spillini wrote:Here's my take. We got a 4hr bullish falling wedge, Chart #1, however, I don't think we will see another touch of the bottom of the wedge. I am thinking that the falling wedge has now morphed into a descending triangle because of the 61.8% fib level, chart #2. I have a small short with pending longs hanging out all over. Looking for a move long to continue the Daily trend. Comment please.
Jim
Hmm... I have brought up my charts and I am looking at just price movement for the moment. What I see is a bearish bias on the daily, 4 hour, 1 hour and now also on the 15 minute chart it is turning bearish as well.
Also I see volatility is down quite a bit in the last 3 -4 trading days which makes a case of range bound price movement. Taking a look at the daily bars basically all last week was within the previous daily range.
So the picture looking at price movement is bearish in general though range bound.
Now I know that there is a strong correlation between GBPUSD and USDJPY but historically on most timeframes the correlation of USDJPY is stronger than GBPUSD. So I now looked at USDJPY and it is still bullish on the daily chart but barely. If this currency pair can keep itself above the daily HA line and recover somewhat I would expect GBPJPY to follow suit. To what degree remains to be seen with GBPUSD actions as well.
Future
intraday scenarios:
- So one possibility is if 150.7 level is broken then I would expect a test of the 151.7-8 level to happen.
- Another possibility is if 150.7 does not break then a test of the 149.3 level can happen.
So I need to assign probability % to both scenarios and open my trades based on that. For now I see that if price movement does
not go above 150.10 in the next hour then the probability of a move down to 149.3 level is higher then the former.
I would open an intraday bear position and look to target 149.3 level for today...
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