10.4 A Complete System

[art]

morning guys, all you guys who have traded the asian session shorting the aud and nzd have left us no pips to take this morning, boo,hoo, i must learn to put some pending orders on before i go to bed,and hopefully wake up with a nice suprise, the eur usd i jumped in quickly on to grab a few, most of the pairs are at the extreme now, so have to wait for pullback

[TraderDesk]

Look at your account go TD! Nice one

Thanks.... Your account shows intelligent trading and I like that your DD remains low.

Myself I like to stay with a few currencies. I get nervous when I trade with pairs where I am not intimate with their patterns. Instead of leveraging myself over multiple pairs I stick with a few and up the leverage to just them.

[MrLong]

From a purely volume analysis the big boys have been offloading their sells and seems to be converting them all to buys.

On the MN chart however it seems the trend has been broken with a huge pin last month instead of a quite solid candle of the past months

Same like TraderDesk, i expect tonight or latest tomorrow night before something happens. If nothing happens, i might decide to clean out the slate for yen pairs for now

Hi kwanann,

Are you saying the institutions buying yen or xxxjpy pairs ??

Where is Mr Abe, has he gone into hiding ?

That would have been a week last Tuesday.

[fx800]

Might have been a bond buying session just now.

More of gut feel, but it seems they are quite done for now weakening the yen and want to strengthen it, or else those guys just wanna recover their positions.

Either way i'm feeling quite uncomfortable with my all my yen positions and have hedged them all, at least now i know my exact loss and can work out how to recoup them.

Hedging open positions if not too expensive is a good thing to do in my opinion. JPY is confusing traders if you listen to the news coming from the wires. I don't like to listen to the news in these situations but I do listen to price action as that tells me more about the market than any other source.

JPY has not significantly strengthen yet. All it has done is halt the speed at which it was weakening and it looks as GBP wants to strengthen more than JPY even if JPY remains flat. The last time JPY tried to strengthen was end of Feb. beginning of March which failed and that lead to a nice bear move. This time around JPY strength increase has been even more shallow than the last for the moment.

Long-term GBP/JPY is bullish as long as price stays above 140.

Short-term meaning 4 hour I am still bullish but if PA starts to consistently stay below the 240ma I will reverse that bias. For trading with 10.4 the best signal would be PA to go above 240ma and when RSI goes to a low and price is still above 240ma that will be a big buy signal. Right now the market is ranging so 10.4 can send you conflicting signals.

Let's look at a scenerio if bearish bias stays with this pair. I would then start to sell with every sell signal that 10.4 gives me looking for an eventual target of 148 and/or 140 if the former breaks.

Patience will give me the answer to what my new positions will be bias towards bull/bear.

Thanks for your analysis.

GBPJPY has retraced up to trendline.

[spotdespot]

This situation is key for me re. the Yen. Trendline break or not.......

Cheers,
Dave.

[LaHood]

atm it was a really nice week for me and since 3 weeks i use this system (10.5 dp) i made 1600 pips (987 this week). A lot more i have done consistently in the past. I know many of you guys make more but im happy that i was 100% on the right side this week and made profit the last weeks before too.

OPEN 03.06.2013 AUDJPY Short CLOSE 05.062.103 PIPS 179
OPEN 03.06.2013 AUDCHF Short CLOSE 04.06.2013 PIPS 46
OPEN 03.06.2013 EURNZD Long CLOSE 05.06.2013 PIPS 328
OPEN 03.06.2013 EURCAD Long CLOSE 05.06.2013 PIPS 107
OPEN 04.05.2013 EURCAD Long CLOSE 05.06.2013 PIPS 86
OPEN 05.06.2013 EURNZD Long CLOSE 05.06.2013 PIPS 242

So i will look for the rest of the week if price retrace back to red line (i dont think it will) and put my target to the black line as TP. If i dont get signals i wait for the next week for new settings.

cheers
LH

[Gertje]

I took a bigger bite than I could swallow...

Was planning for the JPY to go wild and break new highs, and ended up with some positions.
To get out I need for the following JPY crosses to climb;
AUD 220 pips
CAD 120 pips
CHF 70 pips
EUR 110 pips
GBP 65 pips
NZD 220 pips
USD 150 pips

I'll be a happy camper after that happens, and will stick to straight 10.4/5 after that.
No more grids to enter from for me.....

[pips400]

I took a bigger bite than I could swallow...

Was planning for the JPY to go wild and break new highs, and ended up with some positions.
To get out I need for the following JPY crosses to climb;
AUD 220 pips
CAD 120 pips
CHF 70 pips
EUR 110 pips
GBP 65 pips
NZD 220 pips
USD 150 pips

I'll be a happy camper after that happens, and will stick to straight 10.4/5 after that.
No more grids to enter from for me.....

Thanks for sharing Gertje, it's good for me to know both the ups and the downs to get a balanced perspective and trading strategy. Really hope you get the right opportunity to close.

[forextra]

I took a bigger bite than I could swallow...
Was planning for the JPY to go wild and break new highs, and ended up with some positions.:

For many of us this is borne out of frustration of having no pure 10.4/10.5 trades available. So many tradeable pairs are outside SR1 and SR2 and SR3 in some cases. We all know history tells us that they can't stay out there for ever and so we look for the retraces - and the logical one is JPY. At least that is what they have everyone thinking. And how do we know these retraces are about to happen. We don't!
As an Australian I know our mob are desperate for the AUD to hit 90c. Not sure if they have the power to drive it all the way there but I for one will not be "punting" against it.
So maybe this a time for reflection. And next week when we reset our pivots and our mind is fresh we can do what we have been taught and what we are good at - trading 10.4.

[Nidolap]

I took a bigger bite than I could swallow...
Was planning for the JPY to go wild and break new highs, and ended up with some positions.:

For many of us this is borne out of frustration of having no pure 10.4/10.5 trades available. So many tradeable pairs are outside SR1 and SR2 and SR3 in some cases. We all know history tells us that they can't stay out there for ever and so we look for the retraces - and the logical one is JPY. At least that is what they have everyone thinking. And how do we know these retraces are about to happen. We don't!
As an Australian I know our mob are desperate for the AUD to hit 90c. Not sure if they have the power to drive it all the way there but I for one will not be "punting" against it.
So maybe this a time for reflection. And next week when we reset our pivots and our mind is fresh we can do what we have been taught and what we are good at - trading 10.4.

Agree! This week has been pretty nice with 10.4 trades, I have made 824 points (demo acct) and it was my best trading week ever. Only took by the book trades and all on Monday/Tuesday, today and yesterday very few signal and lot's of fundamental news so I'll stay quiet until next week.

The only excpetion is the USDCAD wich seems to be finally moving north after today's data....hope it does.

Regards!