10.4 A Complete System

[nanningbob]

In my limited experience trading is about having the ability to trade with an edge over the long term. This calls for nerves of steel especially in high DD scenarios or a run of losses, but you play the odds over many many trades with tight MM and trade the plan. Tight MM keeps us in the game long enough to get the long term profitability. The edge with 104 is great and I am using it myself (and based on classic price action, buy the dips, sell the rallies), but there are other edges, many in fact, lots of different ways to trade in forex all with an edge. It seems to this noob, that even more important than the edge is the personal discipline and mentality to put that edge to work and succeed. I am trying to keep forex purely mechanical/business and not personal, not to feel the pressure to trade or not to trade, but simply follow rules which were carefully thought through well in advance, this calls for a cool head and discipline, without these it doesn't matter what edge you trade you won't succeed in the long term. I was talking to someone a few months ago about my trading journey to date and told them, I realise that in the final analysis the weak chain in the link is me. If I'm losing then before I throw out the strategy and look for the next, I need to recognise am I the problem here? There's no room for pride or being defensive but I have to be brutally honest with myself all the time, otherwise I know that I can deceive myself or blame the strategy, this is not the case. That's why I'm placing more emphasis on the ability to trade the edge rather than the edge itself.

Good post and I concur. Trade and move on, win or lose.

[Pipstubborn]

In my limited experience trading is about having the ability to trade with an edge over the long term. This calls for nerves of steel especially in high DD scenarios or a run of losses, but you play the odds over many many trades with tight MM and trade the plan. Tight MM keeps us in the game long enough to get the long term profitability. The edge with 104 is great and I am using it myself (and based on classic price action, buy the dips, sell the rallies), but there are other edges, many in fact, lots of different ways to trade in forex all with an edge. It seems to this noob, that even more important than the edge is the personal discipline and mentality to put that edge to work and succeed. I am trying to keep forex purely mechanical/business and not personal, not to feel the pressure to trade or not to trade, but simply follow rules which were carefully thought through well in advance, this calls for a cool head and discipline, without these it doesn't matter what edge you trade you won't succeed in the long term. I was talking to someone a few months ago about my trading journey to date and told them, I realise that in the final analysis the weak chain in the link is me. If I'm losing then before I throw out the strategy and look for the next, I need to recognise am I the problem here? There's no room for pride or being defensive but I have to be brutally honest with myself all the time, otherwise I know that I can deceive myself or blame the strategy, this is not the case. That's why I'm placing more emphasis on the ability to trade the edge rather than the edge itself.

Good post and I concur. Trade and move on, win or lose.

Bob, trading strictly with 10.4 but been very carefull of a posible Yen reverse at any time I made 2558 pips an 18% increase of my acc for the week. Again, thanks a lot

[peranders]

Expect more of what happened with JPY this week.

http://www.forexcrunch.com/central-bank ... x-markets/

[spillini]

Potential trade possibilities. Depending on gaps.

#1) EUR/CAD Long
#2) USD/CHF Short
#3) GBP/CHF Short
#4) CAD/JPY Short

Secondary

#5) GBP/CAD Long
#6) EUR/JPY Short
#7) GBP/JPY Short

Please comment, Jim

[SteveHopwood]

Your system that you have skilfully crafted together did not fail, it worked very well, people who got took out, were not trading your system, they were massively over exposed with gut feeling.

Andy

Absolutely spot on Andy.
Sure we may not get some of those massive moves but we sure as heck won't get taken out by them either. And we will be there to trade another day - something I wasn't able to do a few years back!
Allan

Yep. Me too.

Cheers Bob. Nice one.

[MrLong]

Potential trade possibilities. Depending on gaps.

#1) EUR/CAD Long
#2) USD/CHF Short
#3) GBP/CHF Short
#4) CAD/JPY Short

Secondary

#5) GBP/CAD Long
#6) EUR/JPY Short
#7) GBP/JPY Short

Please comment, Jim

Again on your secondary, you are buying GBP and then selling GBP.

[f451]

Bob,

SweetSpotsGOLD doesn't have a bar look back. it uses a timer to avoid re-drawing the lines too often. Should already be low RAM usage.

However, use this version - I have modified it to correctly identify pips and digits regardless or pair (e.g. JPY pairs) or broker digits. The older version was badly broken on some charts.

cheers
f451

SweetSpotsGOLD.mq4

??????????????????????? OK on the bar back but a timer. 1.2300 should always be the same line unless it has to move if the screen moves? Do I understand that correctly?

Yep. It redraws once ever timer seconds in case new bars have moved the screen, or price has moved to a new level where there aren't any lines drawn. Probably not the most effective way to do it. If it's still using too much RAM on your test box send me a PM and I'll fix it up for you.

[nanningbob]

Expect more of what happened with JPY this week.

http://www.forexcrunch.com/central-bank ... x-markets/

Very good article except it left out one major problem the Japanese face. Massive debt. To finance their govt. spending about half comes from tax receipts and half comes from borrowing. Because of deflation Japan's tax receipts are the same as they were in 1985. In other words they have not experienced any real growth for over 20 years. Yet they kept on borrowing hoping things would change. For 2 decades they havent. Since the Japanese were great savers for their retirement there was always a supply of money to borrow in house. The Japanese did not have to borrow money from outside their country. So now that they have borrowed almost all their people's savings, there is no more to borrow. No foreign markets are going to lend to a country that is 240% debt to gdp ratio and at present borrows almost 50% of its govt. budget. The phrase they are backed into a proverbial corner is understating the case. There are no other alternatives waiting for them. They either default on their loans which means almost everyone's savings in Japan is wiped out thereby povertizing the entire country OR depreciate the currency and pay every one back with deflated YEN and bring down its debt to GDP ratio. Those are its choices. All this other stuff that writers are writing are meaningless. Japan cannot have an appreciating YEN. It either depreciates with all the consequences that goes with that or it bankrupts and starts over. If you think that wont upset the markets you are high. Imagine what would happen if all of a sudden the world's 3rd largest economy just disappears into oblivion. My respects to the writer, he has done his homework and everything he says is true. However, he left one little detail out and that is the one that is driving this whole story. Japan is at the end of the debt super cycle and has nowhere to go anymore. Greece came to its end but was given more money to borrow. So they kicked the can down the road one more time. Japan is out of cans.

[bluedog23]

Expect more of what happened with JPY this week.

http://www.forexcrunch.com/central-bank ... x-markets/

Very good article except it left out one major problem the Japanese face. Massive debt. To finance their govt. spending about half comes from tax receipts and half comes from borrowing. Because of deflation Japan's tax receipts are the same as they were in 1985. In other words they have not experienced any real growth for over 20 years. Yet they kept on borrowing hoping things would change. For 2 decades they havent. Since the Japanese were great savers for their retirement there was always a supply of money to borrow in house. The Japanese did not have to borrow money from outside their country. So now that they have borrowed almost all their people's savings, there is no more to borrow. No foreign markets are going to lend to a country that is 240% debt to gdp ratio and at present borrows almost 50% of its govt. budget. The phrase they are backed into a proverbial corner is understating the case. There are no other alternatives waiting for them. They either default on their loans which means almost everyone's savings in Japan is wiped out thereby povertizing the entire country OR depreciate the currency and pay every one back with deflated YEN and bring down its debt to GDP ratio. Those are its choices. All this other stuff that writers are writing are meaningless. Japan cannot have an appreciating YEN. It either depreciates with all the consequences that goes with that or it bankrupts and starts over. If you think that wont upset the markets you are high. Imagine what would happen if all of a sudden the world's 3rd largest economy just disappears into oblivion. My respects to the writer, he has done his homework and everything he says is true. However, he left one little detail out and that is the one that is driving this whole story. Japan is at the end of the debt super cycle and has nowhere to go anymore. Greece came to its end but was given more money to borrow. So they kicked the can down the road one more time. Japan is out of cans.

Bob,

Great insight into the problems faced by Japan. Your writing paints such a clear picture. Japan does not have the EU to bail them out.

Thanks

[Ingot54]

Expect more of what happened with JPY this week.

http://www.forexcrunch.com/central-bank ... x-markets/

Very good article except it left out one major problem the Japanese face. Massive debt. To finance their govt. spending about half comes from tax receipts and half comes from borrowing. Because of deflation Japan's tax receipts are the same as they were in 1985. In other words they have not experienced any real growth for over 20 years. Yet they kept on borrowing hoping things would change. For 2 decades they havent. Since the Japanese were great savers for their retirement there was always a supply of money to borrow in house. The Japanese did not have to borrow money from outside their country. So now that they have borrowed almost all their people's savings, there is no more to borrow. No foreign markets are going to lend to a country that is 240% debt to gdp ratio and at present borrows almost 50% of its govt. budget. The phrase they are backed into a proverbial corner is understating the case. There are no other alternatives waiting for them. They either default on their loans which means almost everyone's savings in Japan is wiped out thereby povertizing the entire country OR depreciate the currency and pay every one back with deflated YEN and bring down its debt to GDP ratio. Those are its choices. All this other stuff that writers are writing are meaningless. Japan cannot have an appreciating YEN. It either depreciates with all the consequences that goes with that or it bankrupts and starts over. If you think that wont upset the markets you are high. Imagine what would happen if all of a sudden the world's 3rd largest economy just disappears into oblivion. My respects to the writer, he has done his homework and everything he says is true. However, he left one little detail out and that is the one that is driving this whole story. Japan is at the end of the debt super cycle and has nowhere to go anymore. Greece came to its end but was given more money to borrow. So they kicked the can down the road one more time. Japan is out of cans.

Agree totally with your assessment of that article, Bob.

But there is more to this story than has been publicly revealed, I think.

When BOJ announced its plans to weaken the YEN, (at the behest of politicians Abe and Kuroda) all was good. I remember the euphoria on this thread about how the YEN was going to trend for three years.

It hasn't, and I have read more than a few posts about that illusion, and the damage done to traders who expected the utopian trend to continue. I was one who bought that illusion, and paid for it.

Since then I listen to nothing ANYONE says about Macroeconomics - here on this thread, with respect, or anywhere else in the world. And my trading has been blessed and flourishing ever since.

The only macroeconomics I want to read, is the 2MA on the monthly chart ie the 240MA on the 4H chart. The rest of it is hot air ... words ... padding for journos who need to justify their ill-informed positions.

Remember how many times did the BOJ reiterate their policy of weakening the YEN?
Yet the net result has only been a strengthening!!!

DON"T TRUST the written word on macroeconomics. They are lies intended to misinform.

Remember also ... the G20 meetings were expected to chastise the Japanese for their weakening policy. Instead - what did we hear - Statements supporting and justifying the policy "because it was only going to benefit Japan DOMESTICALLY! That was the overt position for the public chickens!

Bulldust!! "Domestically" has nothing to do with the international exchange rates we deal in - it was euphemistically assembled for consumption by a public eager to hear that the new and wonderful trends in the xxxJPOY would continue into the sunset.

Oh yes - they tied it to "GDP" ... smoke and mirrors!

But covertly ... covertly ... you can bet that the G20, the World bank and the IMF delivered such a stinging slap on the wrist ... no ... the face ... to BOJ and their cohorts ... that the YEN has been strengthening ever since.

So please forgive my taking an ostensibly opposite tack to the written intentions of Central Banks to anything! They can't ... and they won't ... do what they say.

Simply forget about Internet links to articles about it all, and get on with the 10.4/10.5 V. 5.01.

Is there anything wrong with that? If we keep on following news articles, we have too much time on our hands.