The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Captain Jack]

For those who STILL believe that an automated trading system, indicator or for that matter a manual trading system based on mechanical, technical or fundamental means is going to lead you down the Yellow Brick Road, I give you the Fox at play!

http://managed-futures-blog.attaincapit ... ionl-style

My honest suggestion to 96% of the retail traders out there is to quit 'trying" to trade Forex because the only thing you are going to find is a flying Fox monkey who's going to drop you on your head from 500' up!

This is why I take "what's given"....

CJ

[kwanann]

Agreed, take what is given.

Most times it pays off NOT to be greedy and aim for the moon

[dentiok]

Let me try to summarize a bit. This is a mix between CJ method & Steve Mauro. Used on M15.

1. Grab the asian range. Generally between 15 to 50 pips. This is the accumulation phase on low volumes.
2. Around London open, mark the asian hi/low range.
3. Wait for the asian breakout, no matter if it is to the upside or downside, you don't care
4. After 30 to 90min, mark the LOD/HOD (low of the day, high of the day).
5. Price will retrace a bit, now look for "M" or "W" patterns.
6. Enter short at the top, long at the bottom at the second retest. Look also for patterns like pin's, rrt, hanging man, etc in the M & W zones.
7. If all is ok you should be in profit.
8. Breakout traders are trapped in their breakout thing. They are now hoping the price will go at least at their entry price to exit at BE ... but price is now ranging, they are stuck ...
9. One hour after, the trend will resume and the price will be begin to drift in your direction forcing breakout trader to close their order, this will also accelerate the move.

Be careful between London & NY close, there should be a pullback if the range was big. This keeps a bit a the volume and money for the next day.
So, take your short position from the HOD and long position from the LOD after a M or W pattern. Stoploss should be above the highs or lows (give enough room to avoid getting trapped by broker spread widening)

If the price sky rocket to the upside or downside & you don't see a pullback nor a M or W after the breakout, too bad for that one. Go hunting on another pair =)

Well done Lio. Your write up might make it easier for others to see this on the 15M time frame. I'll add a couple things.

Ideal Asian session is 40-50 pips. This is usually dependent on the volatility of the pair. Some may range 25-30...but look for around 40 pip range.

After the range is set, the next thing they do is expand the range. This is what trips the breakout trades.

After this range expansion, price should move 25-50 pips above or below the Asian range, this is where the stop hunt occurs. The stop hunt takes out the breakout traders. This move to the stop hunt may happen over 3 candles or 3 "pushes". This is where some confusion comes in. The 3 push move to the stop hunt is different than the 3 pushes of the actual move itself.

Once the stop hunt is complete, look for the "W", "M" or straight away moves. These moves may have 3 levels up or down.

Trades over...look for another.

You can have a 3 day cycle of either rising or falling price. After this 3 day cycle completes, you may have a reversal into another 3 day cycle.

Many times, price will reverse in or near the NY session. This is the last session of the day and week. When price is rising, it must reverse and drop for them to take their profit. When price is falling, it must reverse and rise for them to take their profit.

These observations apply to the 15M time frame.

HOWEVER, these same patterns apply to higher time frames. Learn them and use them as a guide for price direction as well as longer term trades.

You might not want to set in front of the computer and wait for these trades to hit on the 15M time frame. That's fine. Look for them on the 1H, 4H and D1 time frames. They are there and you can take low maintenance, long term trades based on these patterns.

Take a look at the chart Lio used as an example....it's a 15M chart. Compare it to the one I add here.

A light should have just come on for you!

CJ

A question apropos of this post. In large TF as H1, H4 and D1, what parameter sets the range and extended range? applies the concept? thanks

[kwanann]

Look at gbpjpy on h4 for the past few days, notice that it is in a tight range with price almost going nowhere. Ten the last few candles had a stop hunt low, then high and everything just went crashing down

[peranders]

Here's the EURGBP daily chart. it has an almost completed M in the end, it has BARF pattern. A larger M forming in basically all the chart. Weekly chart is painting RR. On 15m we had a completed M yesterday a big drop today to weekly support 1. I think long term looks very bearish for the pair what is your take on this?

[kwanann]

Your barf is kind of in the wrong place..

I was lucky got in at the top of the m, going to let it ride thru the 3 pushes and 3 levels see where they go

[peranders]

@kwanann

But you agree, long term bias seems very bearish?

[kwanann]

Until i see otherwise e.g a w formation, yes

[xrismak]

Yeap 50 Points 1.png

Agreed, take what is given.

Most times it pays off NOT to be greedy and aim for the moon

Kwannan,

Yeap, you are Right..... Now I am doing the M15 like you and Taking What the Fox Throws up.... No Greed.


Happy Trading Y'all

xrismak

[ciliano]

Could be wrong since I am an amateur at this but check it out.

GBPUSD seems to be making an "M" on the H1 and pinning on the D1. What do you all think?

Edit: bought on demo at 1.4864(6)