The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[bluedog23]

Hi all, am I even close on the levels on daily USDCHF, I am discussing this with someone and need a third party perspective please. Thanks, Chris.

usdchf daily levels.jpg

I'm not the best at identifying levels, but here's one possibility.

usd chf daily.png

[cfudge]

Hi all, am I even close on the levels on daily USDCHF, I am discussing this with someone and need a third party perspective please. Thanks, Chris.

usdchf daily levels.jpg

I'm not the best at identifying levels, but here's one possibility.

usd chf daily.png

Hi bluedog, I took my levels from the last weekly/daily low and you seem to have gone back to the last low...this is confusing to me as I thought levels could be assessed from the last low (weekly/daily). Could you explain your levels please as they seem to cover a lot of the time on your daily chart. I like to have this conversation as I feel it is a key to understanding this methodology and I also feel it is an area that lots of us are struggling with. Chris

[kwanann]

this is my take on the usdchf. quiet morning so decided to spend some time marking the charts..


Based on this markup, we are probably waiting for pins to form at the top and then take it down for P3/L3 > consolidation > if it breaks the trendline, down, else up

Looks rather like BARF, but i'm probably wrong

[kwanann]

taking the time to annotate audchf as well.. looks like i'm in deep shit

[cfudge]

Kwanann I am in the same s**t bucket as you with my AUDUSD, I think most people are expecting the Aussie to strengthen...which makes me ask if everyone is long maybe that is why the Fox is short???
Chris

[kwanann]

Well why not, get all the suckers in with their longs, bring it all the way down, then when you give up, the fox buys them all back from you at your loss and bring it up.

For me, since i'm hedging the position, i will sit back and see how this plays out. Based on my markup of the charts, it will go down for another 2 more levels, this is only P2L1. Chances are there will be a violent retrace at the support level (0.921) which should be P3L1, get all the longs in, bring it down further to P3L3 and then bring the whole thing up maybe a month or 2 later

this seems to be also inline with the current state of affairs where AUD is weakening like nobody's business

*Edit: Interesting.. AUDUSD seems to be rallying, USDCHF going down as expected

[cfudge]

I see a few fox tracks patterns on USDJPY, EURUSD, AUDUSD,GOLD,CADCHF,GPBCHF. All have had a sharp push up/down then what looks like a stophunt and are now ranging ready for a move...Chris

Please correct if I am mistaken.

[kwanann]

Just realized i mis marked my charts, AUDCHF is at L3.

Just saw in H4
- W off the LL
- trapping volume.
- BARF(?)

Lifted all my sell positions, added in a hedge position at lowest pin and going to let this ride

(this is on H4, M15 also had its first push)

[cfudge]

Hopefully I have pulled a "CJ" here and can ride this for a while... Still not too late to get in

Chris

gpbaud daily.jpg

[kwanann]

Interesting how an exercise in marking the charts make me see things so much more clearly.

Whilst the effort is there (took me at least half hr each to mark out the levels, pushes, SH, W, M and what not), it lets me see and identify stuff so much more clearly, it is just as CJ said, once you see you cannot unsee.



Thanks so much CJ!