blahn wrote:Excellent replies, helps clear a few things up for me since I'm also a bit new to the scene. ........
My apologies. The posts by Jeuro and Raiden are correct. I overlooked the fact that the position sizes taken by the EA across all three pairs were equal, making the hedge unbalanced. Hence the hedge can be resolved into a small buy or sell for one of the pairs, and creating real profit or loss, which I assume is what you meant by 'drift'.
If the three positions were sized in such a way as to make the hedge perfectly balanced, then everything in my earlier posts apply. The ratio EUR/USD x USD/CHF = EUR/CHF means that a buy on the first two pairs, and a sell on the third (or vice versa) resolves to a ratio of 1/1. The spreadsheet image posted by Raiden illustrates the nature of the calculations needed to size the positions.
Assuming that I understand correctly, none of this invalidates my earlier point that all hedges can be broken down to a simpler set of buys and sells, and hence that the notion that the hedge
in itself can provide an edge is illusory. By creating the hedge, the trader is paying more in spread without obtaining any overall benefit, P/L wise. Also that no return is possible without commensurate risk. If I am wrong in these assumptions, can somebody please explain why; thanks.