10.4 A Complete System

[nanningbob]

John Maudin writes in his latest letter:

The main obsession in the US seems to be whether and when the Fed may stop its current round of massive QE. Every hint of "tapering" spurs volatility in the markets. If you are a forex (foreign exchange) trader, you are left breathless at the recent moves, sometimes a whole order of magnitude (10 times) larger than average. Get used to it: currency wars are likely to be a feature of the landscape for the rest of this decade. (My friend Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, corrected me on stage recently, telling me the polite term du jour is "currency tensions." And compared to what I think is coming, we really are just in the tension phase. Later we will get to skirmishes and then full-fledged currency combat.)

Wondering here??? Will WS2 and WR2 be our new profit targets?

[kwanann]

Ah that examples why of recent the moves are so much more than usual, thanks bob!

[aSushiRoll]

John Maudin writes in his latest letter:

The main obsession in the US seems to be whether and when the Fed may stop its current round of massive QE. Every hint of "tapering" spurs volatility in the markets. If you are a forex (foreign exchange) trader, you are left breathless at the recent moves, sometimes a whole order of magnitude (10 times) larger than average. Get used to it: currency wars are likely to be a feature of the landscape for the rest of this decade. (My friend Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, corrected me on stage recently, telling me the polite term du jour is "currency tensions." And compared to what I think is coming, we really are just in the tension phase. Later we will get to skirmishes and then full-fledged currency combat.)

Wondering here??? Will WS2 and WR2 be our new profit targets?

[edit] n/m thought I didn't get it in my mail, but got it a bit later (and saw it on his site).

Thanks.

[kwanann]

hmm can share the link?

[TraderDesk]

The idea that volatility should increase dramatically makes me salivate like a dog to a juicy steak. If the potential price movement extends to 4 hour charts money will be made for us traders... Typically summer months become quieter but this year could go against the norm.

I want to be in the arena when the games begin

[zentauro67]

Currency wars could be a great scenario for a trend following system as 10.4

A world of big spikes and violent moves surely will force us to improve SL strategies. Also, we should improve our ability to spot tournarounds and reversals quickly. Some cycle identifier could help. Anyway, 240 is enough to take the right decisions.

Most of trend following systems love harmonic swings, smooth and round 38, 61 fibo retraces built slowly. Likely we´ll see big corrections built on momentum (just remember recent JPY behaviour) and sometimes it could be necessary agressive entries just for not losing the best part of the move.

Most difficult part of the job for me in this great system is facing 'dubious' retraces that could be the beginning of a reversal. You can hear here and there different theories about that (If it goes beyond 61 fibo is no longer retrace..., or if it breaches 100 sma could be a reversal, etc) but in all cases is too late and you have lost money. Here goes my two cents for a Currency War scenario: learn to spot strength. If a retrace shows big momentum from the beginning, if you see two or three 'big candles' in its root, do not rush to treat it as a normal retrace at the first weakness signal (that weakness could be just the usual profit taking routine). I made this mistake with JPY pairs last month (expecting fundamentals...). The strength of the drop was quite clear from the beggining in the top, but I re-entered at the first weakness signal, as if I were trading smooth retraces...

Another JPY important lesson is that "trade what you see not what you expect" insight. (Sorry for bringing up here a FF thread reminder) Too much speculation on USD index and central banks gossip these days. As we all knew from the beginning, you only can trust the charts.

This is a war we must all enlist as volunteers. Best of the war is to have comrades near and in this thread you find the best. Not to mention, our great general in command, Bob.

gbpusd.jpg

[peranders]

@kwanann
It is his newsletter, you can subscribe at his website.
www.mauldineconomics.com

There's a good movie to watch there also
http://inn.mauldineconomics.com/event/

[Aus67]

John Maudin writes in his latest letter:

The main obsession in the US seems to be whether and when the Fed may stop its current round of massive QE. Every hint of "tapering" spurs volatility in the markets. If you are a forex (foreign exchange) trader, you are left breathless at the recent moves, sometimes a whole order of magnitude (10 times) larger than average. Get used to it: currency wars are likely to be a feature of the landscape for the rest of this decade. (My friend Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, corrected me on stage recently, telling me the polite term du jour is "currency tensions." And compared to what I think is coming, we really are just in the tension phase. Later we will get to skirmishes and then full-fledged currency combat.)

Wondering here??? Will WS2 and WR2 be our new profit targets?

Makes one wonder what the landscape will look like after this has played out!

thanks for the info Bob!

[Ingot54]

It is his newsletter, you can subscribe at his website.
http://www.mauldineconomics.com

There's a good movie to watch there also
http://inn.mauldineconomics.com/event/

Subscribed ... and bookmarked movie link.

Thank you Peranders

[thelearner]

Had triggered Buy EU @DP, Buy EURCAD @WP, SELL UCHF@DP all based on RSI pinned and CSSH1 converging.