10.4 A Complete System

[cmeade2]

I really haven't enjoyed the experience, but I am pretty confident that they will come back.

Not sure where the "lessons learned" are.

Massive back ups in what looked like a bunch of great 10.4 trades in EurAud, AudChf, AudUsd, EurNzd GbpNzd, NzdChf and NzdCad

Still holding on hoping they will pull through

Similar - I'm in AUDCAD, AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, NZDUSD - all peeked me in and then went the other way. EURNZD hit SL within 4 hours. Otherwise hanging in there with the rest. My SL's are at the last swing highs and lows. I'll be leaving them there and see what happens.

[sponn]

Nice spread on jpy... 60-70 pips... YES on Cowboy IBFX broker !

[kwanann]

that's exactly the reason why I don't like to put so many of the same eggs in a basket. Remember what happened to your account and yen pairs in the beginning of the month..

While everyone has milked countless % off aud. unless you are like jem with a fixed 2%dd max, chances are you will be looking at returnsome more than 2% back..

[camelx0]

I'm very cautious at the moment with so many pairs sneaking up on the 240 line. Also had some bad luck with AUD pairs not going the right way but at least got the YEN ones correct. I agree to not over invest in too many of the same currency - I used to do that though but now the CSS is my saviour. I use it to pick the best 1 or 2 out of the bunch if they are all triggered.

I need to look timing the exit better and will again look at the ATR as trailing (with the MPTM). The profit/loss ratio is my next frontier to improve.

[Ingot54]

This seems to have slipped under the radar ... but it is the most important news to break in years.
The financial calendars rated it as only "low impact!"

Tut tut!

This morning ... Aussie time ... the BOJ released their Monthly report on Corporate Services price Index.

So what?

Just this: the result was +.3 : (read it as inflationary)

"It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
When corporations pay more for services the
higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer."

There has not been a positive number since before 2010.
There have been 2 neutral reports:
May 2012
Feb 2013

Does this signal a watershed in deflation/inflation in Japan?

I am thinking that it does. We may not be getting the weakening the BOJ desires ... but that's not entirely their fault. The BOJ policy has been covertly blocked by the G20.

The Japanese are well-known for their innovation these days, and business acumen.

I would say if they want inflation, they will get it.

Let's see what the G20 are going to do about that. They can stop the BOJ from easing ... ie selling the YEN ... but I think the Japanese have beaten them to the punch in other ways, and will succeed in their financial goals.

People love a leader ... can Abe and Kuroda lead the world out of this, despite the shackles of the IMF, World Bank and G20 policies?

Please resume normal transmission. A strong YEN and inflation? Heavensent for Japan!

[pips400]

Okay after getting stung over the last couple of days, even though there were a lot of classic setups, with WP crosses, RSI pinned etc, still got too many losers - the missing piece for me was the CSS info page, which until now I haven't really been including, but in times of ranging/changing markets like we have at the moment, it could save a whole lot of pain. So I've put together a simple calculator in excel that tells me what the trade bias is for a pair depending upon the CSS readings on the info page. It's not necessary because you can figure it out easy enough, but I still find it useful, so I've uploaded here if case anyone else wants it. You just enter up, down or flat for each currency and the calculator will give you the bias for the 28 pairs.

Pips 400

Edit: I ought to add how I use the CSS Info. For me, I'm not so interested in where the line is or at what level, what interests me is whether the line is moving up, moving down or is relatively flat. If price is angling upwards, even though it's below 0 I call this going Up, if price is above 0 put angling downwards then I call this going down. So on the spreadsheet when I enter up, I mean prices is angling upwards regardless of what level it is at, and vice versa for going down.

[Ingot54]

Heads up:

According to the news release for the GBP :

During these hearings the BOE Governor and
several MPC members testify on inflation and
the economic outlook before Parliament's
Treasury Committee. The hearings are a few
hours in length and can create market volatility
for the duration. Especially noted are the direct
comments made about the currency markets.

BOE MPC members vote on where to set the
nation's key interest rates and their public
engagements are often used to drop subtle
clues regarding future monetary policy.

Essentially we need to be on guard for the next trading period as market action does not have any regard for 10.4's or 10.5's during such things. Nor does it have any regard for price Action, foxes or the stars!

Beware ... and be aware.

As for me, I will stand aside for a few hours.

[fire580]

Thanks pips400.... very nice

[aSushiRoll]

Edit: I ought to add how I use the CSS Info. For me, I'm not so interested in where the line is or at what level, what interests me is whether the line is moving up, moving down or is relatively flat. If price is angling upwards, even though it's below 0 I call this going Up, if price is above 0 put angling downwards then I call this going down. So on the spreadsheet when I enter up, I mean prices is angling upwards regardless of what level it is at, and vice versa for going down.

Because I'm a beginner with 10.5 and there are people here with far more experience, please correct me if I'm wrong.

But I agree with you, it's not so much red bar/green bar I THINK it's more if the lines are converging or diverging what's important. so < or > if you catch my drift.
If CSS lines are diverging < with the bar being green price is going up,
if they're converging > with bar green price is going down
diverging bar red price is going down
converging bar red price is going up

Perhaps it's an idea to rewrite the indicator to try this out? Perhaps I'm simply wrong Please share your views

[edit] I think Baluda already made something like this in his CSS diff http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... f=45&t=629

[Ingot54]

... So I've put together a simple calculator in excel that tells me what the trade bias is for a pair depending upon the CSS readings on the info page ....You just enter up, down or flat for each currency and the calculator will give you the bias for the 28 pairs.

Pips 400

Edit: I ought to add how I use the CSS Info. For me, I'm not so interested in where the line is or at what level, what interests me is whether the line is moving up, moving down or is relatively flat. If price is angling upwards, even though it's below 0 I call this going Up, if price is above 0 put angling downwards then I call this going down. So on the spreadsheet when I enter up, I mean prices is angling upwards regardless of what level it is at, and vice versa for going down.

I d/l your Excel file, Pips400 - very user-friendly.

If I may ... the way you intend it to be used ... for bias only ... is probably its best use.
I will do further testing tomorrow during the Asian session.

But I felt I should throw into the ring my own views of using the CSS.

The way you describe using the CSS is quite an aggressive approach ... quite aggressive. I'm not sure if you realise that.

The lines can be rising for a VERY long time (or falling), without ever rising or falling, and without getting closer to the zero line, or crossing any other currency line. The AUD was a classic example of it when it was at the extremes ... for a couple of weeks it was simply right at the top ... or at the bottom. The trends were great. The strength (bias) of the lines increases proportionally to the distance away from the zero line ... distance being a relative entity.

How can this be? Because the other currencies actually "push" the entire line away from the zero line, without actually changing the direction it is "pointing." I may be wrong about that.

Can I just add my own view ... and that is ... there are 2 things about the CSS that truly make a difference - an ACTIVE difference to the speed and direction the pairs move:

1) The crossing of the zero line by any currency
2) The crossing of another currency line, by any other.

If you observe what happens when these ACTUALLY cross something, then you will be hooked on that aspect of CSS. However, I still like the idea of estimating bias. If you can find one that is long and one that is short ... according to bias ... then you should have yourself a nice trade.

Have to say I appreciate your great contributions to this forum.

Thank you.