Traderdesk journal

[TraderDesk]

July 2 2013:

GBP/JPY has on the daily chart come right up to the HA line. When price movement is within this area a bit of tugging can occur before a break or a bounce will occur.

For a break of this line to occur and be sustain I would like to see GBP/USD start to become bullish on the hourly chart. Last several days it has been languishing as if waiting for a kick. It is still in the lower end of the daily channel.

USD/JPY is bias on the daily chart as bullish but is overbought. Need to keep an eye on a possible correction on price even if it is a small one. If it does start to correct and GBP/USD starts to climb then I can see GBP/JPY resume it's bull climb.

Now I must consider an opposite potential scenario. If USD/JPY corrects on the daily chart down towards the HA line AND GBP/USD breaks the lower channel line. This is where the GBP/JPY could resume a bearish daily trend. Remember it has not really broken the HA line but is riding it.

So we have two possible outcomes to look at. Of course we could also stay in a ranging market so that price movement would neither go up or down more than WS1/WR1 levels.

Today I will place positions in buy market/limit like 150.8 / 150.3 / 149.9 levels and open market positions when I feel price movement will move up. Time permitting of course as I will be at the beach today...

Tomorrow and Friday could be big movement days so I will look to capitalize on that.

[TraderDesk]

July 5 2013:

I am sooo tired. We left early yesterday traveling back to Estonia which means traveling with family including my 11 month old daughter who loves planes but can't stand waiting at airports(can't blame her as I hate waiting as well ).

I will finishing unpacking and getting the house somewhat normal before looking at the charts but I do see opportunities for next week coming up....

See you soon and good trading...

[TraderDesk]

July 8 2013:

Good afternoon on this very slow Monday. Days like this that I should stay out of the markets alas I see some small positions that I have to try.

GBP/JPY is super slow today. 4 hour chart is bias negative so as long as price movement stays below 151.30-50 then I will have sell limit positions.

So I will sell at market price and look for profit areas at 150.30-40 as well as 149.60-80.

Tomorrow should give me a better picture...

[TraderDesk]

July 9 2013:

Price movement on 4 hour chart broke through the HA line so I took the stop-loss in my open positions. Will wait to see what happens later today and if price stays above the 4 hour HA as well as daily HA I will start initiating buy limits as well as buy stops...

Here is the 4 hour chart showing the break of the HA line.

7-9-2013 9-02-25 AM.jpg

Just because price broke through does not mean it will carry on so I have to be careful not to fall for a reversal. Best course of action is wait for a retrace in price and see where on the chart there is a tug-of-war.

Personal note to self: Do not open positions late at night as I do much better with my late morning analysis.

[TraderDesk]

July 8 2013:

Good afternoon on this very slow Monday. Days like this that I should stay out of the markets alas I see some small positions that I have to try.

GBP/JPY is super slow today. 4 hour chart is bias negative so as long as price movement stays below 151.30-50 then I will have sell limit positions.

So I will sell at market price and look for profit areas at 150.30-40 as well as 149.60-80.

Tomorrow should give me a better picture...

Not a good day for me. What sucks is my original call yesterday was correct for both take-profit levels. I was stopped out and then took some buy positions that were s/l as well which was against my trading plan.... I am human and this is a demo so I did what I should not do but this is a good reminder to myself.

July 9 2013:

Price movement on 4 hour chart broke through the HA line so I took the stop-loss in my open positions. Will wait to see what happens later today and if price stays above the 4 hour HA as well as daily HA I will start initiating buy limits as well as buy stops...

Here is the 4 hour chart showing the break of the HA line.

7-9-2013 9-02-25 AM.jpg

Just because price broke through does not mean it will carry on so I have to be careful not to fall for a reversal. Best course of action is wait for a retrace in price and see where on the chart there is a tug-of-war.

Of course the above quote I did not listen to even though it was mine. I took a big hit because of not staying with my original plan. I do this occasionally when I am on the computer eager to trade so I jump on when I should be doing anything else.

On the demo I am using a higher amount of risk so I have to set my soft s/l levels closer but that is the way my risk management rules are....

So what did I learn today? Not be too eager and use less positions or not trade at all when I am not trading according to my price movement bias....

[spillini]

Hey ole buddy,
I got lucky and caught that move only because I had my stop above WR1. Sometimes we find a nut. Now my attention is on these higher lows forming on the 4 hr. I took a small long with a tight stop awhile ago, lets see how it goes.

Jim

July 8 2013:

Good afternoon on this very slow Monday. Days like this that I should stay out of the markets alas I see some small positions that I have to try.

GBP/JPY is super slow today. 4 hour chart is bias negative so as long as price movement stays below 151.30-50 then I will have sell limit positions.

So I will sell at market price and look for profit areas at 150.30-40 as well as 149.60-80.

Tomorrow should give me a better picture...

Not a good day for me. What sucks is my original call last night was correct for both take-profit levels. I was stopped out and then took some buy positions that were s/l as well which was against my trading plan.... I am human and this is a demo so I did what I should not do but this is a good reminder to myself.

On the demo I am using a higher amount of risk so I have to set my soft s/l levels closer but that is the way my risk management rules are....

So what did I learn today? Not be too eager and use less positions or not trade at all when I am not trading according to my price movement bias....

[TraderDesk]

Hey ole buddy,
I got lucky and caught that move only because I had my stop above WR1. Sometimes we find a nut. Now my attention is on these higher lows forming on the 4 hr. I took a small long with a tight stop awhile ago, lets see how it goes.

Jim

Hi Jim, glad to hear you were successful with today's trade. WR1 for me was just to far away with the amount of positions I had already on the table.

I see the possibility of price moving back to 151.10-20 level so if GBP/USD recovers a little then we have a higher probability of that occurring sometime tomorrow...

The 151 level seems to be a target for price movement...

[TraderDesk]

Hi TraderDesk.

Tallinn? We could meet for a coffee sometime.

J.

Tere,
Sure. When I get back from the family vacation we can meet up for coffee somewhere near Viru Keskus center.

Tere.. ( And that is about all my Eesti Keel).
Sound good .. let me know.
J.

Sent you a PM on the meetup....

[spillini]

My small long was taken out. I figured it could possibly happen after hitting the Daily.... Notice where price went??? I don't know if you are a Fib Fan or not, ( Pardon the Pun ), But I believe in them. We just hit the 68% Fib level drawn off the day. If this Daily candle comes back with avengence, it would be a beautiful little pin.


Jim

[TraderDesk]

My small long was taken out. I figured it could possibly happen after hitting the Daily.... Notice where price went??? I don't know if you are a Fib Fan or not, ( Pardon the Pun ), But I believe in them. We just hit the 68% Fib level drawn off the day. If this Daily candle comes back with avengence, it would be a beautiful little pin.


Jim

Hi Jim,

That could well happen but keep an eye on GBPUSD as that might give an indication on the next move. Right now I am trying to recoup from my last impulsive move so I intend to see if price moves move near 151 tonight or by tomorrow morning.

Then the battle begins