo I opened back in January, I can say that I can double my account in five months. Here is my myfxbook link:

https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/104/499128

My only worry though is about the cost of maintaining long time positions including swap charges that may eat most of my gains. Opening an account with leverage of 1:20 or even lower for long time positions will lower cost of trading. Any advice?

Cheers,

Haggadah

The 10% is a good rule, in fact a great rule. The one thing you can do is learn to use some of your profits to just take out those losing trades especially the long term ones. If some trade has been negative for a couple of weeks it needs to go. For example when I hit June if I still have any negative trades left from May I will either decide I am back into the right direction or they have to go. Last week I averaged 600 pips a day. Well to take 2-300 a day and clean out some bad trades is not that hard to do. For me that 240 line is final line. Once price goes below that I look to start clearing stuff out. Yes I will play the bounce off of the 240 line, which sometimes means price will dip below, but I am not going to let price run on the other side of that line and stay in there.

Another key is percent of account of a trade. Once a trade reaches near that 1% of account lose range I make a clear decision of do I have a good reason to stay in this trade. For example CSS is flat and looking to turn up or has crossed up. Is it still angling down. The most important question is what fundamental is driving this move. We know with aud nzd, Chinese economy has slowed down so no need to be hanging onto any buys.

In the last 3 months, since the beginning of March. I have had 401 losing trades. Of those 401 trades 28 were losers of 1% of my account or more, only 8 were 2% or more and 2 were 3%. Why I let those 2 run that big is a dumb decision. In other words I close out trades long before they get to that 1% mark. In fact 5 of those 8 were gbp/chf. I HATE THE SNB/CHF.

I tried teaching these things in the original book. Not letting trades go past that 1 or 2% losing mark. Hitting 10% DD and dealing with some of your losers is a very good policy. In fact dealing with some at 5% is what I have been doing and that has kept my DD in check.

I just checked, since March I have had -22,857 pips in losses. Egads what a horrible number. I have had 35,872 in winners for a grand total of 13,015 over 12 weeks for an average of 1084 pips a week. Believe me I have never had a run like that before. My account has increased 167% from my original amount that I used in March. What I am hoping is the CSS info will decrease the losing trades to give me greater increases in my account and less DD. So far the last 2 weeks that has proven to be true.

[nanningbob]

What To Make Of JPY Bounce? A Macro-Technical Perspective - Citi

http://www.efxnews.com/story/18945/what ... ctive-citi

I am seeing a pattern here. Sell the JPY the first 10 days of the month as bond buying happens and 1% more Yen is added to the economy every month. Then the last two weeks buy the JPY because people take profits and businesses are still doing business in Japan. Could be the easiest trade to do or the next 18 months. I like predictability and as it becomes more predictable the swings will be wilder.

interesting Bob...
Would you mean that we shouldn't take any long signal on XXX-JPY pairs next week as it's the end of month ? Better to take short signals even if price is above MA240 ?

Go back to my PDF on page 1 post 1 and take trades when the proper signals are given. It will tell you whether to buy or sell. When we get into the first week of June then we will look at Macro Fundamentals of the JPY and look to get back into buying xxx.jpy trades.

[peter mcintyre]

hi bob,
been following your 10x developments from oz for a while and enjoy your style. thanks for
your shared insights, and go you for being willing to champion the rabble. thanks to all your good
friends at steve's house of fun forum, and I hope one day to be able to input something of worth.

For now I focus on entry points, like everyone else I guess.

good luck to you and your family.

[Staedtler]

Again a ridiculous week, over 7000 pips. DD is way too high as well, left too many JPY trades at last weeks high. Next month high will close these I hope.

This is done on a small InstaForex live account, using mini-lots. 0,01 lots per $200,- balance.
This is comparable with 0,01 standardlot per $2.000 balance.

seriously need to change my trading strategy

You have to learn to close trades that just arent going your way. You will have bad trades so learn to close off your bad trades.

well i'm trying to figure out what justifies them going against me.. all the indicators are lined up and yet we have some serious DD.. i get out too early and it moves in my favor. still trying to figure out my niche

[garyfritz]

Actually no. I actually did well with the AUD this week with every single AUD pair going from the pivot to the WS1. I dont know how you could have missed those trades.

It was intentional. I did great riding the big AUD moves in Apr/May, up about 25% in a month. (That's nowhere near what you're doing but I was happy with it for a start.) I was entering with 10.4 RSI signals, assuming the market was running strong so eventually they'd go my way, so I ran with big stops to get them started. Then I trailed the stops and added positions as the opportunities arose.

So I knew I could do well with those monster moves like the AUD. I wanted to see how I'd do with currencies that weren't moving that strongly, so I intentionally avoided all AUD pairs. Without the strong AUD move, I didn't do so well. We don't always have monster moves like the AUD, so I need to learn to survive without them. Or at least I need to figure out which ones aren't moving strongly so I don't try to use the strong-move techniques with them.

Bob, you said 1/3 of your trades were AUD. I can do OK on those and I'm sure I'll improve. So 2/3 of your trades were NOT AUD. Those are the ones I need to figure out. Maybe some more careful reading of the CSS will help.

If it gives me 10 pips by the middle of a session then 10 pips it is. If it gives me 150 pips then I will take it. Of all the things I have read and tried. That is the one that has made me the most profitable.

This is a key concept I need to understand. How do you KNOW if it's going to give you 10 or 150? CSS? If I knew it was only going to give me 10, I wouldn't let it run and have it turn into a loss. Maybe the ones that show strong CSS are the ones that are going to run, so you go for 150 with those? And the ones with weak/middle CSS you just grab little bites?

[TraderDesk]

I always go over my trades that I did the past week. It is a good practice to look at what I did wrong and right as well as why I did it. Doing this every week just made me a better trader as well as smarter on my trades... Simple but very effective...

Concerning drawdown on my real accounts if I have a position or group of positions go above 3% I start to close them. 3% is my hard number. If my DD is over 5% then I hard close everything and start fresh in the new week because I made a serious mistake and need a clear slate to start fresh...

For me trading is about managing risk properly according to my trading plan.

[nanningbob]

I always go over my trades that I did the past week. It is a good practice to look at what I did wrong and right as well as why I did it. Doing this every week just made me a better trader as well as smarter on my trades... Simple but very effective...

Concerning drawdown on my real accounts if I have a position or group of positions go above 3% I start to close them. 3% is my hard number. If my DD is over 5% then I hard close everything and start fresh in the new week because I made a serious mistake and need a clear slate to start fresh...

For me trading is about managing risk properly according to my trading plan.

We all have our levels of tolerance and each one should have their line drawn in the sand. Because I have done counter trading for so many years my tolerance of DD is much higher. Frankly I know how to get out of a jam. However, that 240 line really has helped my DD and then the CSS has helped it even more. The only reason I have gone over 5% now is because I am willing to hang onto some xxx.jpy trades for the first of the month. If I had dumped them all at the 240 line instead of just some I would be under the 5%. Either way I can use some of my winnings to clean them out at anytime.