The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[kwanann]

CCCGaming

Good, so what do you think the true direction in the next say 8 hours before nY session?

Up or down?

K

[Pedigree]

Just saw price went ding dong all over the place for GU. So what do you think the fox is doing?

K

Could it be that GU, which has been ripe for a reversal since 2 days ago, is being held in wait for the other pairs? A reversal will usually involve most pairs, if not all, but JPY pairs especially have been lagging and are only now struggling to catch up.

[kwanann]

Pedigree,

Take a look at CJ's post over at 101

http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... 675#p69675

Ring a bell now?

No? Go hop by the H4 and D1 chart, refer to my 101 if u want to for the standard trap patterns

*Edit: I've been focusing only on EU, GU and UC for the past few days, more familiar with those pairs compared to the Yen pairs. in the long term, i see them going up, no idea when that will happen.

K

[Pedigree]

What do you think of AUDUSD? I see they did 2 pushes down on 1h and 15m, but I don't see anything clear on h4, Will they go down a 3 level before continuing up? The volume seems to be at the bearish candles...
Or will they go up from where it is now? h1 candle looks pinning bulish...

You obviously missed a sell earlier on when the pin formed. I wouldn't look at it again today unless it returned to about 0.9300. It again depends on what TF you are trading and what kind of TP you are looking to set.

You always have to do what YOU are comfortable with. It is the only way to grow confidence in your style of trading. Let the market alone tell you how well your style is doing and what about it needs to change.

[McNish]

AU - Short.
RRT on H1 & Second push down; Top pin on H4, Top pins on W.
Critical level of 0.9450 as MPivot.

[Pedigree]

You obviously missed a sell earlier on when the pin formed. I wouldn't look at it again today unless it returned to about 0.9300. It again depends on what TF you are trading and what kind of TP you are looking to set.

You always have to do what YOU are comfortable with. It is the only way to grow confidence in your style of trading. Let the market alone tell you how well your style is doing and what about it needs to change.

I didn't miss it, just got shaked and stopped out.

There's a hint from the market for you right there. That was good money you literally threw away when the market was blissfully going your way. You might need to review how you set your stops if at all and for what trades.

[poconnellfx]

we might be starting to see a trapping wedge with corresponding tick volume, i am going to wait to post home starts at the top of the hour before i make a decision to stay with the trade or close out

[Ingot54]

Could it be that GU, which has been ripe for a reversal since 2 days ago, is being held in wait for the other pairs? A reversal will usually involve most pairs, if not all, but JPY pairs especially have been lagging and are only now struggling to catch up.

Do you think a reversal on JPY will come soon? I have a sell order on GBPJPY from last week, and waiting for that one to go down, it will eventually drop, the question is when and how deep it will go.

I didn't miss it, just got shaked and stopped out. Anyway, I thought AUDUSD was reversing this week to the upside, will look tomorrow again and see what they plan with this one.

Hi Lilac

I notice you are working very hard to understand and spot the tracks of the fox. Well done for the effort. You are not alone in this intense learning quest. I am still trying to "get it" myself ... and making slow progress..

I have highlighted both of your recent posts for two reasons:

1) We can not anticipate a reversal, and to expect (or hope for) one, can lead to despair and damage.
2) I thought I'd offer a tool I use to look at what the market "might" be doing over a longer TF. This might help, but only to confirm - never try to use it as a forecasting tool. In fact, you are better not using it at all, and staying naked in every respect. (Post #1 of the thread does offer some useful tools.)

Having said that, CJ has already set out (and also Kwanann, and many others now) ways to pick entries, which in effect, are reversal expectations. So in that respect I don't think we look at trades as trend or counter trend setups. I hope someone corrects me if I am wrong.

See the link at the bottom of this post for the link to the Indices Empty4 platform..

Occasionally I check to see what the Indices of all the majors are doing. If you want to see what the JPY Index is doing, just look at the GBPJPY. This pair is not called "The Beast" for nothing, as those who are learning to handle her are discovering. But she is a thing of beauty (and profit) if you can tame her.

The GBPJPY is almost a perfect proxy for the JPY Index ... so if the trend is up/down in the GJ, it will also be up/down in the YEN Index. A falling JPY Index means the xxxJPY pairs will be rising.

Now - if you want to see what the majors are doing in their "pure" form as an Index, download the Empty4 demo platform from Liteforex, at the link below. As far as I know Liteforex is the only Empty4 platform that offers the Indices, through their association with SigTrader. I put the indices up as a block of "pure charts", and I can expand any of them for a closer look.

Hope this helps - I found it about the same as the Correlation charts (CSS or Currency Slope Strength meter)

Indices.JPG

And here is the link to Liteforex if interested:

http://www.liteforex.com/downloads/Empty4/

.

[banteka]

I'm very proud to announce the results of my first day trading with Mr Captain Jack's method:

I have traded in the asian session (waiting for the break), in the LONDON session (in the STOP HUNT) and the best trade, after an 'M' in the EUR/USD pair between LONDON and US sessions.

I can only say... THANK YOU, CJ !!!!!
Both, Wins and Loses:

This is a EUR DEMO ACCOUNT

[Ingot54]

And in the charts below, you can see what I mean that the GBPJPY and the YEN Index are almost identical, correlating close to 100%.

YEN and GBPJPY.JPG

But again, it is a quick reference ... not an invitation to go long/short the xxxJPY crosses, just because the GBPJPY is doing something.

Cheers

Ivan