10.4 A Complete System

[peranders]

@Bob
They are playin Monopoly with real peoples lives.
Some central bank guy saying something (doesn't even have to have substance) and move the market much more than real tangible data. Average Joe ends up not having food on his table because he lost his job. This was part of what Ron Paul and the tea party movement was wanting to change.

[Pedigree]

QUOTE : I'm just not sure that this accounts for the aggressive moves we saw.

No one will ever know why the market moved so sharply after the news. However, that is different from saying the market expected a rate cut rather than a rate rise and why did the GBP fall rather than doing the opposite. Do your research before posting please.

I will do better than that. I shall henceforth desist from any comment on fundamentals because, as I said earlier, I cannot justify any time spent on them.

I, for one, will stand aside during high impact news because you never know which way the market will react to a partiular news item.

Maybe that's why I described attempts to explain them away as "irrational and half-baked". I wish I could say that in all of this anything has been learnt save that the ways of the market remain "inscrutable" to anyone who still chooses to see them as such.

[McNish]

Hello all, my bad, joining after quite some time. Missed so much action in the past i see.

..., The greatest frustration with Forex now with me is all my big losses in the last two months have come off of DragonHead, King K, and now Prince C going blah blah blah.

This surely is a pattern to watch out for specially if one is trading off a system and one's experience.

A computer can bundle..., Run all sells first and then the buys or run all buys first and then the sells..., That is what is going to make Forex trading even more difficult.

This is news to me. This is going to make it painful to be on the wrong side, so we better learn to not end up on that side.

We maybe kissing our freedom and democracy good bye with the power to control the economy to such a few small group of people who we did not elect or get to choose to be our leaders.

This has been echoed a few times and it make one scared for sure.

Cheers,

[Zennor]

Hi Guys,

I've been having a play with Pips 400 CSS Assistant and came up with an idea to see what happens when you get a correlation between the Daily and 4H readings. So at 12:00 GMT today I put the figures in the Assistant and placed arrows on the charts of where there was a correlation.

Some interesting results but please bear in mind this is from a very SMALL sample but suffice to say that of the 12 correlations I have charts for 11 of them and ALL went in the indicated direction and had I taken the trades I would have made well over 1000 pips today.

I have posted 5 examples but all the other charts look very similar as you will notice if you take a look.

The arrow on the charts indicate the time 12:00 that the trades would have been taken at the opening of that bar.

Early days but a promising start.

NzdChf has a red bar but the correlation is LONG, a mistake but I don't have this pair on my charts so I have no idea how this fared. But the 11 of the 12 that I do have all made between 80 - 380 pips for well over a thousand pips. The GbpNzd showing the greatest profit of just over 380 pips.

The surprising thing that I noticed is that all the previous bars prior to the Arrow bar showed clearly the direction and the INFO page with the CSS Assistant together picked these out rather well.

However I must stress that this is a very small sample and much more testing is needed before any money gets thrown at this.

[SWG123]

Hi Guys,
However I must stress that this is a very small sample and much more testing is needed before any money gets thrown at this.

An appropriate caution - I tried something similar last week. The results were disastrous.

[hammondnz]

Hi all

Just following on and to show how fickle the market can be when a central bank head says as Bob say's "blah blah blah".

Read this:

"The deputy governor of the Reserve Bank says a comment from governor Glenn Stevens that caused the Australian dollar to fall to a three-year low was a lighthearted remark.

Mr Stevens told a business function on Wednesday that the RBA had deliberated for "a very long time" before deciding to leave the cash rate at its record low of 2.75 per cent on Tuesday.

The unscripted comment sent the Australian dollar below 91 US cents and to its lowest level since September 2010.

Speaking to a business forum in Sydney on Thursday, deputy governor Phillip Lowe said Mr Stevens' comment was not intended to cause such a reaction.

"I can confirm that the board did deliberate for a very long time," Dr Lowe said.

"I can also confirm for you that it always deliberates for a very long time.

"The governor's remarks were at the beginning of his speech, they were meant to be a lighthearted remark after what he reports to me was a very lighthearted introduction.

"Some people in the financial markets and perhaps the press have misinterpreted the intention of those remarks."

The Australian dollar recovered on Wednesday, and was worth 91.26 US cents at 1330 AEST."

Best regards

Graham

[McNish]

..., placed arrows on the charts of where there was a correlation.

Hi there, nice try.
But you've got to see the flaw in this as swg123 points out.

The H4 candle on which you have marked the arrows, the arrow itself will not form as soon as the bar opens. If there is such kind of momentum in the market as you have shown in your charts, most of the time when the arrow appears early in the bar, the price is already on top or bottom as the case may be. So if you have caught 12 such moves, i don't think more than 4 will be valid in live market. Retrospective analysis can be very dangerous sometimes.

Do let me know more, Cheers

[Zennor]

An appropriate caution - I tried something similar last week. The results were disastrous.

Hi there, nice try.
But you've got to see the flaw in this as swg123 points out.

The H4 candle on which you have marked the arrows, the arrow itself will not form as soon as the bar opens. If there is such kind of momentum in the market as you have shown in your charts, most of the time when the arrow appears early in the bar, the price is already on top or bottom as the case may be. So if you have caught 12 such moves, i don't think more than 4 will be valid in live market. Retrospective analysis can be very dangerous sometimes.

Do let me know more, Cheers

Thanks guys, I'll keep an eye on this for a while to see how it pans out.

[TraderDesk]

Hi everyone,

Just throwing my two cents in the pile. I really don't care for news in my trading decisions except in the sense will there be increase volatility or is there a time pattern that I can take advantage of.

Markets will move whether to real news or perceive but ultimately false news. I am not an oracle nor do I delude myself that I can have that power.

If a market move i.e. price movement occurs contrary to my set up and is against me I take the loss and if it works for me I celebrate by buying my family a new vacation somewhere.

What I do prepare for is capital preservation when such spikes do occur and ways I can make money on the retracement.

I do not care in 99% cases what makes it move as I am NOT in a position to have direct and personal access to what makes the market move...

The 1% I do see but that is when I am trading on the tick level and actually see a bot or algorithm effecting the orderbook...

I will sum it up and like always I speak for my trading plan. I trade my strategy knowing the all influence including short, medium and long-term news will at some point and time be reflect in price movement.

[zentauro67]

USD Index monthly chart (showing a decade). Trendline suggests a big turnaround could happen next month. Be cautious milking dollar strength. Some room yet to play the game, but if trendline is respected we could see very bad news coming for USA economy at the end of the summer. EURUSD/GBPUSD could be near from bottom now.

Screenshot - 05_07_2013 , 15_13_18.jpg